What do we know about Auburn and Miss St?

So, what do we know?  Well, we know both teams have solid offenses and are likely to score some points.  I think if we can learn more about the defenses, we will have a better idea of the outcome.  Let's capture some facts...

Auburn:
1)  Auburn played ~ 14 true freshman in the opener.
2)  At least 8 of the 14 true freshman Auburn played was on defense.
3)  One of Auburn's best LB's, senior Craig Stevens (Bednarik watch list) has been suspended indefinitely and apparently, will not be playing Thursday night.... if ever again for the Tigers.
4)  When asked about the success of Arkansas State's short yardage passing game, Coach Chizik was quoted as saying the following:  “They did. They had a dink-and-dunk game going on there … specifically in the second half. Part of that was the design of the coverage. We had a decent lead and we didn’t want to let anything get behind us. But in the first half, that was just bad coverage.”
5)  Chizik referred to the Ark. St. game as a bit of a "guessing game" with their new offensive coordinator.
6)  Auburn allowed Arkansas State 231-yards in the first half and 135-yards in the 2^nd half.  (Closing strong... which was a problem last year).

Okay, I know more about Auburn, so I am hoping somebody else will provide similar information about MSU.  This should get the ball rolling.  Let us focus on the following areas:

1) Last weeks game and what we can/cannot read into it for the defenses performance in Thursday Night's matchup.

2) Last years game and what we can read into it for the defensive performance of each team.

3) The game environment and how it will impact the game.

4) Lastly, direct trends.  Meaning, trends which pertain directly to either Auburn or MSU.  (Indirect would be: "home dogs have won 10 of the last 16).

Okay, let's work together to make sure we do not miss any of the facts!

Start posting what you know!

auburn plays in alabama and miss state plays in imissisippi

Good point!  Nice start!  Keep it going guys and gals!

7)  Auburn coaches have said they plan to play many freshman on defense all season long in order to provide depth, and they are willing to take their bumps and bruises as the young Tigers learn on the field.  So, do not expect Auburn to not play the young defenders against MSU.

Take Auburn large...I don't feel like going into all the reasons.

Fav is 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS L8 at Miss St,

 

I like Miss St  Like the UNDER 56.5 also.

True.  I am too much of a homer for this game.  But, my insight of Auburn could help others on this board make a more informed decision.

No problem!

Mississippi State:

1) Miss. St. defensive coordinator was quoted as saying of Auburn QB Newton, "It's about accepting collateral damage because he's going to get his," Diaz said of Newton. "To me, he's too good of a player to say you're going to shut him down."  - The Dispatch (David Miller)

2) Miss. St DC, Diaz, also believes his players are "half believers" in his philosophy of  'up field pressure'.  (Diaz seems to be a fan of an attacking defense).

Based on this, I would think we will see MSU blitz the front guys and drop the back guys to protect against the big play, which would set MSU up to accept the "collateral damage" of short yardage passes or possibly runs.  Question becomes can Newton deliver....??  Mullins may have some insight here as he coached Newton for a time at Florida, and it was widely thought the final decision for Newton coming out of Juco was between Auburn or Miss. St. because of his respect for Mullins.

Good stuff

3)  "Really, we just got to get off the ball, get up the field," Mississippi State defensive end Pernell McPhee said. "When (Diaz) is saying negative plays, he's talking about tackles in the backfield and creating another line of scrimmage. Really, that's what our focus was in practice (Monday) and this week."  - The Dispatch (David Miller)

4) "We have to spike our gaps and get up field because we know we have help behind us," Mississippi State defensive tackle Josh Boyd said. "It's tough because they do a lot of spread, sweeps and a lot of back-and-forth running to the outside. It's just basically not trying to think so much and just play your keys." - The Dispatch (David Miller)

4)  "We have to spike our gaps and get up field because we know we have help behind us," Mississippi State defensive tackle Josh Boyd said. "It's tough because they do a lot of spread, sweeps and a lot of back-and-forth running to the outside. It's just basically not trying to think so much and just play your keys."  - The Dispatch (David Miller)

Oops!  Sorry about the double post! 

As vanilla as Auburn played last week... MSU also did... On D MSU only used 5 blitzing packages out of 20... Diaz loves to bring pressure and there will be a lot of schemes Auburn hasn't seen yet... You can try to break this game down all you want but its gonna be an all out war... 

5)  "We know he can beat a team by himself, but it ain't going to be like we haven't seen it already," McPhee said. "We see it everyday in practice going against Chris Relf."  - The Dispatch (David Miller)

I have to wonder about this statement.  If Relf could legitimately be compared to Newton, I would not think Relf would be splitting time with Taylor (think that's his name).  Also, Mullins obviously wanted Newton, so do you think, if Newton had decided to go to MSU, he would be starting right now.... I would think so.  So, maybe McPhee is a little mis-calibrated....

Look, I've posted different versions of this all around Covers, but hear it again board....Cam Newton is a Freak, and thats all you need, but its not all we have. We have RB, O-Line, and WR talent that is ridiculous. To me the only question mark here is Auburns D, which, correct me if im wrong, plays against a better version of Miss St's offense every time they practice or scrimmage. Miss St's D has an idea of what Auburn will bring, but they had an idea last year coming off a big win too. Auburn has Miss St's number, again, this year. AU hangs 50 on MSU.

I find it fun breaking down this game, and it helps my nerves... as I am worried.  I know MSU will be crazy... cowbell crazy, and if it is close, I would think MSU pulls it off because of the home crowd and the pure "want it" factor.

My gut says Auburn needs to keep MSU at bay by at least 10pts the entire time... or else, it could go in MSU's favor.

The key could be the run defense....

I have already mentioned it appears MSU will attack and drop back to protect the deep balls allowing for mid to short yardage plays. 

Auburn has implemented a similar philoshophy last year.  So, will Auburn do likewise?  Not sure.  Much of that was a result of depth issues, and Auburn Coaches have implied they plan to use a more aggressive style this year.

So, what becomes important for the offenses? 

two things:
1)  An attacking powerful run (of which neither team really implements) to offset the up field defensive attack.

2)  Get the ball out of the QB's hand.... fast.

Both Auburn and MSU return 4 or 5 starters on the offensive line, so experience is there for each team to have appropriate line blocking....

I never said Auburn would limit Miss St to 10pts.  I said Auburn needs to keep MSU "at bay" by at least 10pts.... there's a difference.

Well, if it goes over 30 I like Auburn's chances....  one would have to think that the depth of talent at Auburn (even though they are still refilling the cupboard)  would out pace MSU in an offensive sprint.

So, I think the only chance MSU has would be to keep Auburn under 30... at least.

Vegas is thinking something in the range of:  Auburn 28 - MSU 26...  But I could easily see a game in that score range being flip flopped.

Does anybody know where you can find a stat on redzone defense for each team?  If both teams are going to allow the mid range plays, redzone defense is going to be critical.

and red zone offense!