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***Week 6 Plays w/ Write Ups & POY***

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Posted: #26
I'm pumped for tomorrow. I still like Southern Miss as much as I did. I think I'm going to go to the game in Huntington. This is my biggest play of the year. I've got 5-6K riding on Southern Miss for what it's worth. They're going to win 34-26.

They really miss Cato. Their freshman QB is just not that good and RB Devon Johnson is banged up. He's questionable, but if he plays I don't think it'll be much because he's not 100%. Their freshman QB, Chase Litton, also tweeted "rookie season would've never seen this coming." I think he's under pressure and will throw 2 or more INTs. Everything about the line tells me Vegas is begging for Marshall money. The ML has also gone down from +230 to +170 on my book. Last time I remember seeing one drop so fast was when the Jets beat the Colts.



Bet at your own risk, but take it what it it's worth. If I lose I'll be back to own up to it.
 
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Posted: #27
I am with you on S Miss and really like their TT of over 26.5 more than the side as you have an out, in the event their defense gets torched. But it's definitely a good price on the ML as I don't think people realize how raw Marshall's true fresh QB is.

On the Clemson game, while I agree with you that it's a natural spot for a letdown, there are a lot of positive factors that trend toward Clemson, with the top thing being that they lost last year 28-6 at GT, so they are already going to be on high alert, and not walking around campus like they just won the Natl Title. That's a big deal in any letdown spot to be able to play that card and I am sure they have been reminded of that all week...The other thing is GT's strength, running the ball, plays into Clemson's strength, which is stopping it. GT has been banged up all year in the backfield and you can see why they aren't their normal selves with Skov having to carry it more than anyone, and this is probably the slowest backfield they have ever had. He should be having 5-6 carries a game, not in the mid teens. When you are as bad as GT is on defense, and you are sputtering running the ball against a good run Defense, it's going to be hard to win. This GT team isn't very good, evidence by last week's home beating by a mediocre UNC team. I think Clemson wins going away by a couple touchdowns.

What I do like coming out of the Clemson-ND game though for a letdown spot is ND. This is Navy's Super Bowl, and they have been very efficient on offense. I will take 14 points all day long against a young QB and a team who most likely saw their #1 goal of making the playoffs slip away last week.

Good luck and good writeups. Pulling for you on S Miss.
 
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Posted: #28
GT sucks
 
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Posted: #29
Sorry Curtis but as a Raiders fan I think you have too much father in them. We can easily get blown out by Peyton. Carr only threw for 196 and 1 INT vs weak bears D. Cant see him putting up more than 14 on this broncos D. May be enough to cover in between your number but Raiders always disappoint. I will be fading my team this week but BOL Only got 70 yard on the ground last week and Broncos could limit Murray for sure forcing Carr to beat them thru the air which I doubt he'll have much success doing. I can see GT showing up and Clemmy sleepwalking 
 
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Posted: #30
I like your style..
 
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Posted: #31
GL  Nice write up. Send you a friend request
 
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Posted: #32
Man, you got a ton riding on your parlays and teasers, most all involving the same teams.  One of them slips up and...yikes.

Good luck though, enjoy reading your analysis.  You may well have talked me into a S. Miss bet. 
 
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Posted: #33
I actually posted a thread on the Marshall?Miss game looking for insight and then I found your thread.  I though Marshall was the clear fav in this game, guess not.  Miss's ML on my book is at 2.55 to win outright, I think its worthwhile to pick them  Thanks for the heads p everyone
 
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Posted: #34
You're right I probably did bunch too many of same teams in my parlay. But Southern Miss is my best play all season & I got them at 7. The lines all the way down to 3 now. Good sign. A lot of people have told me they don't like Georgia Tech. GT started season ranked really high & are still a good team. Last week's loss was really tough blowing a 21-0 lead. They have the number 1 pass defense in the ACC and I'm not sold on Clemson's QB throwing the ball. He'll top out at 180 yards through the air. Expecting Clemson to be a real square play this week. "They just beat Notre Dame & Georgia Tech just lost to a bad NC team" not so fast my friend. Georgia Tech has a better coach in Paul Johnson and will get things going this week. Expecting Clemson to come out asleep. Taking GT 1st half too.
 
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Posted: #35
Trey, the Raiders were in a tough spot last week. Coming off a win on road going b2b on road as road favorites vs a winless Bears team who was hungry. If that TD doesn't get overturned they win that game. It was close. The Raiders are an improving team. Murray played his worst game of season & I expect him to bounce back. Aldon Smith & second year LB (forget name) will get pressure on a slow, weak-armed Peyton manning. The Broncos O-line is soft around the edges. They have no run game. Broncos are lucky to be 4-0. Certainly won't go undefeated. Their defense is best in NFL but I think the Raiders can make enough plays to win here. They'll force turnovers on a declining Peyton Mannimg and will be pumped up at home after a loss in a division game vs undefeated team. Don't bet against your boys this week....
 
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Posted: #36
Dont think Cle will have much of a letdown as GT beat them last year. GL...
 
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Posted: #37
That SM comeback on Neb was a smokescreen....Neb had alot of back ups in and really Neb isn't that good.....

Lot's of Marshall Hating ITT 

Guess we will see I agree with a lot of the statements they did lose a lot and the Freshman QB could make mistakes......But Kent has a solid D check out their ratings and the RB for Marshall Pittman has been tearing it up, Will be a good game Good luck with the bet....
 
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Posted: #38
this is my biggest play of the SEASON

Wow Nice Call Bro BOL
 
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Posted: #39

Mike-   Agree 100% on Southern Miss TT OVER. Love that play. With you on Navy, too. Love backing Navy in this spot getting 2 TDs. Too many points.

irefusetolose-

Mauka- Will look at it (just look at it).

Alomar- No problem.

Prophet- Good luck to you, sir. I like it.

 

 

 
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Posted: #40
Right there with you on So Miss, my write up hit alot of the same points just feels like a very odd spot as a strong fav for marsh. hope you grabbed at the +10. it was late coming line for me got +5 +180 ML, still very happy and took it the second it posted. 

And nobody responds to my stuff except Lionmaster (Thanks!) and a couple others. I think when you hit solid points in a write up and nothing glaring to refute or generate discussion you're not going to get alot of feedback so take it as the people who read it have no comments....but to be honest i think most folks dont care about the labor its just show me the baby. haha. i appreciate the thoughts.
 
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Posted: #41
Also don't be suprised if Devon Johnson is playing tonight...heard some intel from Marshall people....I am a Marshall Grad and my folks still live in the area....sure won't affect your bet just FYI.....good luck..
 
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Posted: #42
Bride, I try to write up opinions and facts on my plays rather than just posting. It's good to see we see eye to eye. We're one hour from kickoff. Rain probably favors Marshall. Shouldn't be too bad though.

Snuff, Devon Johnson will suit up and play. This is big for Marshall. He's a beast. But one or two tough hits could have him feeling banged up. Definitely a positive impact for Marshall. Their running game will earn yards, I just think Southern Miss' QB makes more plays.
 
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Posted: #43
Wow Wow Wow!!!
 
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Posted: #44
Suckered me in on SM as well. Fuckin awful! 
 
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Posted: #45
Can't make this $hit up. Lost over 6000 on this game. Down over 20K in my life. Missed 21 yard field goals, jumping offsides on FG attempts,7 trips inside of Marshall 30 and 0 points. I apologize to anyone who tailed. This night sums it up for me. Pretty unlucky. 1st and goal from 5 twice no points. Again I'm sorry if you tailed. Didn't know Southern Miss QB was this bad. Drop touchdowns, pick 6's, you name it its happened. They still out gained Marshall by 150 yards. And lose game on 31-3 run. I'm disgusted and my weekend is ruined.
 
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Posted: #46
Herd at home .....sorry tough beat....
 
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Posted: #47
same... 

cant blame him i placed the bet though.. 

i never learn my lessons to fade GOYs on forums.. more often than not they lose 
 
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Posted: #48
Lost mad dough on your play of the year. Can anyone hit a fucking play of the year on here? Just gonna fade all those.
 
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Posted: #49
Tough beat my friend, way to take it like a man. 

We all have tough losses and big wins, just remember... Money management is the key to being successful. Cant roll 6K on a bet after winning 10 and expect to be successful in the long run. 

Keep your head up and best of luck
 
 
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Posted: #50
I apologize people. From bottom of my heart. I can't explain. I thought I capped the game right. A missed 21 yard field goal, jumps offsides on Marshall FG giving them a touchdown, Go up 7-0 then outscored 31-3 rest of game, dropped touchdowns, outgain Marshall by 162 yards, refs all over Marshall.

Last 8 drives:

Missed 21 yard FG
Turnover on Downs
Fumble
Fumble
Downs
Interception
Downs
Fumble

Five of those drives were in Marshall Red zone and get no points. I wish I could pay you all back. I feel like a friggin loser. I lost 6K on this game. All I need was a couple TDs when it was 1st and goal at 5 three times. Got nothing. Can't make this up man. Marshall is not a good team. Had everything go their way tonight.

I'm gonna go sit by myself and drink. Bashing is deserved. I deserve it and I understand. I apologize again. :(
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