BA, Good luck this week. Saw the retirement guy Friday. After Dec. 31 you are paying for my future life of leisure. All my future plays will be subsidized by you.
Thank you sir. I appreciate it.
Stay Hard, Doc
0
BA, Good luck this week. Saw the retirement guy Friday. After Dec. 31 you are paying for my future life of leisure. All my future plays will be subsidized by you.
We got back on track this week with the good old "can't lose" ML Par. Thanks for that!
As for this weeks ML Par, I like your suggestions already but I am wondering what you think about adding in Georgia and Clemson?
I really can't see Florida competing with Georgia at all, and I can't see Clemson dropping another one after last week.
Any thoughts are much appreciated!
HELL NO..................
you're getting away from the basic premise of the CLMLP......fine in a normal ML parlay sure
* main thing is to avoid the dangerous dog....we're looking for the dog with no teeth
I'm even throwing out SMU.....Tulsa off that bad loss is potentially a threat....beat Cougs by 25 off Tulane loss
10/28/2017 2:30 PM College Football 134 Marshall* -800 vs Florida International 10/28/2017 3:30 PM College Football 175 Louisiana Tech* -500 vs Rice 10/28/2017 3:30 PM College Football 182 Washington U* -900 vs UCLA 10/28/2017 6:30 PM College Football 190 North Texas* -440 vs Old Dominion.....$100 > 84.10
you CAN switch SMU for La Tech for a better return $98 or so).......should work out....Ponies should take care of biz................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
Quote Originally Posted by JS12:
BA, you're the man!
We got back on track this week with the good old "can't lose" ML Par. Thanks for that!
As for this weeks ML Par, I like your suggestions already but I am wondering what you think about adding in Georgia and Clemson?
I really can't see Florida competing with Georgia at all, and I can't see Clemson dropping another one after last week.
Any thoughts are much appreciated!
HELL NO..................
you're getting away from the basic premise of the CLMLP......fine in a normal ML parlay sure
* main thing is to avoid the dangerous dog....we're looking for the dog with no teeth
I'm even throwing out SMU.....Tulsa off that bad loss is potentially a threat....beat Cougs by 25 off Tulane loss
10/28/2017 2:30 PM College Football 134 Marshall* -800 vs Florida International 10/28/2017 3:30 PM College Football 175 Louisiana Tech* -500 vs Rice 10/28/2017 3:30 PM College Football 182 Washington U* -900 vs UCLA 10/28/2017 6:30 PM College Football 190 North Texas* -440 vs Old Dominion.....$100 > 84.10
you CAN switch SMU for La Tech for a better return $98 or so).......should work out....Ponies should take care of biz................
BA, Good luck this week. Saw the retirement guy Friday. After Dec. 31 you are paying for my future life of leisure. All my future plays will be subsidized by you.
Thank you sir. I appreciate it.
Stay Hard, Doc
good for you man...............
* you're doing a WHOLE lot better than me I'll tell you that.....day of my White Trash funeral I'll likely have to put a few hours in........
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:
BA, Good luck this week. Saw the retirement guy Friday. After Dec. 31 you are paying for my future life of leisure. All my future plays will be subsidized by you.
Thank you sir. I appreciate it.
Stay Hard, Doc
good for you man...............
* you're doing a WHOLE lot better than me I'll tell you that.....day of my White Trash funeral I'll likely have to put a few hours in........
you're getting away from the basic premise of the CLMLP......fine in a normal ML parlay sure
* main thing is to avoid the dangerous dog....we're looking for the dog with no teeth
I'm even throwing out SMU.....Tulsa off that bad loss is potentially a threat....beat Cougs by 25 off Tulane loss
10/28/2017 2:30 PM College Football 134 Marshall* -800 vs Florida International 10/28/2017 3:30 PM College Football 175 Louisiana Tech* -500 vs Rice 10/28/2017 3:30 PM College Football 182 Washington U* -900 vs UCLA 10/28/2017 6:30 PM College Football 190 North Texas* -440 vs Old Dominion.....$100 > 84.10
you CAN switch SMU for La Tech for a better return $98 or so).......should work out....Ponies should take care of biz................
forgot.....the only addition......I will ALLOW ha
$ is Fresno St at -1400.....which brings it to $97.24......I HATE 5 teams but UNLV ain't beating Fresno
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
HELL NO..................
you're getting away from the basic premise of the CLMLP......fine in a normal ML parlay sure
* main thing is to avoid the dangerous dog....we're looking for the dog with no teeth
I'm even throwing out SMU.....Tulsa off that bad loss is potentially a threat....beat Cougs by 25 off Tulane loss
10/28/2017 2:30 PM College Football 134 Marshall* -800 vs Florida International 10/28/2017 3:30 PM College Football 175 Louisiana Tech* -500 vs Rice 10/28/2017 3:30 PM College Football 182 Washington U* -900 vs UCLA 10/28/2017 6:30 PM College Football 190 North Texas* -440 vs Old Dominion.....$100 > 84.10
you CAN switch SMU for La Tech for a better return $98 or so).......should work out....Ponies should take care of biz................
forgot.....the only addition......I will ALLOW ha
$ is Fresno St at -1400.....which brings it to $97.24......I HATE 5 teams but UNLV ain't beating Fresno
tell us who you like man.....you laying the 24 to Rutgers?
* Minny compete / cover at Iowa?
* Sparty makes me nervous.....but bad azz historically on the B10 road......IF we ignore (HA) the weird 2016 season......they're 15-1 SU / 12-4 ATS........plus the ROAD team has won 9/10 in this series wtf .......AND NW won last year .....with Penn St / Ohio St on deck......Sparty has gotta have this one
* instincts on Buckeyes / N Lions ?......................
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:
Penn St at +6, damn looked like an 8.
what the hell are you doing UNI?.............
tell us who you like man.....you laying the 24 to Rutgers?
* Minny compete / cover at Iowa?
* Sparty makes me nervous.....but bad azz historically on the B10 road......IF we ignore (HA) the weird 2016 season......they're 15-1 SU / 12-4 ATS........plus the ROAD team has won 9/10 in this series wtf .......AND NW won last year .....with Penn St / Ohio St on deck......Sparty has gotta have this one
* instincts on Buckeyes / N Lions ?......................
BA....you still like North Texas -11.5??.....or did we miss the boat?........
I don't see anything wrong with a smaller play up to 12' > 13' maybe
* Old D is making me a bit nervous here...for some reason
Maybe WKU is THAT bad.....but those losses vs Marshall.....FAU and the Hokies....don't seem as ugly as before......the one game I don't like at all is UMASS (ODU won 17-7)......so they can compete with Ohio...Tennessee...Hawaii and Temple....but not Old D?
BOL this week man.............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:
BA....you still like North Texas -11.5??.....or did we miss the boat?........
I don't see anything wrong with a smaller play up to 12' > 13' maybe
* Old D is making me a bit nervous here...for some reason
Maybe WKU is THAT bad.....but those losses vs Marshall.....FAU and the Hokies....don't seem as ugly as before......the one game I don't like at all is UMASS (ODU won 17-7)......so they can compete with Ohio...Tennessee...Hawaii and Temple....but not Old D?
Wazzu matches up well with Zona on BOTH sides of the ball....IMO line should be 6ish ....just a small (1/2 unit) play on GT
* don't like going against Dabo off loss AND bye.....but GT is gonna be tough to simply beat.....let alone EXTEND the margin here....seems like they've COVERED 10 straight games as well....Clemson QB issues helpful too.............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
0
adding...
one unit.....Wazzu -2'
smaller......Ga Tech +14'
Wazzu matches up well with Zona on BOTH sides of the ball....IMO line should be 6ish ....just a small (1/2 unit) play on GT
* don't like going against Dabo off loss AND bye.....but GT is gonna be tough to simply beat.....let alone EXTEND the margin here....seems like they've COVERED 10 straight games as well....Clemson QB issues helpful too.............
That Toledo -21 opening line was unbelievably low, but I would still take the Rockets -26. Ball State belongs on the short list of worst teams in the country, next to BYU, K-State, and SJSU...
Since losing their starting QB, Ball St has been terrible on both sides of the ball. The last 3 weeks they have scored a total of 15 points.
56-9 @ Central Michigan
31-3 vs Akron
55-3 @ WMU
Their defense cant stop the pass, their just as bad against the run, and their QB is the worst ive seen this year. Their QB is averaging 3.8 YPA with 0 TD and 6 Int's...
Toledo and Ball St have both played CMU and Akron in back to back weeks, and while Ball ST had a point differential of -65 w a combined score of 87-12. Toledo won both contests with a combined score of 78-31, which gives them a +57 MOV...
Toledo's wins were even more impressive than the final score indicated, 10 of Central Michigan's 13 total drives were 3 and outs, and the Chippewa offense only managed 3 pts before scoring a TD with 1 minute left in legit garbage time.
The next week Toledo dominated Akron, leading 38-7 before putting in the second and 3rd string QB's... Both drives ended in scores, with a TD and FG... Aside from the EMU game, Toledo has been able to put up points even once the game was out of reach, and they were running the ball to eat the clock...
0
That Toledo -21 opening line was unbelievably low, but I would still take the Rockets -26. Ball State belongs on the short list of worst teams in the country, next to BYU, K-State, and SJSU...
Since losing their starting QB, Ball St has been terrible on both sides of the ball. The last 3 weeks they have scored a total of 15 points.
56-9 @ Central Michigan
31-3 vs Akron
55-3 @ WMU
Their defense cant stop the pass, their just as bad against the run, and their QB is the worst ive seen this year. Their QB is averaging 3.8 YPA with 0 TD and 6 Int's...
Toledo and Ball St have both played CMU and Akron in back to back weeks, and while Ball ST had a point differential of -65 w a combined score of 87-12. Toledo won both contests with a combined score of 78-31, which gives them a +57 MOV...
Toledo's wins were even more impressive than the final score indicated, 10 of Central Michigan's 13 total drives were 3 and outs, and the Chippewa offense only managed 3 pts before scoring a TD with 1 minute left in legit garbage time.
The next week Toledo dominated Akron, leading 38-7 before putting in the second and 3rd string QB's... Both drives ended in scores, with a TD and FG... Aside from the EMU game, Toledo has been able to put up points even once the game was out of reach, and they were running the ball to eat the clock...
Toledo won 37-19 last year, which was played in a thick fog. Ball St QB, Riley Neal threw for 260 yards 2 TD's 0 Ints and 14 carries for 85 yards. Their #1 WR Damon Hazelton had 12 rec 103 yds 1 TD transferred to Virginia Tech. That's quite a bit of production to replace.
The scheduling of this game is very similar to last year, this year they will play at the end of October, last year they played the first week of November. Last year Toledo had Western Michigan the next week, making it a bit of a look ahead game. This year Toledo has Northern Illinois on deck, which will be a huge game for the MAC championship.
Trends:
The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 (Favors Toledo)
Toledo is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games. (Toledo)
Toledo is 9-2 ATS against teams with losing records. (Toledo)
Toledo is 12-4-1 ATS after accumulating 200 yards rushing
Toledo 36-17-1 ATS following a game where they won by +20
Toledo is 1-4 ATS in last 5 meetings (Ball St)
Ball State:
Ball St is 16-35 ATS in their last 51 home games (Toledo)
Ball St is 2-6 ATS after allowing 200 yards rushing (Toledo)
Ball St is 5-16 ATS at home vs a team w winning record (Toledo)
Ball St 0-4 ATS after accumulating less than 100 rush yards
Ball St is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference games
Usually I would have a tough time backing a 26 pt road favorite, but Ball St is a mess right now. I obviously dont like that I missed the opening line of 21, but Toledo is one of the best offenses in the country and should have no problem scoring +40.... Toledo will have to beat themselves for them not to cover, Ball ST will need to get a few turnovers and non offensive scores.
0
Toledo won 37-19 last year, which was played in a thick fog. Ball St QB, Riley Neal threw for 260 yards 2 TD's 0 Ints and 14 carries for 85 yards. Their #1 WR Damon Hazelton had 12 rec 103 yds 1 TD transferred to Virginia Tech. That's quite a bit of production to replace.
The scheduling of this game is very similar to last year, this year they will play at the end of October, last year they played the first week of November. Last year Toledo had Western Michigan the next week, making it a bit of a look ahead game. This year Toledo has Northern Illinois on deck, which will be a huge game for the MAC championship.
Trends:
The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 (Favors Toledo)
Toledo is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games. (Toledo)
Toledo is 9-2 ATS against teams with losing records. (Toledo)
Toledo is 12-4-1 ATS after accumulating 200 yards rushing
Toledo 36-17-1 ATS following a game where they won by +20
Toledo is 1-4 ATS in last 5 meetings (Ball St)
Ball State:
Ball St is 16-35 ATS in their last 51 home games (Toledo)
Ball St is 2-6 ATS after allowing 200 yards rushing (Toledo)
Ball St is 5-16 ATS at home vs a team w winning record (Toledo)
Ball St 0-4 ATS after accumulating less than 100 rush yards
Ball St is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference games
Usually I would have a tough time backing a 26 pt road favorite, but Ball St is a mess right now. I obviously dont like that I missed the opening line of 21, but Toledo is one of the best offenses in the country and should have no problem scoring +40.... Toledo will have to beat themselves for them not to cover, Ball ST will need to get a few turnovers and non offensive scores.
When looking at all the key metrics for setting a line, it makes sense that Ball St is +26, but those stats are very misleading. Ball State was a different team the first 3 weeks when they had a legitimate QB. Instead of looking at the entire season, you get a much better picture of who Ball St really is by looking at their last 3 games with their backup QB. That changes their Points per game from 18 to 5.
Toledo played with Miami for 3 quarters, but they gave up 254 rushing yards to Mark Walton and 52 points. That completely skews their opp yards per play, opp yards per rush, opp yards per point, points per game. Miami's defense also held Toledo to 2.4 ypc, which disguises how efficient Toledo's rush offense really is.
0
When looking at all the key metrics for setting a line, it makes sense that Ball St is +26, but those stats are very misleading. Ball State was a different team the first 3 weeks when they had a legitimate QB. Instead of looking at the entire season, you get a much better picture of who Ball St really is by looking at their last 3 games with their backup QB. That changes their Points per game from 18 to 5.
Toledo played with Miami for 3 quarters, but they gave up 254 rushing yards to Mark Walton and 52 points. That completely skews their opp yards per play, opp yards per rush, opp yards per point, points per game. Miami's defense also held Toledo to 2.4 ypc, which disguises how efficient Toledo's rush offense really is.
Sorry for blowing up your thread, I probably could have just started it's own thread; I just figured i'd give my 2 cents, and figured you probably got the early line.
BOL
0
Sorry for blowing up your thread, I probably could have just started it's own thread; I just figured i'd give my 2 cents, and figured you probably got the early line.
you're getting away from the basic premise of the CLMLP......fine in a normal ML parlay sure
* main thing is to avoid the dangerous dog....we're looking for the dog with no teeth
I'm even throwing out SMU.....Tulsa off that bad loss is potentially a threat....beat Cougs by 25 off Tulane loss
10/28/2017 2:30 PM College Football 134 Marshall* -800 vs Florida International 10/28/2017 3:30 PM College Football 175 Louisiana Tech* -500 vs Rice 10/28/2017 3:30 PM College Football 182 Washington U* -900 vs UCLA 10/28/2017 6:30 PM College Football 190 North Texas* -440 vs Old Dominion.....$100 > 84.10
you CAN switch SMU for La Tech for a better return $98 or so).......should work out....Ponies should take care of biz................
I hear you loud and clear BA!
Thanks a lot!
0
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
HELL NO..................
you're getting away from the basic premise of the CLMLP......fine in a normal ML parlay sure
* main thing is to avoid the dangerous dog....we're looking for the dog with no teeth
I'm even throwing out SMU.....Tulsa off that bad loss is potentially a threat....beat Cougs by 25 off Tulane loss
10/28/2017 2:30 PM College Football 134 Marshall* -800 vs Florida International 10/28/2017 3:30 PM College Football 175 Louisiana Tech* -500 vs Rice 10/28/2017 3:30 PM College Football 182 Washington U* -900 vs UCLA 10/28/2017 6:30 PM College Football 190 North Texas* -440 vs Old Dominion.....$100 > 84.10
you CAN switch SMU for La Tech for a better return $98 or so).......should work out....Ponies should take care of biz................
Wazzu matches up well with Zona on BOTH sides of the ball....IMO line should be 6ish ....just a small (1/2 unit) play on GT
* don't like going against Dabo off loss AND bye.....but GT is gonna be tough to simply beat.....let alone EXTEND the margin here....seems like they've COVERED 10 straight games as well....Clemson QB issues helpful too.............
I like Wazzu too here. I’m wondering why the line is so small. AZ had to hang on for dear life against Cal and did not cover.
0
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
adding...
one unit.....Wazzu -2'
smaller......Ga Tech +14'
Wazzu matches up well with Zona on BOTH sides of the ball....IMO line should be 6ish ....just a small (1/2 unit) play on GT
* don't like going against Dabo off loss AND bye.....but GT is gonna be tough to simply beat.....let alone EXTEND the margin here....seems like they've COVERED 10 straight games as well....Clemson QB issues helpful too.............
I like Wazzu too here. I’m wondering why the line is so small. AZ had to hang on for dear life against Cal and did not cover.
TTech + 21.....RR play well vs OU.....should score a lotta pts
Just a feeling that OU is going to tear TTU a new one this week under the lights. TTU's D starting to fall apart like a two dollar lawn chair like they usually do this time of year. Not really a good spot for the Red Raiders with the Sooners coming home after two close calls on the road. The defense should have a little more spring in their steps after their draining win over Texas carried over to KSU.
0
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
watching line movement / considering
TTech + 21.....RR play well vs OU.....should score a lotta pts
Just a feeling that OU is going to tear TTU a new one this week under the lights. TTU's D starting to fall apart like a two dollar lawn chair like they usually do this time of year. Not really a good spot for the Red Raiders with the Sooners coming home after two close calls on the road. The defense should have a little more spring in their steps after their draining win over Texas carried over to KSU.
Bookie that QB is done, when he took off his helmet he was bleeding. UNLV O-line is toast and dropping life flies and well as their D-line lol like they ever had one. The program should've been dismantled years ago Sanchez is a joke a coach from Bishop Gorman funded by certain parents of students it's this bad!
0
Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
naw......UNLV QB hurt......possible concussion
in fact....buncha QB's hurt.....may / may not play......might play at < 100%
Bookie that QB is done, when he took off his helmet he was bleeding. UNLV O-line is toast and dropping life flies and well as their D-line lol like they ever had one. The program should've been dismantled years ago Sanchez is a joke a coach from Bishop Gorman funded by certain parents of students it's this bad!
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