Week 8 observations and Week 9 ponderings

This week's slate:

Tuesday

Sam Houston (-7) at FIU - Hunter Watson had an undisclosed injury in the first half of the Bearkats' 31-14 loss to WKU and sat out the rest of the game. With Jase Bauer behind center, the 'Kats were held scoreless in the second half. Meanwhile, the Golden Panthers committed four turnovers and allowed 211 yards rushing (4.6 YPR) in a 30-21 upset loss at UTEP.  No play on this game, at least until Watson's status is determined.

LOUISIANA TECH (-7') vs Utep - Miners are looking for their second win in a row after an 0-6 start, and will try to end a two game losing streak to the Bulldogs, who had a 26 yard game winning field goal blocked on the last play of regulation, in a 33-30 double overtime loss at New Mexico St.

Wednesday 

Liberty (-24) at KENNESAW ST - The Flames have been playing with fire, needing fourth quarter rallies at NMSU and home vs ECU, and needing an overtime fumble recovery vs FIU two weeks ago to remain unbeaten. Coming off their bye, they should cruise in this one. The Owls, in their first season as a FBS team, are overmatched here.

JACKSONVILLE ST (-22) vs Middle Tennessee - After an 0-3 start, the Gamecocks have three blowout wins over three cupcakes, and after a bye, face another cupcake in the Blue Raiders. This is a big spread for Jack St., which has Liberty on deck.

Thursday 

OLD DOMINION (-2) vs Georgia Southern - Road team has won the last two meetings, including the Monarchs' 20-17 win in Statesboro a year ago. Both teams are off big upset wins at home. The Eagles dominated conference favorite James Madison, 28-14, outgaining the Dukes 405 yards to 255 and outrushing them 190 yards (4.8 YPR) to 69 (2.1). They had leads of 21-0 and 28-7 despite committing four turnovers, including a pick six. ODU QB Colton Joseph passed for 130 yards and rushed for 111 yards and three TDs to spark a 24-14 win over Texas St. in a statistically even game. The Monarchs rushed for 192 yards (5.2 YPR) but allowed the Bobcats to run for 186 (4.7). As for this game, the wrong team may be favored. Lean to Georgia Southern.

PITTSBURGH (-5) vs Syracuse - Both teams are off a bye. Unbeaten Panthers have won five of the last six meetings, but dropped last year's meeting 28-13. The Orange are off two impressive road wins at UNLV (44-41 in overtime) and NC State (24-17), as Kyle McCord went a combined 71 of 105 for 701 yards and five TDs. Pitt was outgained 335 yards to 277, but survived California's upset bid, 17-15, two weeks ago. The Panthers' defense registered seven sacks to bail out an offense that was held to nearly 250 yards below their season average. 

Friday

Louisville (-7) at BOSTON COLLEGE - Home team has won the last six meetings, including the Cardinals' 56-28 rout a year ago. Redbirds have a short week to regroup from a 52-45 loss to Miami Saturday, in which their defense was torched for 538 total yards, including 219 on the ground (5.5 YPR). Meanwhile, the Eagles surrendered 530 total yards, including 366 rushing yards (9.2 YPR) in a 42-21 beating at Virginia Tech last Thursday. Louisville's last four games have been decided by seven points or less.

Boise St (-3) at UNLV - This one could be a shootout. The Broncos are off a bye a week after getting a scare at Hawaii. BSU led just 13-7 going into the fourth quarter before pulling away for a 28-7 win, as Ashton Jeanty rushed for 217 yards on 31 carries. The Rebels spotted Oregon St. a 17-6 lead before going on a 27-0 run on the way to a 33-25 win in Corvallis. 

USC (-14') vs Rutgers - Both teams are looking to end three game losing streaks. The Scarlet Knights allowed 477 yards to offensively challenged UCLA in a 35-32 loss. As for the Trojans, all four of their losses have come after blowing fourth quarter leads, including last week's 29-28 loss at Maryland. Long road trip for Rutgers.

Nice previews each week, I enjoy reading them. 

I like Boise off the by week, and the over. I think the Rebels D is showing a lot of cracks from early in the season, but the offense has operated so much better than they were with Sluka under center. Looking at a 45-35 type game. I'll be there so it should be a fun game to watch.

@fsutomahawk

Thank you kind sir! Hope you're right about my Broncos. There's a LOT riding on this game, and I'm about as nervous as a person in church!  

Got edited. Kinda surprising given some of the trash I've read in this forum. Should've read "I'm about as nervous as a wh0r3 in church". 

Week 9 slate continued:

Saturday early games Part 1 (using Sunday's lines to track line movement.

Notre Dame (-13') vs Navy at MetLife Stadium - The service academies have been one of the great stories in college football this season, but I'm pumping the breaks a little bit on the Midshipmen in this game. Memphis is the only quality opponent they've faced this year, and the Tigers rang up 656 total yards and had a chance to win the game late before an 86 yard pick six with 29 seconds left sealed the 55-44 win for Navy. Since then, they've given up nearly 400 yards to UAB, and this past Saturday were outgained 358 yards to 288 in a deceiving 51-17 rout of Charlotte. The Middies scored 31 points off five 49er turnovers, including two pick sixes. Notre Dame has won 11 of the past 12 meetings, including the last seven, but they're only 6-6 ATS. The Irish keep on winning despite a multitude of injuries, and they're only giving up 12 points a game. Offensively, they'll rack up the yards, but will have to avoid turnovers vs an opportunistic Navy defense that has 14 takeaways. Passing this game for now, but I'm watching the line movement.

OHIO (-5) vs Buffalo - The Bulls won outright as double digit dogs at NIU (23-20 in OT) and home against Toledo (30-15), arguably the two best teams in the MAC, but dropped their Homecoming game to WMU this past weekend, 48-41, despite outgaining the Broncos 551 yards to 489. The Bobcats have won the last two meetings, and are off a 30-20 loss at MIAMI-OH. Points are tempting here.

VIRGINIA (-5') vs North Carolina - Tar Heels are looking for revenge after the Cavaliers won last year in Chapel Hill, 31-27, as a 24 point dog! UNC had a bye this past weekend and no team needed one more. Since the debacle against JMU, the 'Heels blew a 20 point lead in a 21-20 loss at arch rival Duke, followed by a 34-24 home loss to Pittsburgh, and then a shocking 41-34 loss to Georgia Tech, when the Yellowjackets scored on a 68 yard run with 16 freaking seconds left! Virginia was trounced at Clemson over the weekend, 48-31, in a game that wasn't that close. The Cavs trailed 38-10 going into the fourth quarter, and gained 215 of their 335 total yards in garbage time. Call me a glutton for punishment, but I like North Carolina here.

VIRGINIA TECH (-9) vs Georgia Tech - Since losing at home to Rutgers, the Hokies have been playing good ball, nearly upsetting the Hurricanes in Miami and clobbering Stanford and BC. Now they face a Yellowjackets team that may or may not have QB Haynes King (shoulder injury). Not sure I want to step in front of Va. Tech right now whether he plays or not.

MEMPHIS (-19) vs Charlotte - The 49ers, as stated earlier, aren't near as bad as they looked a week ago at Navy, losing 51-17 but outgaining the Middies by 70 yards. The Tigers got an end zone interception with three seconds left to hold off North Texas, 52-44, in a seesaw game. The Mean Green gained a whopping 653 total yards to 526 for Memphis, and both teams rushed for over 200 yards.

Tulane (-8) at NORTH TEXAS - If you like green then this is the game for you. The Green Wave vs the Mean Green. Tulane had a surprisingly tough time with Rice this past weekend, eventually breaking a 10-10 tie with a 14 point fourth quarter and a 24-10 win. I expect a better effort this week, in what could be a high scoring game.

Saturday early games Part 2

OLE MISS (-20) vs Oklahoma - Rebels are off a bye and looking to rebound from their second SEC loss in three games. Of greatest concern is a banged up offensive line that surrendered a combined ten QB sacks in those two losses. Meanwhile, the Sooners have lost three of four SEC games, allowing 18 sacks, have averaged a meager 2.8 YPR and have committed nine turnovers. Should be a low scoring affair, but Jaxson Dart gives Ole Miss an enormous edge at QB.

INDIANA (-6) vs Washington - The Hoosiers are relentless. They haven't allowed a first quarter point all season and have yet to trail in any game this year. They've also outscored opponents 94-17 in the fourth quarter and are averaging almost 49 points a game. In what was supposed to be their stiffest test of the season, they crushed Nebraska, 56-7, over the weekend despite losing QB Kurtis Rourke to a thumb injury. He sat out the second half and will be sidelined against the Huskies, who were throttled at Iowa, 40-16, two weeks ago despite outgaining the Hawkeyes by 65 yards. UDub had a field goal blocked, had two turnovers and were stopped on downs three times. Even without Rourke in this game I'm not stepping in front of this Curt Cignetti led Indiana machine. Kinda leaning Indiana here.

OHIO ST. (-24) vs Nebraska - Out of the frying pan and into the fire for the Cornhuskers, who were dominated in every facet of the game at Indiana. Now they face the Buckeyes, who had a bye after losing at Oregon, 32-31, two weeks ago. It's Homecoming for Ohio St. which has a showdown at Penn St. on deck.

Arkansas (-7) at MISSISSIPPI ST - The Razorbacks were hammered by LSU, 34-10, on Saturday. The Hogs were held to 277 total yards and just 38 on the ground (2.0 YPR). To make matters worse, leading rusher Ja'Quinden Jackson is banged up and is doubtful for this game. QB Taylen Green has been a mixed bag, with six TD passes and six interceptions for the season. The Bulldogs are still looking for their first FBS win of the season, but are on a 3-0 ATS run and showed a lot of fight at Georgia and home against A&M this past weekend, losing 34-24. 

APPALACHIAN ST. (-8) vs Georgia St - Homecoming for the Mountaineers, off a competitive 34-24 loss at Louisiana, while the Panthers are coming off a 35-20 loss at Marshall. Nothing about either team really excites me here. Still trying to figure out how Georgia St. managed to beat Vanderbilt several weeks ago.

EAST CAROLINA (-8) vs Temple - It's probably time to stop underestimating the Owls, who are on a 4-1 ATS run. They jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead and held on to beat Tulsa, 20-10, outgaining the Golden Hurricane 397 yards to 244. Meanwhile, the Pirates gave Army its' stiffest test of the season, falling 45-28. It's Homecoming for ECU.

MIAMI-OH (-11') vs Central Michigan - Cross division matchup in the MAC. Redhawks may have found a their groove after a 1-4 start, with back to back impressive wins at EMU (38-14) and home against Ohio (30-20) this past weekend. The Chippewas are off a 38-34 loss at EMU.

Line update for tonight's games:

Sam Houston is now down to -4' from -7, a clear indication that Watson isn't playing.

Louisiana Tech is down to -6' from -7'. That's more faith in UTEP than I've got.

Saturday afternoon 

Eastern Michigan (-3, down from -4') at AKRON - The Eagles rallied from a 34-16 deficit with 22 unanswered fourth quarter points to stun CMU, 38-34, despite allowing 277 yards rushing (6.2 YPR). The Zips are still looking for their first FBS win, after blowing a 17-0 lead and losing, 34-24, at WMU, despite outgaining the Broncos by 114 yards. Gun to my head I'd take EMU.

Northern Illinois (-12, up from -11) at BALL ST - Since their huge upset win at Notre Dame, the Huskies have been up and down. Can't trust them as chalk, and they've lost the last two meetings with the Cardinals. Having said that, the Cards' only FBS win this year was a nail biter at woeful Kent St. Pass.

UCONN (-6') vs Rice - Owls look to avenge a 38-31 home loss a year ago, and have shown some life the last two weeks, knocking off UTSA, 29-27, and giving Tulane all it wanted in a 24-10 loss. Rice might've won that game if not for five turnovers. The Huskies are off a 23-20 loss at Wake Forest in which they rushed for a mere 41 yards (1.6 YPR).

JAMES MADISON (-24) vs Southern Miss - Homecoming game for the Dukes, who have seen their playoff hopes crash and burn with two road losses in the last three weeks. They SHOULD be able to take care of biz here though, over a bad Golden Eagles team that's still looking for its' first FBS win.

TOLEDO (-2', down from -3) vs Bowling Green - These two have split the last two meetings, with the Rockets scoring a 32-31 win on the road a year ago. Toledo is off a 13-6 win at NIU, despite being outgained 391 yards to 285. The Bee Gees are on a 0-3-1 ATS slide, all as chalk, since taking Penn St and Texas A&M down to the wire in September. 

UCF (-1', flipped from +1') vs Byu - Long road trip for the Stormin' Mormans, off a 38-35 comeback win over Oklahoma St., thanks to Jake Retzlaff's 35 yard TD pass to Darius Lassiter (and some baaaaad tackling) with ten seconds left. Both teams rushed for over 250 yards. BYU is now 7-0, but, as I mentioned last week, it's a relatively phony 7-0. However, I don't get the line move here. The Knights are off a heartbreaking 38-35 loss at Iowa St., despite rushing for 354 yards (9.1 YPR). It was UCF's fourth loss in row and there MAY be some dysfunction in the locker room as five players quit the team after the loss to Colorado. Dame Fortune is smiling on the Cougars right now. Lean to BYU.

WESTERN MICHIGAN (-17) vs Kent St. -Homecoming game for the Broncos, off their 48-41 win at Buffalo, and a revenge showdown with NIU on deck. The Golden Flashes have, for the most part been non competitive.

Sat afternoon continued 

ALABAMA (-13', down from -14) vs Missouri - Homecoming game for the Crimson Tide, who desperately need a win after dropping two of their last three games (0-3 ATS), including a 24-17 setback at Tennessee on Saturday. Bama surrendered an uncharacteristic 217 yards rushing (5.0 YPR) in the loss. Hard to make a call on this game without knowing the status of Mizzou QB Brady Cook, who rallied the Tigers from a 17-6 deficit to beat Auburn, 21-17. This, after he suffered a high ankle sprain early in the game, making a trip to the hospital for an MRI and re-entering the game late in the third quarter.

BAYLOR (-6', up from -4) vs Oklahoma St. - Cowboys are off their best effort of the season, albeit a 38-35 last second loss at BYU. Ollie Gordon II ran for 107 of his team's 269 rushing yards (7.3 YPR). Meanwhile, the Bears ended an eight game conference losing streak with a stunning 59-35 rout of Texas Tech. Sawyer Robertson threw for 274 yards and five TDs, and Baylor rushed for 255 yards (7.7 YPR). The Bears will now attempt to end an eight game conference losing streak at home, on Homecoming.

TCU (-6', up from -6) vs Texas Tech - These two have split the last two meetings, with the Red Raiders winning a year ago in Lubbock, 35-28. The Horned Frogs are off their best defensive effort of the season, holding Utah (no Cam Rising) to 267 total yards, including 68 yards rushing (2.6 YPR). Texas Tech looks to rebound from its' bad loss to Baylor.

Utsa (-8) at TULSA - The disappointing Roadrunners are off their best effort of the season, a 38-24 win over Florida Atlantic. They outgained the Owls 485 yards to 203, and their defense recorded seven sacks. It's Homecoming for the Golden Hurricanes, who are on a 0-3 SU and ATS slide, and lost at Temple last week.

Wake Forest (-3, up from -2') at STANFORD - The Demon Deacons are off a 23-20 win at UConn, but now hit the road again to the West Coast. Not an ideal situation, but the Cardinal have suffered four straight blowout losses and don't have a capable QB.

IOWA (-14) vs Northwestern - Homecoming for the Hawkeyes who have won the last three meetings between these two. Iowa is off an upset loss at Michigan St. and was outgained by the Spartans 468 yards to 283. The Wildcats were held to 209 total yards (3.8 YPP) in a 23-3 loss to resurgent Wisconsin.  Laying double digits with the Hawkeyes is dangerous. Gonna hold my nose and say lean to Northwestern.

Sat afternoon continued 

MINNESOTA (-4, down from -5) vs Maryland - Homecoming game for the Golden Gophers, who are  off a bye following back to back wins over the California additions to the Big Ten. Two weeks ago they rallied from 10-0 down at the half with 21 second half points to top UCLA 21-17, despite being outgained 328 yards to 234. The Terrapins rallied from 14 down in the fourth quarter to stun USC, 29-28. 

OREGON (-21') vs Illinois - No letdown for the Ducks last Friday as they blew past Purdue, 35-0, a week after their huge win over Ohio St. The Illini may still be celebrating after upsetting Michigan, 21-7, their first win over the Wolverines since 2009. Long road trip for Illinois, which is overmatched here, but Oregon has already allowed two backdoor covers so far this year.

CALIFORNIA (-9', up from -9) vs Oregon St. - Golden Bears are out for revenge from blowout losses to the Beavers the last two years. Cal has lost their last four games by a grand total of nine combined points, including Saturday's 24-23 home loss to NC State, where they blew a 23-10 fourth quarter lead. Oregon St. is a far cry from the team they were the last two years, and are off back to back losses at Nevada and home against UNLV.

Texas (-19, up from -18') at VANDERBILT - The Longhorns flunked their first major test of the season in a 30-15 upset loss to Georgia. Texas gained a mere 62 yards in the first half and trailed 23-0 at halftime. They tried to make a game of it in the second half before the Bulldogs put it away with an 11 play 82 yard TD drive. Key question is what will the 'Horns mindset be as they head to Nashville? The surprising Commodores are one win away from bowl eligibility, and are 4-0 ATS as a double digit dog, with outright wins over Virginia Tech, Alabama and Kentucky, and a double overtime loss at Missouri. QB Diego Pavia is a dual threat stud, completing just over 66% of his passes for 1391 yards, 11 TDs and just one interception, and has rushed for 470 yards with three more scores. I really like Vanderbilt here.

SOUTH ALABAMA (-7') vs UL Monroe - Homecoming game for the Jaguars who are off a dominant 25-9 win over hapless Troy last Tuesday, in which they held the Trojans to just 174 total yards. The Warhawks have lost the last two meetings, including a 55-7 shellacking at home a year ago, but they're one of the nation's surprise teams this year at the top of the Sun Belt West along with Louisiana. They're 5-1 SU and 4-1 ATS, with their lone loss at Texas. With a huge upset win over JMU three weeks ago in their hip pocket, I think they're a live dog here. Lean to UL Monroe.

COLORADO ST. (-6', up from -6) vs New Mexico - Homecoming game for the Rams, who are a darkhorse in the MWC. They're off a 21-13 road win over the worst Air Force team I've ever seen, but they'll have to be wary against a a Lobos team that can put up points in bunches. They've given up a few too, as their last three games they've won by scores of 50-40, 52-37 and 50-45. Of course none of those wins were against anyone that was any good (NMSU, Air Force, and Utah St.).

Line update for Wednesday nights games:

Liberty is now up to -26, up from -24. If the Flames are interested they should roll here, but they're 0-3 ATS as double digit chalk this year, and have Jack St. on deck.

Jacksonville St. is now -20' down from -22. Again, the fav SHOULD win with their eyes closed, IF they're not looking ahead. But they are on a 3-0 SU and ATS run, all as chalk.

Saturday evening games

MIAMI FL (-21) vs Florida St. - After blowing through their non conference schedule, the Hurricanes have found the going a little tougher since ACC play began. Miami is 3-0 SU, but just 1-2 ATS as all three games were decided by seven points or less. But it's hard to see the Seminoles being competitive here. They're averaging just 15 points and 277 yards a game, including 74 rushing (2.7 YPR). 

ARKANSAS ST. (-7', up from -7) vs Troy - Homecoming game for the Red Wolves, who have lost their last three with the Trojans in blowout fashion. But this Troy edition is a far cry from years past, and it's hard to back a team that's 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS vs FBS teams.

Utah (-3') at HOUSTON - Utes are in a 0-3 SU and ATS free fall, and are breaking in a new offensive coordinator, after averaging 14.5 points in four Big 12 games. And with Cam Rising out for the year this is looking like a lost season. The Cougars were torched by Kansas, 42-14, and allowed 467 total yards after allowing just 295 per game coming in to that game.

Utah St. (-1, flipped from +2') at WYOMING - Pick your poison between these two bottom feeders. The Aggies, with a first year coach, are 0-6 SU vs FBS teams, allowing 49 points a game. The Cowboys also have a first year coach and are 1-6 SU, with their lone win coming against a horrible Air Force team. This one is a hard pass.

ARIZONA (-3', up from -2') vs West Virginia - Long road trip for West Virginia. Both teams have injury concerns. WVU QB Garrett Greene suffered an upper body injury and didn't play in the second half of the Mountaineers' 45-18 home loss to Kansas St. The Wildcats will be without LB Jacob Manu, after losing both starting safeties the week before. They're also down an offensive lineman. 

TEXAS A&M (-2', down from -3) vs Lsu - Home team has won the last seven matchups. Both teams lost their season openers and haven't lost since, and sit atop the SEC standings. The Bayou Bengals cruised past Arkansas last week, 34-10, as Garrett Nussmeier has now gone four straight games without being sacked. LSU's improved defense held the Razorbacks to 277 total yards, including just 38 on the ground (2.0 YPR). A&M had their hands full at improving Mississippi St., holding off the Bulldogs, 34-24. Defense is the name of the game for the Aggies, who rank in the top 20, allowing 17.7 points a game. Flip a coin in this one.

MICHIGAN (-4, down from -6) vs Michigan St. - Spartans are coming off their best performance of the season, a dominant 32-20 win over Iowa. Aidan Chiles passed for 256 yards and the Spartans rushed for 212 yards (5.3 YPR) in a balanced attack against a typically tough Hawkeyes defense. One dimensional Michigan returns home after back to back road losses. The Wolverines are 0-4 ATS as chalk this year, while Sparty is 4-1 as a dog and HC Jonathan Smith is 17-5 ATS as a road dog in his career (3-0 this year)! Huge revenge game for the Spartans off a 49-0 loss a year ago. Even with the line drop I'm leaning Michigan St. here.

Thursday line moves:

OLD DOMINION is now a pick em over Georgia Southern, down from -2. Still leaning toward the Eagles but there are games I like better Saturday.

PITTSBURGH -5', up from -5 vs Syracuse. No play for me, but Macwestie likes Cuse here, and who am I to argue with Mac? 

The rest of the Week 9 slate

Penn St. (-6') at WISCONSIN - Nittany Lions are off a bye, following their comeback overtime win at USC. They're averaging over 471 yards on offense, and allowing less than 263 on defense, including just 95 on the ground. They'll have to continue their solid play against a hot Badgers team that is playing its' best ball of the season. It's Homecoming in Madison. Tough call.

KENTUCKY (-2') vs Auburn - Both teams badly need a win here. The Tigers loan win against a FBS team was over New Mexico, and they're off a 21-17 loss at Mizzou after blowing a 17-6 fourth quarter lead. And you thought the Bryan Harsin years were bad. The Wildcats have dropped their last two, home against Vandy and at Florida, since their stunning upset at Ole Miss. Don't really care for either side here.

Smu (-12, up from -11) at DUKE - The Mustangs are on a 4-0 SU and ATS run and playing their best ball of the season, but this is their third straight road trip. And it's their second loooong road trip in a row, after a dominant 40-10 rout at reeling Stanford last Saturday. The Blue Devils won their first ever game over Florida St. last Friday, 23-16, in 23 tries. Over the last two plus years Duke is 15-2 SU, and 11-3 ATS in Durham, including 4-1 as a dog. Between that, plus an extra day of rest and a second straight game at home, and SMU perhaps being a mite road weary, I really like Duke in this spot.

KANSAS ST (-10) vs Kansas - Homecoming game for the Wildcats, who are off perhaps their best game of the season, a 45-18 road beatdown of West Virginia. The Jayhawks ended their 0-5 SU and ATS slide with a 42-14 thumping of Houston, and are looking to end a 15 game losing streak against their bitter rival. Oughta be fun.

FRESNO ST (-5, down from -6) vs San Jose St - Bulldogs look to avenge a 42-18 road loss a year ago, but this line looks a little steep to me. Unless there's an injury I don't know about it should be about a pickem kinda game. The loser can say goodbye to any conference title hopes.

COLORADO (-5, up from -4) vs Cincinnati - Since blowing a 27-6 lead and losing to Pittsburgh in Week Two, the Bearcats have been playing good football, as their 4-1 SU, 4-0-1 ATS record would attest. Same for the Buffaloes, who are 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS since losing at Nebraska. Both teams sit a game back of Iowa St. and BYU in the Big 12 standings so this one is huge

Washington St. (-14) at SAN DIEGO ST. - Homecoming for the Aztecs, who are off back to back 27-24 wins over Hawaii and at Wyoming, but this is a big step up in class. The Cougars lone loss is at Boise St. and they still have an outside shot at the playoffs if they win out.

Nevada (pk, down from -2') at Hawaii - Wolfpack looks to avenge a 27-14 home loss a year ago. This one could go either way. 

Summarizing my potential playlist:

North Carolina +3' (down from +5') at VIRGINIA - Still leaning Tar Heels despite the line drop. 

NORTH TEXAS +8 vs Tulane - Homecoming for the Mean Green. I think they can hang here and may win outright.

Byu +2' (line flipped from -1') at UCF - after an initial lean on the Cougars I'm dropping this game. Dame Fortune has smiled on BYU for much of the season, but the luck b1tch could be hiding right around the corner.

VANDERBILT+18 (down from 18') vs Texas - The Commodores are a confident bunch. They're 4-0 ATS as a double digit dog with three outright wins. They're efficient and don't beat themselves. The Longhorns were humbled last week vs. Georgia and will have their hands full here.

UL Monroe +7 (down from +7') at SOUTH ALABAMA - Warhawks are getting better by the week since their blowout loss at Texas. Homecoming home favs are usually a good fade.

MIAMI FL -21 vs Florida St. - The Hurricanes can score against anybody, but they've given up a bunch of points too since ACC play began. However, the Seminoles are only averaging 15 points a game offensively. To cover this spread they'd have to hold the 'Canes to less than 37, and nobody has done that this year.

Michigan St. +4 at MICHIGAN - Spartans are 4-1 ATS as a dog, and HC Jonathan Smith is 17-5 ATS in his career as a road dog. Wolverines are 1-6 ATS this year, 0-4 as chalk. I like Sparty to avenge a couple of blowout losses the past two years.

DUKE +11' (down from -12) vs Smu - Mustangs could be a mite road weary in their third straight game away from home. Blue Devils are 15-2 SU at home the last two plus years, including 4-1 as a dog.

@Boisestateand8

 Copy paste lol 

It doesn't seem to matter who they're playing, FSU just can't seem to score more than a couple TD's a game. Will Miami score 35? I think they probably will. So I would lean Miami -21. If I was playing a big favorite, Miami would probably be the team I would play this week...Good luck!

GL  on your plays mah man @Boisestateand8

??

@DrStrangelove

@Macwestie1

@Boisestateand8

 Appreciate all the work you put in on the thread! Best of luck 

@beats723

  BOL to you too brother!