i am always afraid that Clemson/Oregon/etc. will "wake up" one day and have an offense 80% as good as their great recent offenses (oregon maybe very good.
but i can't see a high profile, struggling QB at a massive program not having serious issues with a completely revved up crowd and an opposing team on a massive roll.
I'd love to hear your opinion on ole miss vs lsu. With orgeron being let go but at seasons end how do you see that playing out. Either team will rally behind him and send him out a winner or just lay down. Ive been reading lots of posts about his off the field antics. Also how players don't like playing for him and coaches don't like coaching under him. I find that hard to believe because they played hard Saturday.
FWIW, the LSU team knew what was going to happen with Ogeron before the Florida game, so they won't be "rallying" any more this week than they were last (and know also that many were "rallying" to get rid of Coach O in the first place). They may be more relaxed now that all of the off-field stuff is out in the open now. Who knows. What I do know is that LSU had just about everything that could possibly go right go right against the Gators, and it still took atrocious UF quarterback play to get them over the finish line. They really struggled to get Florida off the field on defense, and I don't expect the Rebs to self-destruct. Still, LSU has historically played very well in Oxford, though I do feel like Ole Miss will eventually just outscore them here.
Ole Miss / LSU
* like your thinking MJ .....likely $$ to be made off this fiasco ha... LSU (should) get their azz kicked. That Maine Road has it figured out, no surprise there ..... The only thing that makes sense, is that the players knew *before* that game. Had to be talk - players usually know what's going on.
Looking at their timeline, here's what I would expect :
@ Ole Miss - come out strong - then fade / unable to keep up --- I don't wanna lay 10+ ...maybe in-game or halftime
> BYE <
@ Alabama - ??
Hogs - FADE
ULM - FADE
A&M - last game at home? play hard for awhile? - then lose interest late?
Okie St / Iowa St - *raw* numbers say about 8' or so .... so if you like OSU, I don't think it goes anywhere but up. For me Cyclones or nuthin' here for sure. May peak at 7' tho ?
Clemson / Pitt - no chance in hell, I would EVER take Pitt and lay points to Clemson. For me it's an under play -then Clemson (maybe) at 3+ . Your point that if Tigers were gonna return to past form - it would have come after the bye, vs the Cuse - makes sense. And it is possible that their decline could continue here - but I don't think so.
$ an in-game / halftime play on Pitt makes sense for sure tho - Clemson don't come out strong early? - don't think they 'find it' 2H.
Careful with any bets on Ole Miss with Kiffin saying Matt Corral is really banged up and may not play. Corral rushed 30 times against Tennessee and he’s a mess. He still might play but he can’t run and that is a huge part of the Ole Miss offense, he ran for almost 200 yards last week. I hit the under 75.5 on that game as soon as I heard that.
@bookieassassin
Love your threads, always take into consideration before I make my plays. A&M has 2 home games left after this week, Auburn on 11/6 ( I will be there lol) and PV A&M on 11/20.
I know the "sharp" play is probably IaSt bc public seems to be on OkSt, but are they really that much better than OkSt? Does OkSt not get up for this game? Gundy isn't dumb, I feel like they will be ready to play. Maybe OkSt is still getting undervalued? Just some of my thoughts on the game. BOL and keep doing what you're doing brother!
@DrStrangelove
One thing to consider...In September, Ok St. beat Kansas State at home 31 to 20. Kansas State had its 3rd string QB who had like a 37 QBR in that game, because Thompson and the backup were hurt. Iowa State beat Kansas State 33 to 20 against KSU QB 1st string Skylar Thompson, this past Saturday. I think the market perceives Ok St success to date as a mirage, thus the TD. Thus, Ok St is over ranked, and Iowa State is under ranked... The real Big XII challenger to OU will emerge on Saturday, with a DD victory by Iowa State, in my opinion...After the LaLa loss in 2020, and then the 3 point loss at Ok St, Iowa State got better during the season, which ended with a blowout of a respectable Oregon team. I see that trend happening again. I don't understand why, but I see the parallels of both seasons...I am on Iowa State -6.5. I will post my selections later...Ok State's luck will run out on Saturday...and Iowa State will win and cover. I think Iowa State is good up to -7, but I would not go over that bedrock number...
That plus the opening line was Iowa State -4 and now its Iowa State -7. The touts and the public seem to be all over Ok St. And why wouldn't they...Just beat a ranked Texas Team on the road, have a top 10 ranking, while Iowa State is not ranked. It appears that 75% to 80% of the public is on Ok State, a public road dog, with early reverse line movement...What does that tell you? It validates for me that I am on the right side of this wager...
Im not 100% but i believe Oklahoma state was a 2.5 point fav at home last year.... They won and covered and total was under 47.5
Bit of revenge factor for Cyclones.... and ive seen undefeated teams go to Ames before and lose. But yea.... Really high line. GOY lines had this at Iowa St -8.5.... so the line is about right with pre-season expectations.
added a few, some juiced a bit
70-42 so far - 31/47 run
* 1H 17-6 / 2H 5-3
Ohio St -18'
Iowa St -6
Oreg St +3'
Kan St +1
West Virginia +5
Texas St +10'
App St 1H +3
-------------
Wisky -3
Nevada +3'
E Caro +14
Temple +3
La Tech +7
leans SJSU Memphis? Toledo Minny NW ? N Ill Col Air Force
Southwest Texas State ?-
why not - is a better question .......
* consistently undervalued , covering 8/10 as dog ..... played BAYLOR tough (20-27 before last minute safety) >> lost 25% of team to covid vs IWU and EM ..... then beat a pretty good S Bama - and was up on a tough Troy 28-24 before last minute Troy TD. GSU a weak pass D, with only ONE pick / 15 TD - so a favorable matchup for QB BM. Looks like the last team with the ball wins kinda game to me. Plus they OWN GSU ha ....won 2 of last 3 SU / 3-0 ATS
Rockets ? -
at first glance the better team (maybe) at home gettin' points- backs to the wall with the much better D. I had it at Rockets -1' or so just just checking it out further. Toledo seems to do this every year - tough non-conference games followed by a few nice wins - a few early MAC losses, followed by a late season bounce-back.
Iowa State ? Pretty much eggzactly like Babe Ruth did in the '32 World Series ..... I'm calling my own 500 ft homer over the CF wall .......
Cyclones will win the B12
* homecoming beatdown vs the Stillwater Mullets
* close W @ WV
* kick Texas' azz at home
* ditto in Lubbock
* whip OU away (maybe ha)
* barely beat TCU at home
Okie St?
* win tough game @ WV
* struggle vs TCU
* close W at TT
* will beat OU (if they beat Iowa St week before) - lose if OU loses to ISU
Established in 1995,
I agree, and am really liking Oregon St, K-State, and Tex St as live Dogs this week to bring a lot of energy. Best of Luck with your card and mahalo. 
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