@Boisestateand8
I know Fres looks bad but I suggest you pass. Purdue +30 is way better bet.
Nevada needs to play lesser teams than Fresno at such a low line. Nevada is not here yet but Improving.
+3 for Nevada is not a good line in my opinion. NEV stats and run game looks way better than it should. They beat Troy, Oregon St, Purdue, E. Wash, SDSU, and Idaho. They lost to Georgia Southern, Minn and SJSt.
Fresno look bad because they had a terrible game to UNLV and was in a battle last week as a small dog to Wazzu. Nevada is way worse that Fresno's last 2 opponents, Fresno should take care of business this week.
@spottie2935
I appreciate your take. I follow the MWC pretty closely, which you might expect being a Boise fan. I wouldn't think of playing against Fresno if Jeff Tedford hadn't resigned for health reasons right before the season started. But their three wins have come against FCS Sacramento St., New Mexico St., (both at home) and at New Mexico, and the Lobos outgained them by 140 yards!
Nevada is far better than they've been the last two years under first year head coach Jeff Choate. He's from the Bronco family tree, and was on the short list to coach Boise when Bryan Harsin left for Auburn. I don't think the Bulldogs can stop the Wolfpack run game. The only team that has is Minnesota.
Having said all that, there ARE games tomorrow that I like better, but I'll be watching the line moves on tonight's games. I wouldn't play Nevada at anything under +3, and right now it's just a lean. But if it were to move to 3' or 4.....I might get to feeling froggy and hop on. As for Purdue, anything over 28 is very tempting. Just waiting to see how high it goes. 
Okay fair enough on the Fresno stats. Now have you been the Fresno season lines from past games? And Nevada too? The books have valuations and combine the stats and valuations and it makes a current valuation and a bet or pass from me. I see Fresno laying points and double digit points and my valuation strengthens. Maybe it’s wrong because the valuation is not current. Could be because of past seasons and Fresno is not in a good position this season.
To me the line has dropped so far, it’s either Fresno is in a decent situation or Fresno is just free falling this season. As it stands I think I would take Fresno or pass. Fresno got thrashed by A good opponent 2 games ago, lost a close on last game. If they fail here then case close or fade material.
Adding MARYLAND +7' over USC - Long road trip for the Trojans, who blew a two TD lead to Penn St and lost in OT. The Terps aren't as bad as they looked last week vs Northwestern. I think they rise up here on Homecoming.
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