week 8

@Hulk_Hogan

 best wishes go hit em hard 

Outside the box thinking and analysis based upon past lines and current lines. There is no way to know how a game is going to play out.  Too many plays involved to know which team isnt going to get the calls or lucky breaks.  I like points because my team only has to come close and stay in the game.

OK ST. VS. BYU  

BYU: covered 8 in a row dating back to least season.  If ne looks back on their lines this season its NOT impressive what they have done.  What is impressive is they keep coving.  I have looked back on their lines and opponents.  Considering this they could cover against OK St but this line has extra points added on to BYU this week.  Thats not good> BYU has need dogs or small favorites and only 2 times have they been elevated to a double digit favorite.  Those were Wyoming and Southern Illinois.  Ok State might not be having a strong season but this line compares to BYU opponents Wyoming and Southern Illinois. and thats not close.  Ok St for the cover here.  BYU has equivalent game -10.  After 8 staight cashes the books want every off them. 

OK ST: Last 3 games against K.St. W. VA and UTAH, Ok was A favorite to W. VA. Bore that in early season games were -10.5 to Arkansas.  I could go on and on but line wise this game is off because of BYU success and Ok State recent  failures against quality teams.  Ok St has by far had the more difficult likes this season.  On the field this is pretty even in my opinion because OkSt is by far the more tested team and the way I need it +10 is by far too many. 

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

UNDER NEBRASKA.  Their D should be able to get their stops.  Their offense will have difficulty as well. I cant envision over 50 points combined here.  

NEBRASKA+

Nebraska :is the best team INDI has faced this season.  Indiana has been home favorites to( Florida Inter -25, Western Illinois -44, Charlotte -28 , Maryland -7.5) Road opponents include (UCLA -3.5, NORTHWESTERN -12.5). One poll has Nebraska ranked 27th and the other 25th.  That alone is telling this Nebraska team is capable and this line is the same as Maryland.  Again the point is we are trying to use quality legit teams as dog to come close and have a chance.  Well the way I see it not too many better this week to do it than Nebraska.  They are quality with multiple other sources. 

INDY:  5 covers in a row against by far lesser teams.  This should be a big challenge.  They are a quality team so far but have not played an elite schedule to give them -7 valid credit here. They can do it but I dont think the %'s of failures out weigh the success rates here.  They are going to need breaks and limit mistakes and opportunities,.

==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

UAB:  I cant deny who they are to this point of the season. I dont really have too much to say about them.  The only thing about them is their strong schedule.  They look terrible because their opponent have been really  legit.  That important.  The line here is way off though.  S. Florida has done nothing to Warrant  -13 here. NOTHING! Its all based upon how bad UAB looks.  Well S. Florida isnt those other teams.  S. Florida are gettable and a week off for UAB.  To me this seems like a fair contest compared to UAB's last opponent and unless they really stink and toss away the game UAB can stay with in +13. 

S. Florida: Also played some good teams but this shouldnt be -13 it should be -7 to -10. SFL wins a close one

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-

STANFORD:

+16? Stan has struggled to score against their very difficult schedule but SMU is not n elite D Stan should have more success here. Past recent Stanford opponents ( NOTRE D, Va tech. Clemson)  SMU D has been not been elite and I expect Stanford to score and get more that their lined team total of 17.5 

SMU: Has covered their last significantly but at -16 on the road is not the same for me as being a small favorite to FSU.  They are coming off an impressive win vs. Louisville but Louisville could have been in a flat spot looking ahead.  This game looks like SMU's flat spot.  A lot of points to not be motivated. 

=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

UNDER OHIO U The data spit this out and it was significant enough to list it and play it.

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

TCU: ever sine the Michigan game to make the Final they have been a complete disaster.  I just see this game as their opportunity to stay close against a UTAH team that doesn't score much and really cant lay the hammer on teams.  If it was a healthy Cam I wouldnt play it, without him its a big difference. 

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

C. FLORIDA: One of my favorite this week.  A team that no one loves or trusts.  I had CU moneyline a few week back.  I wouldnt trust them as favorites.  I would trust them staying close.  Iowa St is mostly about defense  but still UCF should score enough to cover 2 tds here.  27-17 someting like that.

HOUSTON: They lost back to back games in shutouts.  No one likes they and I think they are now valuable and I am riding them. KU is dysfunctional .

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

WAKE F:  Maybe I shouldn't trust wake and I should respect UCON more but I dont.  Wake isnt good but this is one team they should have success with.

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- 

BAYLOR,: Another team Colorado sent in the trash, no that they were great anyways.  Last 3 opponents 0 covers against CU,BYU TX. TCH.) If nothing else Baylor should have more success n offense against TXT but there are some questions here. 

E. CAROLINA: Army is ranked and fully Viral at this point.  Both of these are no no's in betting.  Call me a non-believer. 

LOUISVILLE: Miami is still living of their week1-4 success against nobody and the line is still has them elite. Louisville almost covered away at Notre Dame and some of those lines were pushes + 7. Look Louisville has not covered in their last games but this is an opportunity.

NC STATE: Another one I love. Not because they are good. They haven't covered but have been favorite in most games this season well now at +10 so they dont have to win this. CAL? why are they -10 here when their recent history has been all dogs except to UC David and San Diego St. Fine a favorite but these 2 teams are opposite with lines. NC St are favorites now dogs and Cal all dogs now Favorites. It is a disguise.

OREGON STATE. UNLV is Terrible in history as a favorite outside the MWC. This isn't Utah St. and the rest of the bad MWC dog this is Oregon St. They are a lesser Oregon St team from recent season but they still can compete here.

Interesting thing about Okie St....they have 20 returning players and a good/excellent QB with adequate running.....if they knuckled down on defense all year, they might be zero losses right now

I like Okie St in this spot but this BYU team just knows how to win playing offense or defense....9.5  pts are too many

Hey, we agree! 

I like about half of your selections so lets nail some of these....I pressed on 3 already and did a bunch of teasers but will use some of these for parlays with Texas and most likely Missouri or Rutgers or Cincy ML ....still debating. Arizona St has to play at 9am their time + be jetlagged vs a scrappy and hungry Cincy team so I am leaning on that one likely to combo with Texas and then a bunch of other plays to make 3 way parlays

I am in pretty deep this weekend since my account is still over $5K and its time to use it greater as I move toward bowl season

GL this week Spottie 

@spottie2935

Inflated line. Gundy off a bye. Looks good. bol

Nebraska, Houston, Louisville and Oregon St. are all on my playlist. Cornhuskers are a late add.

 BOL Spottie!

Let’s go get the money gents.  I am feeling it! 

@Last2thirst

@Buzzard311

@Boisestateand8

@MrFreedo

 Best wishes this week and thanks for the support 

i figured ucla would be on the list for you! i like that stanford play a lot. good luck, buddy!

@OlDirtyBaztid

 best wishes 

ECU+17

LOUIS +5.5

NEB +6.5

NC STATE+9.5

HOU +5.5

UAB+14

FAU +4.5

COLO ML

BAYL +5.5

MIS ST +20.5

S. MISS +7

C. FLA +13.5

AIR F +6.5

STAN +17

I PLAYED THE TOTALS I HAVE LISTED AS WELL

ECU+17

LOUIS +5.5

NEB +6.5

NC STATE+9.5

HOU +5.5

UAB+14

FAU +4.5

COLO ML

BAYL +5.5

MIS ST +20.5

S. MISS +7

C. FLA +13.5

AIR F +6.5

STAN +17

ORE ST +6.5

Be careful with UCF. They had five players, including two starters, quit the team and enter the portal after the week four loss to Colorado. Gus Malzahn may have lost the locker room. 

@Boisestateand8

 Very possible they did quit 

If they don’t hit this week then I trash them.  Only one time on the season CFL has been dogs and that was +3.  Iow State laying 2 TDS.  It’s about the Defense they play.  See if CFL can score. 

thank you and best wishes today. 

Greeting from currently chilly Los Angeles.

Good luck this week.  I see you like LOU, but this query likes MIAF:

AF and line > -8.2 and p:dpa > 12.2 and pp:dpa > 12.2 and 55.2 < total < 65.7

ATS:  15-4-2 (6.3, 78.9%)

Sorry for not posting sooner, but I just now ran the query.

@DogbiteWilliams

AF and line > -8.2 and pp:dpa > 12 and p:dpa > 12 and 63>total > 55 and o:ats streak = -3

I dont like MIA until they kill again  

Louisville is -3 last 3 I like that 

AF and line > -8.2 and p:dpa > 12.2 and pp:dpa > 12.2 and 55.2 < total < 65.7

15-4 but 1-3 if the dog has missed 3 in a row 

@spottie2935

 BOL bro agreed lots of your plays 

@westlake888

 Well let’s get the $$$$$$

@DogbiteWilliams

 Greetings too I don’t know what’s you’re playing but wish you the best in yours

@spottie2935

Thanks.  No NCAAFB wagers this week.