Next game: Nevada (-5) at San Jose State
Power ratings: Nevada (60th, -0.2) at SJSU (96th, 7.8) = projected spread of -5
Not really sure where to start here because my info is all over the place. Let's just start with...
Wolfpack O vs. Spartan D --> Cody Fajardo is a beast. If he doesn't beat you with his arm (29/39, 321 yds, 3 tds, 0 ints vs. Zona) then he beats you with his legs (16 carries, 100 yards vs. Wash St).
Last year, Fajardo beat SJSU with both @ 75%/7.4 ypa/104 rush yards. Suffice to say, looks like his senior year will be his best yet.
Spartan D with terrible stats: #122 def ypc, #15 def ypa but this includes 2 games vs. Minny backup RsFresh QB (7 attmpts) + North Dakota.
Coming off a bye, Nevada will be heavily focused on pounding SJSU. Their coaches clearly know how to play to the defenses' weaknesses as evidenced by 2 completely different game plans vs. Arizona and Washington State.
SJSU also small on DL. Starting DTs weigh 280 + 285. Starting DEs weigh 252+258.
Spartan O vs. Wolfpack D --> Not a big fan of what happened in previous years, but LY Nevada fwiw did hold SJSU top 2 RBs to 3.9 ypc.
Nevada got beat by Arizona's speed they won't face vs. SJSU, but held Wash State to 6.8 ypa, 1 TD, 2 ints. Also 2.1 ypc in that game.
Blake Jurich takes over for SJSU this year. Got off to great start vs. North Dakota, but Nevada is not North Dakota. Last game vs. average Minny defense: 14/29, 48%, 5.6 ypa, 2 ints.
Here is what SJSU weighs on their starting OL from LT to RT: 302, 290, 291, 289, 290. Might add a lot of those guys are tall and have thin frames.
We still have to stay disciplined to the power ratings here as 5 points is still a fairly difficult spread to cover for a lot of road teams. But I think Nevada is much better last season, they are coming off a bye, and they have the better athletes on both sides of the ball.
I suggest a 1-2 unit play for you. Making Nevada -5 a 1 unit play for myself. Add it to the card. 