Looking to take some momentum into week 6. Killed it this weekend. Won 10K. Hit my 8-team parlay for 8K (posted). Not a fan of the NFL card this week, but I love some college games including what will be my biggest play of year. Here is goes: Southern Miss +5.5 -- This line started at 7 & is going down quick. I live 30 minutes from Huntington, WV. This Marshall team is not good this year. They lost a ton from last year. Beat Southern Miss 63-17 last year but only favored by 5.5 at home? interesting. I grabbed the ML at +215 it's already down to +180. I think they win this game straight up. Marshall got lucky to beat and cover vs Purdue. Their QB threw 2 pick 6's. Marshall will be facing the best QB they've faced all season, who just won CUSA player of the week. Southern Miss has been tested. They lost to Miss State but competed, getting outgained by only 30 yards. They also came back on the road at Nebraska to make it competitive. Marshall is an undisciplined defense who struggles to stop the run. Their QB is not good enough to keep up & make plays in this one. Marshall's best RB Devon Johnson, who averaged like 8YPC last year, is also out for this one. Southern Miss wins this game 34-26 & this is my biggest play of the season.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Looking to take some momentum into week 6. Killed it this weekend. Won 10K. Hit my 8-team parlay for 8K (posted). Not a fan of the NFL card this week, but I love some college games including what will be my biggest play of year. Here is goes: Southern Miss +5.5 -- This line started at 7 & is going down quick. I live 30 minutes from Huntington, WV. This Marshall team is not good this year. They lost a ton from last year. Beat Southern Miss 63-17 last year but only favored by 5.5 at home? interesting. I grabbed the ML at +215 it's already down to +180. I think they win this game straight up. Marshall got lucky to beat and cover vs Purdue. Their QB threw 2 pick 6's. Marshall will be facing the best QB they've faced all season, who just won CUSA player of the week. Southern Miss has been tested. They lost to Miss State but competed, getting outgained by only 30 yards. They also came back on the road at Nebraska to make it competitive. Marshall is an undisciplined defense who struggles to stop the run. Their QB is not good enough to keep up & make plays in this one. Marshall's best RB Devon Johnson, who averaged like 8YPC last year, is also out for this one. Southern Miss wins this game 34-26 & this is my biggest play of the season.
Georgia Tech +7.5-- I love the spot here for Georgia Tech. They've lost 3 straight & Clemson coming off big win over Notre Dame where they barely hung on. I expect Clemson to come out flat here. Georgia Tech should have success on the ground and eat up clock. I think they have a shot to win this game SU. Other than the first 5 minutes of last game, I haven't been overly impressed at all at what I've seen from Clemson. Notre Dame outgained them by 140 yards but couldn't cap the comeback. Their QB is a playmaker when on the edge but not a good passer. I could see this game being 34-31 either way & catching more than a TD I see a lot of value here. GT was up 21-0 last game before blowing it. I don't think they're as bad as their record I expect them to come out really pi$$ed off and run down Clemson's throat.
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Georgia Tech +7.5-- I love the spot here for Georgia Tech. They've lost 3 straight & Clemson coming off big win over Notre Dame where they barely hung on. I expect Clemson to come out flat here. Georgia Tech should have success on the ground and eat up clock. I think they have a shot to win this game SU. Other than the first 5 minutes of last game, I haven't been overly impressed at all at what I've seen from Clemson. Notre Dame outgained them by 140 yards but couldn't cap the comeback. Their QB is a playmaker when on the edge but not a good passer. I could see this game being 34-31 either way & catching more than a TD I see a lot of value here. GT was up 21-0 last game before blowing it. I don't think they're as bad as their record I expect them to come out really pi$$ed off and run down Clemson's throat.
Missouri +4 vs Florida--- Florida's last three games they won ugly at Kentucky, beat Tennesee thanks to some choke job coaching decisions, & beat the brakes off a good Ole Miss team at home. I don't expect Florida to come out w/ the energy they did last week. Flat/let down spot whatever you want to call it. Mizzou might win this game w/ their good defense. I could see 20-17 either way. Mizzou's coach is a covering machine & I love this spot, also see public pounding Florida too.
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Missouri +4 vs Florida--- Florida's last three games they won ugly at Kentucky, beat Tennesee thanks to some choke job coaching decisions, & beat the brakes off a good Ole Miss team at home. I don't expect Florida to come out w/ the energy they did last week. Flat/let down spot whatever you want to call it. Mizzou might win this game w/ their good defense. I could see 20-17 either way. Mizzou's coach is a covering machine & I love this spot, also see public pounding Florida too.
Nobody ever responds to my $hit but that doesn't matter I enjoy tracking my posts so gonna post my parlays I have for the week already. Chiefs -3 vs Bears Rams/Packers OVER 38 Broncos at Raiders +9 Southern Miss +10 at Marshall BYU -1 vs East Carolina Navy +23 at Notre Dame Michigan -2 vs Northwestern Missouri +10 vs Florida 500 to win 4680.
Southern Miss ML +215
185 to win 397.
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Seattle Seahawks -5 Detroit/Seattle UNDER 51 Browns +12 Browns/Ravens UNDER 52 Chiefs -5 Raiders +8 Southern Miss +8 Oklahoma State +13 BYU -2 Michigan -3 Georgia Tech +11
Seattle ML Chiefs ML Southern Miss ML BYU ML Tulsa ML Georgia Tech ML Mizzou ML Utah ML
100 to win 8300.
Thoughts are questions are welcomed.
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Nobody ever responds to my $hit but that doesn't matter I enjoy tracking my posts so gonna post my parlays I have for the week already. Chiefs -3 vs Bears Rams/Packers OVER 38 Broncos at Raiders +9 Southern Miss +10 at Marshall BYU -1 vs East Carolina Navy +23 at Notre Dame Michigan -2 vs Northwestern Missouri +10 vs Florida 500 to win 4680.
Southern Miss ML +215
185 to win 397.
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Seattle Seahawks -5 Detroit/Seattle UNDER 51 Browns +12 Browns/Ravens UNDER 52 Chiefs -5 Raiders +8 Southern Miss +8 Oklahoma State +13 BYU -2 Michigan -3 Georgia Tech +11
Degen, I too live very close to Marshall and S Miss is my favorite play this week. Marshall is no where near the team they were last year mostly due to QB play. Marshall defenses have generally sucked for several years now, and this year is no exception. You are dead on, S Miss QB is the real deal. I look for a Straight up win too. Would love to get the line at +7 but I will be taking SMiss at PK.
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Degen, I too live very close to Marshall and S Miss is my favorite play this week. Marshall is no where near the team they were last year mostly due to QB play. Marshall defenses have generally sucked for several years now, and this year is no exception. You are dead on, S Miss QB is the real deal. I look for a Straight up win too. Would love to get the line at +7 but I will be taking SMiss at PK.
Georgia Tech +7.5-- I love the spot here for Georgia Tech. They've lost 3 straight & Clemson coming off big win over Notre Dame where they barely hung on. I expect Clemson to come out flat here. Georgia Tech should have success on the ground and eat up clock. I think they have a shot to win this game SU. Other than the first 5 minutes of last game, I haven't been overly impressed at all at what I've seen from Clemson. Notre Dame outgained them by 140 yards but couldn't cap the comeback. Their QB is a playmaker when on the edge but not a good passer. I could see this game being 34-31 either way & catching more than a TD I see a lot of value here. GT was up 21-0 last game before blowing it. I don't think they're as bad as their record I expect them to come out really pi$$ed off and run down Clemson's throat.
I agree with your analysis except. I watched the GT game last week," was my only posted loss". They were, maybe still are, a very beat up team, and the commentators were stating they were down to playing walk ons at some positions. Do not know what the injury report is this week, just saying, they should have easily covered last week.
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Quote Originally Posted by DegenCurtis21:
Georgia Tech +7.5-- I love the spot here for Georgia Tech. They've lost 3 straight & Clemson coming off big win over Notre Dame where they barely hung on. I expect Clemson to come out flat here. Georgia Tech should have success on the ground and eat up clock. I think they have a shot to win this game SU. Other than the first 5 minutes of last game, I haven't been overly impressed at all at what I've seen from Clemson. Notre Dame outgained them by 140 yards but couldn't cap the comeback. Their QB is a playmaker when on the edge but not a good passer. I could see this game being 34-31 either way & catching more than a TD I see a lot of value here. GT was up 21-0 last game before blowing it. I don't think they're as bad as their record I expect them to come out really pi$$ed off and run down Clemson's throat.
I agree with your analysis except. I watched the GT game last week," was my only posted loss". They were, maybe still are, a very beat up team, and the commentators were stating they were down to playing walk ons at some positions. Do not know what the injury report is this week, just saying, they should have easily covered last week.
BYU, Navy, Michigan those are parlay plays where I adjusted the line, which you can do on 5dimes. You can get whatever line you want. Which is one of the many reasons it's the best book out there. Variety. Click on parlay, click the tab & choose whatever line you want.
I think BYU has a good enough defense to shut down East Carolina's dink & dunk passing game. Don't think it's a good matchup for them. BYU is far more physical & better coached.
I am 5-0 on Michigan games this year. I've bet the under all year & it's covered easily. Harbaugh has great defensive teams & a conservative offense that pounds the running game and takes up TOP. I'm gonna jump on that under even though it's only 35. I could see a 20-10 Michigan win there, if it gets that high. Going to continue to play the unders until they prove me otherwise. Northwestern's games have all been low-scoring too.
I like parlays and teasers way better than single bets. Although I do both. Feel like there's more to gain from parlays, but not fun losing the last game of the parlay which has happened to me a few times this year. Mainly Monday Night Football games which I'm done playing. They've all been ugly.
Not concerned with Mauk being out. Lock is more than capable of running the offense. Mauk out isn't a big down grade at all. He isn't that good. Meanwhile, Mizzou's defense is going to put on a show in this one. Huge let down spot for Florida I don't see them scoring 20+. Keep in mind Florida has @LSU on deck, too. Tough sandwich spot for them. And I think public pounds Florida, regardless like they did Ole Miss last week.
I think getting more than a full TD with GT will be fine. Clemson hasn't proven much to me. They'll walk around campus thinking they're the $hit all week from beating Notre Dame and crap the bed on Saturday. 3 point game either way. This is a must win game for Georgia Tech after losing 3 straight. And I don't expect Clemson to match the intensity they had vs Notre Dame. They're number 6 in the nation right now. That's a bloody joke. The ACC is not a good conference.
I will post my other plays and write ups later.
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BYU, Navy, Michigan those are parlay plays where I adjusted the line, which you can do on 5dimes. You can get whatever line you want. Which is one of the many reasons it's the best book out there. Variety. Click on parlay, click the tab & choose whatever line you want.
I think BYU has a good enough defense to shut down East Carolina's dink & dunk passing game. Don't think it's a good matchup for them. BYU is far more physical & better coached.
I am 5-0 on Michigan games this year. I've bet the under all year & it's covered easily. Harbaugh has great defensive teams & a conservative offense that pounds the running game and takes up TOP. I'm gonna jump on that under even though it's only 35. I could see a 20-10 Michigan win there, if it gets that high. Going to continue to play the unders until they prove me otherwise. Northwestern's games have all been low-scoring too.
I like parlays and teasers way better than single bets. Although I do both. Feel like there's more to gain from parlays, but not fun losing the last game of the parlay which has happened to me a few times this year. Mainly Monday Night Football games which I'm done playing. They've all been ugly.
Not concerned with Mauk being out. Lock is more than capable of running the offense. Mauk out isn't a big down grade at all. He isn't that good. Meanwhile, Mizzou's defense is going to put on a show in this one. Huge let down spot for Florida I don't see them scoring 20+. Keep in mind Florida has @LSU on deck, too. Tough sandwich spot for them. And I think public pounds Florida, regardless like they did Ole Miss last week.
I think getting more than a full TD with GT will be fine. Clemson hasn't proven much to me. They'll walk around campus thinking they're the $hit all week from beating Notre Dame and crap the bed on Saturday. 3 point game either way. This is a must win game for Georgia Tech after losing 3 straight. And I don't expect Clemson to match the intensity they had vs Notre Dame. They're number 6 in the nation right now. That's a bloody joke. The ACC is not a good conference.
Good call on Kentucky a couple weeks ago. I hopped on them vs Mizzou.
Southern Miss is also 5-0 ATS. Marshall got outgained by about 150 yards on the road vs Kent State. Without Cato & Shuler, their offense is really struggling. USM has been outscored like 128-30 the last two games vs Marshall. Yet Marshall is only favored by 5 and continues to go down despite public being on Marshall. After playing @ Nebraska, I don't think playing in front of a small Marshall stadium on the road will intimidate them. Doc Holliday said it will be the toughest matchup Marshall's defense has faced all year. Marshall has a tendency to make stupid penalties keeping drives alive. They're a team of thugs. Vegas is BEGGING for Marshall money here. Mullens threw for 447 yards on Nebraska. I think they load the box & force Marshall's QB to beat him with his arm. And I think he'll make more mistakes. To be honest with you I'd be shocked if Marshall won this game. They might be up at half, but in the third quarter they'll flop. I know this team well. They were great last year. They haven't played the quality of competition Southern Miss has & this is the best team they've faced all year.
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Train
Good call on Kentucky a couple weeks ago. I hopped on them vs Mizzou.
Southern Miss is also 5-0 ATS. Marshall got outgained by about 150 yards on the road vs Kent State. Without Cato & Shuler, their offense is really struggling. USM has been outscored like 128-30 the last two games vs Marshall. Yet Marshall is only favored by 5 and continues to go down despite public being on Marshall. After playing @ Nebraska, I don't think playing in front of a small Marshall stadium on the road will intimidate them. Doc Holliday said it will be the toughest matchup Marshall's defense has faced all year. Marshall has a tendency to make stupid penalties keeping drives alive. They're a team of thugs. Vegas is BEGGING for Marshall money here. Mullens threw for 447 yards on Nebraska. I think they load the box & force Marshall's QB to beat him with his arm. And I think he'll make more mistakes. To be honest with you I'd be shocked if Marshall won this game. They might be up at half, but in the third quarter they'll flop. I know this team well. They were great last year. They haven't played the quality of competition Southern Miss has & this is the best team they've faced all year.
After miserable back to back 3-9 ATS years in 2012 and 2013 they improved a bit in 2014 (5-7 ats) this year have turned the corner. should look at this team every week.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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Southern Miss:
After miserable back to back 3-9 ATS years in 2012 and 2013 they improved a bit in 2014 (5-7 ats) this year have turned the corner. should look at this team every week.
Couldn't tell you man since I don't bet straight bets, usually. I've done really well at College but struggled at NFL early. Usually it's the opposite. Things are starting to fall into place & teams are showing their true identifies so it's going to get easier from here on out.
Added
Southern Miss +6.5
550/500
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Bills ML Chiefs ML Pats ML Southern Miss +7 Michigan/Northwestern UNDER 43
1000 to win 4928.
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Marshall RB Devon Johnson practiced today & could play Friday. He's questionable for Friday but leaning towards playing. This is big for Marshall as he's their best offensive player. But the QB comparison is still a huge miss match for Marshall. This balanced offense of USM will give Marshall trouble. Nick Mullens is 3xxxx better than anyone's Marshall''s faced all year. Your looking at a team who's on the rise, & a team who's on the decline here.
Worth noting: Marshall is 0-1 on a short week (Ohio). I was on Ohio ML in that game.
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Couldn't tell you man since I don't bet straight bets, usually. I've done really well at College but struggled at NFL early. Usually it's the opposite. Things are starting to fall into place & teams are showing their true identifies so it's going to get easier from here on out.
Added
Southern Miss +6.5
550/500
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Bills ML Chiefs ML Pats ML Southern Miss +7 Michigan/Northwestern UNDER 43
1000 to win 4928.
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Marshall RB Devon Johnson practiced today & could play Friday. He's questionable for Friday but leaning towards playing. This is big for Marshall as he's their best offensive player. But the QB comparison is still a huge miss match for Marshall. This balanced offense of USM will give Marshall trouble. Nick Mullens is 3xxxx better than anyone's Marshall''s faced all year. Your looking at a team who's on the rise, & a team who's on the decline here.
Worth noting: Marshall is 0-1 on a short week (Ohio). I was on Ohio ML in that game.
as a southern miss alumni (and long time lurker here) i am glad you think so highly of USM. I was a bit worried we would have a let down spot so this gives me encouragement. We should have beat nebraska(FWIW) down 22-0 at the half and still had a chance to win. Frankly, we should have beaten Miss. State. I wish that would have been our 2nd or 3rd game.
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as a southern miss alumni (and long time lurker here) i am glad you think so highly of USM. I was a bit worried we would have a let down spot so this gives me encouragement. We should have beat nebraska(FWIW) down 22-0 at the half and still had a chance to win. Frankly, we should have beaten Miss. State. I wish that would have been our 2nd or 3rd game.
Utah -7 vs California--Cal comes into this game 5-0 w/ a brutal schedule coming up. They have @ Utah, @ UCLA, USC, @ Oregon. Pretty nasty. They have a great QB who has been one of the best in all of football. And their win over Washington on the road looks a little better after tonight when they beat USC on road as 17 point dogs. Anyways, football games are won in the trenches. Utah is a more physical team in the trenches & Goff will see pressure for the first time all year. Utah has great special teams, a good running game, a great turnover margin, & a very good head coach. I think Utah runs down Cals throat & comes up with a few more stops. 38-23 UTAH.
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Utah -7 vs California--Cal comes into this game 5-0 w/ a brutal schedule coming up. They have @ Utah, @ UCLA, USC, @ Oregon. Pretty nasty. They have a great QB who has been one of the best in all of football. And their win over Washington on the road looks a little better after tonight when they beat USC on road as 17 point dogs. Anyways, football games are won in the trenches. Utah is a more physical team in the trenches & Goff will see pressure for the first time all year. Utah has great special teams, a good running game, a great turnover margin, & a very good head coach. I think Utah runs down Cals throat & comes up with a few more stops. 38-23 UTAH.
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