Week 9 observations and Week 10 Ponderings

Going back to my conference breakdown format. 

C-USA

Tuesday

FIU (-7') vs New Mexico St. - Revenge game for the Golden Panthers who need to win out to become bowl eligible. They'll probably get this one. Aggies are 0-3 on the road, losing by a combined 133-24. This one's for degens only.

SAM HOUSTON (-10') vs Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs seek revenge for last year's upset loss at home. The line suggests that QB Hunter Watson MAY be back for the Bearkats, after he suffered an undisclosed injury in the first half of the WKU game two weeks ago. He's the main cog in Sam Houston's offense.

Wednesday 

LIBERTY (-1) vs Jacksonville St. - Can the Flames bounce back from last week's shocking loss at Kennesaw? They've been playing with their food all season and it finally caught up to 'em. The Gamecocks have been feasting on cupcakes during their 4-0 SU and ATS run. Liberty is no cupcake, and Jack St. will have its' hands full here.

WESTERN KENTUCKY (-24) vs Kennesaw St. - Hilltoppers are off a bye, and I'm sure the Owls' upset win over Liberty last week got their attention. WKU should roll here.

Saturday 

UTEP (-3) vs Middle Tennessee St. - Miners have nothing to play for except pride. Hard to trust them as chalk. Blue Raiders' bowl hopes are on life support. Move along folks. Nothing to see here.

Sun Belt

Tuesday 

TEXAS ST (-3' up from. -3) vs Louisiana - Huge showdown in the wide open Sun Belt West! Ragin' Cajuns have never lost to this team in 11 meetings (10-1 ATS), and last year rallied from 30-21 down to win 34-30, despite being outgained by 134 total yards. History makes it difficult to trust the favored Bobcats.

Friday 

UCONN (-7', up from -7) vs Georgia St. - Sixth straight home game for the Huskies, who need one more win to be bowl eligible, and are looking to avenge last year's 34-14 loss in Atlanta. Panthers are on a four game losing streak (0-3-1 ATS), and looking to stop the bleeding in their third straight road game.

Saturday 

Old Dominion (-2') at APPALACHIAN ST - Monarchs have won four of their last five, all as a dog, but now find themselves favored for only the second time this year. They'll have to be wary of this Mountaineers team (who they upset a year ago, 28-21), with back to back revenge showdowns with JMU and Marshall on deck and the Sun Belt East title on the line.

MARSHALL (-11) vs UL Monroe - I thought the Warhawks could hang with South Alabama, and boy did I whiff on THAT bet. Up 17-12 at the break, ULM was outscored 34-0 in the second half of a 46-17 beatdown, in which they gave up 355 yards rushing (7.4 YPR)! One thing the Thundering Herd does well is run the pigskin, and they're 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS at home this year, and are off a bye.

Coastal Carolina (-4') at TROY - Homecoming for the Trojans, who are 1-7 SU. Question is, do they have any fight left, or are they throwing in the towel on the season? Chanticleers are off a bye and still have something to play for.

SOUTH ALABAMA (-6) vs Georgia Southern - With the Jaguars off a blowout win over ULM and the Eagles off a blowout loss at ODU, there's some line value here. This is a huge game with both teams fighting to win their respective divisions in the Sun Belt.

I will not, cannot back LIBERTY ever again after last Wednesday's shit show.

However, I plan on getting my money back with Western Kentucky, with KEEN's win this is a perfect opportunity to fade them now, I see an easy 30+ point win for WKU

AAC

Thursday 

Tulane (-16) at CHARLOTTE - The Green Wave beat me on Saturday when they jumped out to a 21-3 lead and held on for a 45-37 win at North Texas, covering the spread by a stinking half point! Now they go on the road again, on a short week, for a first ever matchup with a 49er team that's better than their record would indicate, AND gave Memphis all it could handle in a near road upset. Points are tempting here.

Friday 

Usf (-2') at FLORIDA ATLANTIC - Bulls are looking to avenge a 56-14 beatdown to the Owls a year ago on their home field, but there's nothing about this team that makes me want to back them as road chalk.

Saturday 

ARMY (-23, down from -24') vs Air Force - Both teams are off a bye, and the Flyboys are looking to avenge last season's 23-3 loss. However there's no evidence whatsoever that shows they're good enough to hang with the Black Knights here. In six games vs. FBS teams they're 0-6 SU and ATS and averaging 14 points a game. Army, meanwhile is 7-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS and has averaged 45 points in their last four games. Big lean to Army here, and I really don't understand why this line has gone down!

Memphis (-7, down from -7') at UTSA - I haven't really been impressed with the Tigers ever since they lost to Navy. They're winning but they seem to be going through the motions, including last week's narrow escape against Charlotte. But I want nothing to do with the Roadrunners, who blew a 35-7 halftime lead at Tulsa and suffered a demoralizing 46-45 upset loss.

UAB (-3', up from -3) vs Tulsa - Homecoming for the Blazers, who are 0-6 SU vs FBS teams. The Golden Hurricane had been largely noncompetitive until Saturday's second half explosion. 

Navy (-11, down from -12') at RICE - The Midshipmen are on the road again after their 51-14 beatdown by Notre Dame at MetLife Stadium. They still have a lot to play for here with the AAC title up for grabs, and possibly a playoff berth if they win out. But I just don't trust that defense enough to lay double digits in this spot.

I'm in agreement with you on both games. I see Liberty is now favored by 2'. It's a must win for them after last week's meltdown, but I have no interest in playing it. WKU has covered five games in a row and should make it six on Wednesday night. I may wind up playing that one myself. BOL! 

bump for Boise, good thread bro 

@WahooS

 Thank you kind sir! 

@Boisestateand8

  Good info 

MWC

Friday

BOISE ST. (-23') vs San Diego St. - Aztecs are on a 4-0 ATS run, with all four games decided by three points or less, including Saturday's 29-26 loss to Washington St. The Broncos are off a huge 29-24 win at UNLV and will have to guard against a letdown here. Ashton Jeanty should return to his dominant ways, and Boise SHOULD win this one by as much as they want to.

Saturday 

NEW MEXICO (7', up from -7) vs Wyoming - Lobos have lost the last two meetings, and should get a measure of revenge vs a Cowboys team that has nothing left to play for....except pride. 

FRESNO ST. (-13', up from -13) vs Hawaii - Both teams are off blowout wins at home, but the mainland has not been kind to the Rainbow Warriors this year. They're 0-3 SU and ATS, and now face a Bulldogs team that is still in the running for a conference title. 

Colorado St. (-1', up from -1) at NEVADA - Rams are tied with Boise at the top of the MWC standings, following a 17-6 win over New Mexico, despite the Lobos outgaining them 460 total yards to 334. The Wolfpack is improved under Jeff Choate, but need to win their last four to become bowl eligible.

@bonfire69

The rest of the Week 10 slate is on Saturday. Here we gooooooo!

MAC

Buffalo (-1) at AKRON - Bulls have won the last six meetings between these two. Buffie was shellacked at Ohio, 47-16, on Saturday and is on their second straight road trip. The Zips zipped past EMU, 25-21, despite being outgained by 99 yards. This line seems short to me, but this conference is a mishmash of mediocrity and I'm staying away.

Toledo (-8) at EASTERN MICHIGAN - The Rockets have won six of the last eight meetings, but are just 1-3 ATS in Ypsilanti, and have crashed and burned as chalk this year (1-4 SU and ATS). The Emus have a shot here, but again, I ain't touching it.

ACC

MIAMI FL (-20', up from -20) vs Duke - I had both of these teams last week, including Duke as my top play of the month over SMU. The Blue Devils should've won the game outright, but didn't score a single point off six Mustang turnovers! They missed two field goals, were stopped on downs twice and failed on a two point conversion in OT that would've won it. Duke is 5-1-1 ATS, 3-0-1 vs the ACC (but 0-4 in the stats). I was glad I bet the Hurricanes early at -21 since the closing line of -22' would've lost to a backdoor cover. The 'Canes are 0-3 ATS laying double digits vs ACC teams, but they're 4-0 SU with three of those wins by a combined ten points. Miami wins this, but I like Duke to cover.

NC STATE (-9') vs Stanford - Wolfpack is off a bye following their 24-23 upset win at Cal for their only ATS win of the season. They were outplayed for much of the game in that one, rallying from 23-10 down with two fourth quarter TDs. The Cardinal have not been competitive lately, last week's 27-24 home loss to Wake being the lone exception. Stan makes its' third trip back east. Not crazy about either of these two.

Virginia Tech (-4) at SYRACUSE - Be careful here if you're planning on backing Va. Tech. In their last outing, the Hokies beat Georgia Tech, 21-6, despite being outgained 356 total yards to 223, including just 89 on the ground (2.8 YPR). Meanwhile, despite a 327 to 217 yardage advantage, the Orange were clobbered at Pitt last Thursday, 41-13, as three of Kyle McCord's five interceptions were pick sixes in the first half, contributing to a 31-0 deficit at the break. With a two day rest advantage, and the Orange looking to avenge a 38-10 beatdown a year ago, I'm leaning Syracuse to turn the tables in their Homecoming game.

North Carolina (-2', up from -2) at FLORIDA ST. - I'm kicking myself for not pulling the trigger last week on the Tar Heels, who played their best game of the season, a 41-14 rout at Virginia, ending a four game skid. Now they go on the road again to face the punchless Seminoles, who have nothing to play for. Be interesting to see if there's any fight left in this team.

CLEMSON (-10', down from -11) vs Louisville - Tigers are off a bye, and since their opening day loss to Georgia, they've been taking no prisoners. They're 6-0 SU since that day, including 5-0 vs ACC foes. They've outgained their conference opponents by an average of 183 yards a game! The Cardinals are on a 0-5 ATS skid, but all five games have been decided by seven points or less. Pick your poison here.

SMU (-7) vs Pittsburgh - Homecoming for the road weary Mustangs, who survived those six turnovers last week in their 28-27 overtime win at Duke. SMU is 4-0 SU in conference play, outgaining their opponents by 144 yards a game. The Panthers are 3-0 in ACC play, after their blowout win over 'Cuse, but have lost the stats by over 21 points a game. Tough call here.

Line update:

TEXAS ST. is now up to -4' over a team that they've never beaten. Seems like the wrong team may be favored here. Hmmmm

Now 4.5

These types of lines that don't make sense have done bad all season. I know because I bet all of them.

So fade away, I'm on Texas St -4.5. 

@CardiacKid59

 BOL!  I didn't play it.

SEC

Ole Miss (-7, up from 6') at ARKANSAS - Home team has won the last four meetings but the Razorbacks have covered all four. The Hogs are 4-1 as a dog this year, with the one loss to LSU as QB Taylen Green played with a leg injury. Green was outstanding in a 58-25 rout of Mississippi St., as he went 23 of 29 for 314 yards and five TDs, while rushing for 79 yards and another score on eight carries. He's always been a dangerous runner, but he's improving as a passer as well, completing over 60% of his throws for the season.The Rebels blew through their nonconference schedule by a combined score of 220-22, but have found the going a lot tougher since SEC play began. They're just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, all as a favorite, and while the defense continues to be stout, the offense has been grinding, only averaging less than 3.4 YPR. The history between these two suggests Arkansas is the play here.

AUBURN (-7, up from 6') vs Vanderbilt - Commodores have been money in the bank as double digit dogs, going 5-0 ATS. But this line seems like a bit of an overreaction, especially with the Tigers coming off their best effort of the season, a dominant 24-10 win at Kentucky. Auburn may also be looking for a little payback over QB Diego Pavia, who led New Mexico St. to a 31-10 blowout win a year ago as a 25 point dog!

Georgia (-16) vs Florida (at Jacksonville) - Bulldogs have won six of the last seven matchups, with five of those in blowout fashion, but they've failed to cover their last four as chalk this season. The Gators are on a 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS run, but lost QB Graham Mertz for the season in an overtime loss at Tennessee. I think I'll just watch this and, in keeping with the annual tradition of this game, have a cocktail...or two.

MISSISSIPPI ST (-18, up from 17') vs UMass - Both of these teams will be home for the holidays and are playing out the string. But this is the Bulldogs best chance for their first FBS win of the season and they may be motivated to bully an inferior opponent.

Texas A&M (-2', down from 3') at SOUTH CAROLINA - Homecoming game for the Gamecocks who are off a bye, a week after a deceiving 35-9 blowout win at Oklahoma. The 'Cocks scored 24 points off four turnovers, recorded nine sacks and 13 tackles for loss over the offensively challenged Sooners, but were outgained 291 yards to 254. The Aggies have won seven straight since their opening week loss to Notre Dame, and sit atop the SEC standings at 5-0. Not sure who will start at QB in this one for A&M, Conner Weigman or Marcel Reed, but it SHOULD be Reed, who led a second half comeback by running for three TDs in a huge 38-23 win over LSU. The Aggie defense also came up big with three interceptions and two fourth down stops. With NMSU on deck there's no look ahead in this one, and the line seems short to me especially with the Aggies winning nine of the last ten meetings between these two. Lean to Texas A&M.

TENNESSEE (-16) vs Kentucky - Volunteers are off a bye, a week after knocking off Alabama, 24-17, and they've won 36 of the past 39 meetings between these two. But after three nonconference blowout wins by a combined score of 191-13, their offense has stalled since conference play began, averaging 20 points a game ( not counting the TD they scored in OT to beat Florida). Luckily their defense hasn't allowed more than 19 points all season. The Wildcats have been in a freefall with three straight losses since upsetting Ole Miss. I don't play totals, but this game has under written all over it.

BIG Ten

Ohio St (-3', down from -4) at PENN ST. - James Franklin has lost nine of ten meetings to the Buckeyes, but is 7-3 ATS in those games. Not sure if QB Drew Allar will be ready to go in this one, after suffering a knee injury at Wisconsin, but backup Beau Pribula completed 11 of 13 passes for 98 yards, and led two fourth quarter TD drives to lead the Nittany Lions past the Badgers, 28-13. For the season, both QBs are completing well over 70% of their passes. The Buckeyes nearly lost their second game in a row, but narrowly beat Nebraska, 21-17, despite rushing for a mere 64 yards (2.1 YPR). Ohio St. has its' own injury concerns, as star left tackle Josh Simmons was lost for the year with a knee injury at Oregon, and backup Zen Michalski exited the Nebraska game with a leg injury. This game feels different than previous meetings and I like Penn St. to get the Buckeye  monkey off their back with an outright win.

Northwestern (-1, down from -1') at PURDUE - Wildcats hit the road for the second week in a row, after getting pummeled at Iowa, 40-14, while the Boilermakers are off a bye and looking for their first FBS win of the season after getting smoked by Oregon, 35-0, two weeks ago 

Minnesota (-3, up from -2) at ILLINOIS - Golden Gophers have lost the last three meetings, but are on a pretty good run lately going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. Of course they haven't had to play Penn St. or Oregon. The Illini have, losing to both by a combined score of 59-16. Seems odd that Illinois is ranked, but is a home dog here. Could go either way.

Oregon (-15, up from -14') at MICHIGAN - The Wolverines have been a double digit home dog twice since 2013, both times against Ohio St. and in both instances they lost the game but covered the spread. Just sayin'.......Last week they beat Michigan St. 24-17, despite being outgained by 87 yards. The Ducks have been relentless and seem to be getting better by the week. This is a big line, but Michigan's QB issues will keep me away.

Indiana (-8, up from -7) at MICHIGAN ST. - Road team has won the last four meetings. The Hoosiers got past Washington, 31-17 last week, and STILL haven't allowed a first quarter point all season, and have yet to trail in any game this season. They MAY get Kurtis Rourke back for this one, but this game feels a little tricky, going against a Spartans team that probably should've beat Michigan last week.

NEBRASKA (-6', down from -7) vs Ucla - Bruins are off a bye, a week after their best offensive effort of the season in a 35-32 win at Rutgers two weeks ago. Before that though UCLA was averaging just 14.5 points a game, and now face a Cornhuskers defense that's only allowing 11.6 points a game at home, and is coming off a stellar defensive performance at Ohio St., holding the Buckeyes to just 285 yards in a 21-17 loss. UCLA can't run the ball and can't protect the passer. The 'Huskers should be able to stuff that running game and put a lot of heat on QB Ethan Garbers, who's thrown nine interceptions so far this season. I like Nebraska here. Feels like a 24-10 kinda game.

IOWA (-3, down from -3') vs Wisconsin - Hawkeyes have won the last two meetings, but will go into this one with QB  Brendan Sullivan starting for injured Cade McNamara. Don't know how much of a difference that will make since the offense revolves around RB Kaleb Johnson. The Badgers had been on a roll until last week's home loss to Penn St. Tough call.

Usc (-2') at WASHINGTON - Trojans are looking to avenge last year's 52-42 home loss to the national championship runner up. A lot has changed since a year ago. Both teams are 4-4 and fighting for their bowl lives with difficult schedules going forward. USC ended their three game losing streak with a 42-20 drubbing of Rutgers, while Washington has lost back to back games at Iowa and at Indiana.

Big 12

UCF (-6', up from -6) vs Arizona - Yuck. Both teams are spiraling downward. The Wildcats have lost four straight (0-4 ATS), the Knights have lost five straight (1-4 ATS), and both teams are off upset losses at home. Neither team seems to have any answers, and I'm reminded of a Bob Segar lyric, "Working on mysteries without any clues". Pass this.

Kansas St (-13, up from -12') at HOUSTON - Wildcats won last year's first ever meeting, 41-0, and will have to avoid coming into this one a little flat after last week's narrow, 29-27, escape over arch rival Kansas. But if they bring their "A" game they should roll here, behind a balanced offense that averages over 223 yards a game on the ground and over 211 through the air, while their defense is tops in the Big 12 against the rush, allowing just 97 yards a game. The Cougars have won two of their last three with Zeon Chriss at QB, including last week's 17-14 upset win over slumping Utah.

IOWA ST (-13', down from -14') vs Texas Tech - Homecoming game for the Cyclones, who had a bye after surviving an upset scare from UCF. Iowa St. won that game, 38-35, despite allowing a whopping 354 yards rushing (9.1 YPR!!). Still, the 'Clones have outgained their four Big 12 foes by an average of 128 yards a game. The Red Raiders have lost two straight, giving up a combined total of 990 yards, and blew a 34-21 fourth quarter lead to TCU in a 35-34 loss. I don't like taking home favs in Homecoming games, but I'm kinda leaning Iowa St. here. They had a week off to heal and they're the healthiest they've been since September. And they should torch that Tech defense.

Arizona St (-3, up from -1) at OKLAHOMA ST - Sun Devils are off a bye and should get QB Sam Leavitt back from injury after he missed their previous game, a 24-14 loss at Cincy. It's Homecoming for the Cowboys, who have lost all five Big 12 games, (1-4 ATS) and have been outgained by an average of nearly 150 yards a game.

BAYLOR (-3, down from -3') vs Tcu - The Horned Frogs have won the last four meetings, going 3-1 ATS, and enter this matchup on a high note after rallying past Texas Tech this past weekend. Initial lean was on TCU, but the Bears have looked unstoppable in their last two games, with a combined 97 points, 1094 total yards (about 8.9 YPP), including 598 yards rushing (over 8.4 YPR).

@bigred84

 Great writeups Boisestand8. Must read every week. I like to see you favoring the Huskers. I think their defense will be to much for the Bruins to overcome and take care of business handily.  Good luck  on the rest of your picks. I appreciate your time and effort greatly.

@Leroy11

@Boisestateand8

 Well written. Good stuff.

@BlackDawg