week 8

I will start here.  This is from a few weeks back.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBPv5VaQfTU

Michael Irvin describes how bad the line was for the CU vs UCF game.  The rest of what he saying is not relevant to why I post this.  Well If we recognize a bad line as I did in this game taking CU moneyline, this is where the being able to find situations like this is what I try to do.  I also try to find a few other keys.  In my opinion finding games like this is not that difficult but some of the teams are rare.  CU first game after the poorly lined UCF game was last night and guess what? the line was off a half point.  If teased both teams cover the tease, dead on the mark. 

Now it doesnt always work out (see Vanderbilt), but Vandy is now -27 this week.  Back  to back double digit dog winners miss lined games because they were so bad just like CU was in 2022.

Games are lined poorly because of previous season bad performances and nobody expects it.  Now after these high performance games we, recognizes these teams from their successful performances  no no now it time to jump off the band wagon.

Vandy -27 is not to be trusted and CU only +3.5 at Arizona is also terrible value.  They books giveth and taketh away. 

As far as Vandy goes 58.5 in this game is way too much. They are having the most Success this season because their D is much improved and will Limit ball St scoring.

I see this something close to 28-10 so yes as far as lines I see A big opportunity for the dog and under here.

balsy play going ynder

ball state has one of the worst defenses in FBS. Should get run right through against Vandy. Agree on the spread. Would play ball state at +28 hoping Vandy packs it in at half and gets ready for Texas. 

@steponaduck

 Thank you for the comment and it’s very difficult to play under and against Vandy here. 

I just have it in my head that after Vandy last few games against ranked opponents and the success they have had the motivation alone should not be on the same level.  Both teams have to score for a close to 60 total line to go over and I can not envision that.  Candy has given up a lot of points but Ball State is not a threat.  

It’s scary to play if Ball states D is as bad as you say.  I’ll have to dig for more info.  I just see a high total and a sluggish type of game for Vandy.  Something has to be different this week.  

if I bet both Ball State and under I think that’s 2-0 or 1-1.  I need to discover the data. 

So as SODuck says,  also is something to consider.  The second half or late game in game lines are in play here as well.  

HFC and rank<13 and t:losses<2 and op:F and opp:F and o:ats streak<-1 and -8>line>-19

6-26 ATS

Against Iowa State 

IWST ranked in the top 10 after week 2 

t:team= IWST and rank<11 and week>2

have never won a game because they were dogs in all these contests because historically they don’t belong here.  

this being the first time as favorites in they will win but it should be close.  

C Florida has been favorites in 5 of their 6 games and maybe they are not good enough to be trusted to win but at this line they have a much greater chance to keep it close against IWST. 

I have Iowa and Iowa state rated pretty close and Iowa is about 30th ranked on ESPN.  That’s about where Iowa State should be 20th to 30th not #9 

Complete regression query:

HF and rank>4 and week<12 and ats streak>3 and streak>3 and line>-29 and line>=-24 and PPRSW<10

early schedules pretty easy. In most cases, now getting on to some better opponents, and with so many covers the lines are increasing. 

Im not predicting 5-0 because that doesn’t happen but the majority of these team probable don’t cover this week. 

7-27-1 ATS and the fades are the following teams:

Iowa State 

BYU

Navy

Army 

Indiana

UNLV is one of the very best at covering the last few seasons, (21-11ATS for 3 seasons of data and 14-6ATS since 2023) but the lines are catching up with them now.  In the database I use they have never been favored away against a non Mountain West team.   Oregon State isn't the team they once were recently, but I wouldn't bank on an east UNLV cover here. 

Since 2021 they have been away favorites against :

Utah St. 2 times.

New Mexico

Nevada

Hawaii 

Oregon State probably is a jump up in class from the teams I listed .  I really think its UNLV regression time because they disguise the lines to be okay when I believe that is false. 

I will be looking at the data on this game later in the week. 

UCON is 25-15 ATS their last 40 games but only 14-26 SU. Now of course they are much improved this season, but to be favored over Wake?  

Bachmeier isnt not a super QB but I am not certain Conn is lined properly.  

This is a query for favorite bettors. 

10>week>7 and rank>11 and HF and season>2012 and 4>ats streak>-4 and t:losses<2 and line>-25

41-11 ATS on the season.  Go ahead and lay it down on Mizzu -6.5 this weekend 

also of note when Auburn is an away dog of +6 or more since 2007 in a conference game.  10-17 ATS.  not so good 

any home favorite team ranked from 11 to 25 and only includes week 8 and 9 games.  the home favorite team ats streak is between -4 and not as many as +4 in a row.  Since 2012 and the line is not as many as -25 the home favorite also has 0 or 1 losses on the season.  

p:rank = None and HF and rank>19 and ats streak > 1 and -7>=line >= -20 and season > 2013 and ppp:rank = None and 64>total>46

ILL

rank<=25 and ats streak < 0 and season > 2015 and 15 > week > 2 and site = home and o:rank>9 and line>-1

I've watched UConn a couple of times...their quarterback versus Temple was/is terrible.  Their starting quarterback, Evers, is a poor man's Jadyn Daniels  who facilitates their entire offense that is almost all running attack.  I watched him and UConn run for about 400 yards, I think it was against FAU (or was it Buffalo?).  He is about 20 points a game better than Fagnano, his replacement, who can only throw (badly).  Fagnano is worse than Bachmaier,  the Wake guy, MUCH WORSE, and that is saying a lot.

Evers has been out with a concussion and I can't find anything about his availability.  UConn all the way versus Wake if Evers were to start, but UConn should have lost to Temple at home with Fagnano quarterbacking them....they are unbackable in that situation.  

week>5 and AD and day!= Saturday and t:wins<6 and PRSW>7 and line<17 and o:wins>1 and o:losses>2

46-18-1 (72%) 

Play on Troy +12

@Indigo999

 I just find Wake to be over sold here.  For good reason too. Lets see if WAKE can get a win.

AD and tA(ats margin,N=3)<-13.7 and 30>line>3 and p:F and 11 > week > 4 and division = FBS and o:rank <= 25

OK ST

CFL

HF and tA(ats margin,N=3)>6.5 and rank<=25 and p:rank=None and week<11 and ats streak>3

Char

ECar

HF and tA(ats margin,N=3)<-7.5 and 11>week>6 and oA(ats margin,N=3)<=-11 and line<-8 and season>2003

UAB

Smaller list this week and bigger wagers.  I have practiced all year to get to this point I kniow which weeks are my bread and butter and sometimes it takes more weeks to get to this point.  We all should know these teams by now, at least I feel like I do.   Also the lines maker should have a fell who they dont want to see covering anymore.  Lets see if I can Capitalize. 

If you dont feel like I am valid here so far, thats fine my record is about .500 (or close) posting here and A LOT of games.  Record is important, but money mgmt and patience are equally valueable.

had W. Ky tonight but thats done with.

I DONT HAVE TIME TO LOOK UP THE CURRENT LINES, IT DOESNT MATTER TO ME IF YOU ARE TAILING ITS YOUR MONEY AND YOUR DECISION TO SUBMIT YOUR OWN.

Here is my list:

OK ST.

UNDER NEBRASKA

NEBRASKA

UAB

STANFORD

UNDER OHIO U

TCU

C. FLORIDA

HOUSTON

WAKE F

BAYLOR

E. CAROLINA

LOUISVILLE

NC STATE

OREGON STATE

THESE ARE THE BEST GAMES AND I CANT ENVISION ANY LOSSES.  I WILL DOMINATE THIS WEEK

TAKE CARE GUYS AND BEST WIISHES TO ALL.

Liking that Nebraska under. Good luck Spottie!

@DrStrangelove

 you as well Doc thanks 

all dogs interesting   gl this week  

@RUM151

 thanks you as well