Line movement is probably the most confusing aspect of handicapping.
Hindsight is 20/20 so you can always say you should have bet the line at the best number for your side. This is not always practical because A) you never know for sure how a line will move and B) you probably don't have the time to monitor lines 24-7 and C) most people don't have a wide selection of books to shop for lines.
Let's say a line moves from -3 to -6. Is it correct to bet the dog or not bet the game at all? Or are there times when there is still value in the -6?
If you are a pure power ratings handicapper, the answer to this is easy. You have calculated a line for the game, and it is easy to compare that to -6 to see if there is still value.
But most people use more subjective reasoning.
In order to understand the value of a line after it has moved, you have to understand why it moved.
In the next posts, I will try to list the possible reasons for a line move, and the resulting effect on the value of the line.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Line movement is probably the most confusing aspect of handicapping.
Hindsight is 20/20 so you can always say you should have bet the line at the best number for your side. This is not always practical because A) you never know for sure how a line will move and B) you probably don't have the time to monitor lines 24-7 and C) most people don't have a wide selection of books to shop for lines.
Let's say a line moves from -3 to -6. Is it correct to bet the dog or not bet the game at all? Or are there times when there is still value in the -6?
If you are a pure power ratings handicapper, the answer to this is easy. You have calculated a line for the game, and it is easy to compare that to -6 to see if there is still value.
But most people use more subjective reasoning.
In order to understand the value of a line after it has moved, you have to understand why it moved.
In the next posts, I will try to list the possible reasons for a line move, and the resulting effect on the value of the line.
1. Injury - this is common cause for line movement. A star player is injured after the line comes out, or his status changes.
Less experienced handicapper think this is a good angle to bet against teams with an injury. The line may move a point or two, but they think the injured player is worth a lot more than that to the line.
Losing a player certainly hurts, but teams usually rally around an injured player, and the backup will be hungrier and may be almost as talented as the starter.
In NCAA football, I would say this is only a good angle if
A) it is a good QB who is injured and the backup is a bum
B) a position group suffered numerous injuries
C) some teams have a defensive leader, usually a LB or safety that QB the defense.
Sometimes an injured QB will decide to play. If the QB has a shoulder injury, that may be a good fade, especially if he doesn't throw in practise.
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1. Injury - this is common cause for line movement. A star player is injured after the line comes out, or his status changes.
Less experienced handicapper think this is a good angle to bet against teams with an injury. The line may move a point or two, but they think the injured player is worth a lot more than that to the line.
Losing a player certainly hurts, but teams usually rally around an injured player, and the backup will be hungrier and may be almost as talented as the starter.
In NCAA football, I would say this is only a good angle if
A) it is a good QB who is injured and the backup is a bum
B) a position group suffered numerous injuries
C) some teams have a defensive leader, usually a LB or safety that QB the defense.
Sometimes an injured QB will decide to play. If the QB has a shoulder injury, that may be a good fade, especially if he doesn't throw in practise.
3. Lopsided action - books will always move a line if they get too much single-sided action
If you can somehow figure out who is moving the line, you will know where the value is
There are 4 kinds of bettors
1) Homers - there are plenty of college football fans, and most of them will either bet on their team or not bet the game at all. There are a few that will bet against their team when they know the team is really bad (like Cal the last couple years). When a team is winning, the bandwagon gets full, and homers will bet more each game until a loss.
2) Inexperienced cappers - 99% of people fail at sports handicapping, and they lose a lot of money a long the way.
3) Experienced cappers(AKA sharps) - very few in number, but they bet more than consistently than anyone else because they don't lose their bankrolls
4) Tout customers - someone is paying all these touts, and if you pay $100s for picks you are probably betting a lot more on the games
This could be a good angle. If you can eliminate 1, 2, and 4, then you can ride with the sharps, but the sharps aren't always right (especially early in the season) and you always get a worse line than the sharps.
It is easy to know if homers are betting their team. If you know someone that runs a book with 50 customers, you know who the inexperienced bettors like. I think you can chase down who the touts picks are (not sure about this)...
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3. Lopsided action - books will always move a line if they get too much single-sided action
If you can somehow figure out who is moving the line, you will know where the value is
There are 4 kinds of bettors
1) Homers - there are plenty of college football fans, and most of them will either bet on their team or not bet the game at all. There are a few that will bet against their team when they know the team is really bad (like Cal the last couple years). When a team is winning, the bandwagon gets full, and homers will bet more each game until a loss.
2) Inexperienced cappers - 99% of people fail at sports handicapping, and they lose a lot of money a long the way.
3) Experienced cappers(AKA sharps) - very few in number, but they bet more than consistently than anyone else because they don't lose their bankrolls
4) Tout customers - someone is paying all these touts, and if you pay $100s for picks you are probably betting a lot more on the games
This could be a good angle. If you can eliminate 1, 2, and 4, then you can ride with the sharps, but the sharps aren't always right (especially early in the season) and you always get a worse line than the sharps.
It is easy to know if homers are betting their team. If you know someone that runs a book with 50 customers, you know who the inexperienced bettors like. I think you can chase down who the touts picks are (not sure about this)...
Sometime a book will post an early line that is ridiculous, like last year Baylor opened at -20 or so vs Buffalo. The line quickly moved to -28.5 or more and Baylor won by 57.
Why would they do this? It is possible they were flat-out wrong about a line, but there is another possibility
Because the limits on opening lines are low, and the line moved so fast, the books had very little action Baylor at a line lower than 27. This is more than offset by the amount of money not bet on Baylor because the bettor thought there was no "value" in Baylor -28.5 so they passed on the game or took Buffalo.
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4. "Bait and Switch" line
Sometime a book will post an early line that is ridiculous, like last year Baylor opened at -20 or so vs Buffalo. The line quickly moved to -28.5 or more and Baylor won by 57.
Why would they do this? It is possible they were flat-out wrong about a line, but there is another possibility
Because the limits on opening lines are low, and the line moved so fast, the books had very little action Baylor at a line lower than 27. This is more than offset by the amount of money not bet on Baylor because the bettor thought there was no "value" in Baylor -28.5 so they passed on the game or took Buffalo.
Good stuff. While I think line moves should be a tool in your handicapping evaluation bag, I dont puta lot of stok in it. Like you said, there are several unknowns and trying to figre out why will take your time and focus off more importnat things.
The only time I really eyeball a ine move is when the line is "obviously" going he "wrong" way. Doesnt happen that often, but it sticks out when it does. Its reverse line movement, but not just any movement.When a favorite has an already favorable line (meaning that anyone that has gambled for awhile can see whos gonna get most of the action) and the line keeps getting better....be very cautious. This will often time happen when a road favorite is favored by less than a td ( ranked vs unranked will get this scenario often). You see the 10th ranked team open @ -6.5 vs a team that just got killed last week. Sweet, you say to yourself....easy money right? Now, saturday morning rolls around and nothing has changed...except the line is now -3.5......
Just my 2c
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Good stuff. While I think line moves should be a tool in your handicapping evaluation bag, I dont puta lot of stok in it. Like you said, there are several unknowns and trying to figre out why will take your time and focus off more importnat things.
The only time I really eyeball a ine move is when the line is "obviously" going he "wrong" way. Doesnt happen that often, but it sticks out when it does. Its reverse line movement, but not just any movement.When a favorite has an already favorable line (meaning that anyone that has gambled for awhile can see whos gonna get most of the action) and the line keeps getting better....be very cautious. This will often time happen when a road favorite is favored by less than a td ( ranked vs unranked will get this scenario often). You see the 10th ranked team open @ -6.5 vs a team that just got killed last week. Sweet, you say to yourself....easy money right? Now, saturday morning rolls around and nothing has changed...except the line is now -3.5......
I do not think that it takes as much these days to move a number as it used to. You have only to watch the Wynn put their numbers up on Sunday and see what happens. These days Bookmaking is more of a business and less of a means to attract more bodies into a casino. Bettors have become more sophisticated and there is pressure on Sportsbook Directors to minimize risk and maximize profit.Bookmakers tend to have less confidence in the number they hang and are more concerned with the guys and their computer looking to score. To that end, the best thing to do is to move the number quickly to reduce the chance the number they posted was way off.Offshore books do the same thing , and lines move on a lot less. Bookmakers are no different in their approach than we should be. How do we minimize risk when we make awager ? Is the question we should ask, just as a Bookmaker asks , " How do we minimize risk when we hang a line ? " This is where the great matchup lies. each week. The Difference : Most bettors don't ask themselves this question before they make a wager. I can assure you that every bookmaker asks this question before they put a number up on the board. That's their edge. Something to ponder, before you make your next wager.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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I do not think that it takes as much these days to move a number as it used to. You have only to watch the Wynn put their numbers up on Sunday and see what happens. These days Bookmaking is more of a business and less of a means to attract more bodies into a casino. Bettors have become more sophisticated and there is pressure on Sportsbook Directors to minimize risk and maximize profit.Bookmakers tend to have less confidence in the number they hang and are more concerned with the guys and their computer looking to score. To that end, the best thing to do is to move the number quickly to reduce the chance the number they posted was way off.Offshore books do the same thing , and lines move on a lot less. Bookmakers are no different in their approach than we should be. How do we minimize risk when we make awager ? Is the question we should ask, just as a Bookmaker asks , " How do we minimize risk when we hang a line ? " This is where the great matchup lies. each week. The Difference : Most bettors don't ask themselves this question before they make a wager. I can assure you that every bookmaker asks this question before they put a number up on the board. That's their edge. Something to ponder, before you make your next wager.
Im.ete: Orito.folly Posted by WISEGUY36]I do not think that it takes as much these days to move anumber as it used to. You have only to watch the Wynnput their numbers up on Sunday and see what happens.These days Bookmaking is more of a business and less of a means to attract more bodies into a casino. Bettorshave become more sophisticated and there is pressureon Sportsbook Directors to minimize risk and maximizeprofit.Bookmakers tend to have less confidence in thenumber they hang and are more concerned with the guysand their computer looking to score. To that end, the bestthing to do is to move the number quickly to reduce thechance the number they posted was way off.Offshorebooks do the same thing , and lines move on a lot less.Bookmakers are no different in their approach than weshould be. How do we minimize risk when we make a wager ? Is the question we should ask, just as a Bookmaker asks , " How do we minimize risk when we hang a line ? " This is where the great matchuplies. each week.The Difference : Most bettors don't ask themselves thisquestion before they make a wager. I can assure you that every bookmaker asks this question before they puta number up on the board. That's their edge.Something to ponder, before you make your next wager.[/Quote]
Dang!!! Preach it brother!! Im excited to follow you this year brother. I think your primed for your best year yet!! BOL my friend!!
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Im.ete: Orito.folly Posted by WISEGUY36]I do not think that it takes as much these days to move anumber as it used to. You have only to watch the Wynnput their numbers up on Sunday and see what happens.These days Bookmaking is more of a business and less of a means to attract more bodies into a casino. Bettorshave become more sophisticated and there is pressureon Sportsbook Directors to minimize risk and maximizeprofit.Bookmakers tend to have less confidence in thenumber they hang and are more concerned with the guysand their computer looking to score. To that end, the bestthing to do is to move the number quickly to reduce thechance the number they posted was way off.Offshorebooks do the same thing , and lines move on a lot less.Bookmakers are no different in their approach than weshould be. How do we minimize risk when we make a wager ? Is the question we should ask, just as a Bookmaker asks , " How do we minimize risk when we hang a line ? " This is where the great matchuplies. each week.The Difference : Most bettors don't ask themselves thisquestion before they make a wager. I can assure you that every bookmaker asks this question before they puta number up on the board. That's their edge.Something to ponder, before you make your next wager.[/Quote]
Dang!!! Preach it brother!! Im excited to follow you this year brother. I think your primed for your best year yet!! BOL my friend!!
Here's a question for someone who knows the answer - not someone who offers their theory on the answer, but who KNOWS the answer. Here's the question: When there has been significant line movement on a game, how do you know whether it is because of lopsided action from the betting public, or lopsided action from sharps? How do you know?
The answer to this question can go a long way to determining whether the line movement is exploitable after the move or for a middle (in addition to whether and how many key numbers the movement may have crossed)....
GW
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Here's a question for someone who knows the answer - not someone who offers their theory on the answer, but who KNOWS the answer. Here's the question: When there has been significant line movement on a game, how do you know whether it is because of lopsided action from the betting public, or lopsided action from sharps? How do you know?
The answer to this question can go a long way to determining whether the line movement is exploitable after the move or for a middle (in addition to whether and how many key numbers the movement may have crossed)....
GW , To answer that question, you need to know a little about the history of sportsbetting here in Las Vegas. Before I moved here in '94 , I used to fly in on weekends to wager on football.From 1986 to 1994 , it was a great time to be a sports bettor. For me, Gene Maday's Little Caesars Casino was the place to go to make a wager for a number of reasons I'll not go into detail here as time will not permit. When they closed, The Stardust became the place to go as they were the not the first to hang a line as Sands and IP ( JK used to work there ) would put up the first lines between noon and 3 on Sunday. The Stardust lines went up about 6pm Sunday night. and was widely known as the Vegas line.Guys like me would be there drawing for position in line to bet their opening lines. To get a crack at an opportunity to wager on opening numbers that offered the best value. This was widely considered to be sharp money and the lines moved accordingly . After the Stardust closed in 2006, The Palms held this ritual for a few years. Now you see much of this action occurring in Books from Offshore as LV 's appetite for risk has waned. The common denominator in all this is that sharp money is early and late money as sharps can and do let the public move lines in order to create value for themselves. That's how it has always been and that's how it will work in the future.
Hope this helps unravel the mystery
Best of Luck to All
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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GW , To answer that question, you need to know a little about the history of sportsbetting here in Las Vegas. Before I moved here in '94 , I used to fly in on weekends to wager on football.From 1986 to 1994 , it was a great time to be a sports bettor. For me, Gene Maday's Little Caesars Casino was the place to go to make a wager for a number of reasons I'll not go into detail here as time will not permit. When they closed, The Stardust became the place to go as they were the not the first to hang a line as Sands and IP ( JK used to work there ) would put up the first lines between noon and 3 on Sunday. The Stardust lines went up about 6pm Sunday night. and was widely known as the Vegas line.Guys like me would be there drawing for position in line to bet their opening lines. To get a crack at an opportunity to wager on opening numbers that offered the best value. This was widely considered to be sharp money and the lines moved accordingly . After the Stardust closed in 2006, The Palms held this ritual for a few years. Now you see much of this action occurring in Books from Offshore as LV 's appetite for risk has waned. The common denominator in all this is that sharp money is early and late money as sharps can and do let the public move lines in order to create value for themselves. That's how it has always been and that's how it will work in the future.
Forgot to mention that the first line up here in LV currently is offered by the Wynn at 3;00 on Sunday , and yes, we are there standing in line waiting to bet the number.as it comes out.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Forgot to mention that the first line up here in LV currently is offered by the Wynn at 3;00 on Sunday , and yes, we are there standing in line waiting to bet the number.as it comes out.
What you say makes sense Wiseguy. Thanks. I'll be at the Wynn next month - needless to say I'm going to hang around the sports book and check it out Sunday at 3! Thx....
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What you say makes sense Wiseguy. Thanks. I'll be at the Wynn next month - needless to say I'm going to hang around the sports book and check it out Sunday at 3! Thx....
What you say makes sense Wiseguy. Thanks. I'll be at the Wynn next month - needless to say I'm going to hang around the sports book and check it out Sunday at 3! Thx....
Be sure to get there early as they start standing in line shortly after two. There are only 1 - 2 ticket writers for cfb lines and you can get 20 + people standing in line to make a wager.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by gwjtf:
What you say makes sense Wiseguy. Thanks. I'll be at the Wynn next month - needless to say I'm going to hang around the sports book and check it out Sunday at 3! Thx....
Be sure to get there early as they start standing in line shortly after two. There are only 1 - 2 ticket writers for cfb lines and you can get 20 + people standing in line to make a wager.
Little Caesars was great for a number of reasons IMO. Gene hung a good number and it was you vs him. It's not like that any more as most books are waiting for others to hang the number so they don't look foolish, or get their clock cleaned. There were never any wager limits, I tend to keep a low profile and focus on business and there you had no problem being one of the crowd. Unless your name was Bob Stupak and you had your Stupakmobile parked out in front. They had a bank of a dozen pay phones right outside the front door.I'm sure you can figure that one out. I never had to worry about finding a cab cause all of them were at LC's playing 25 cent craps after 9 . A couple of doors down was my favorite Chinese Rest - aurant. On Saturday , I would never watch the games , but I go there and have lunch with the owner and her son. I used to tell them how their place was " lucky " for me and as soon as I walked in, they'd start preparing .Since LC's had no food service, it worked out great.It was a different era in sports betting then, and I'm glad I got to be a part of it. The place used to be in a little strip center that is now occupied by Paris. Times change. Now, I'll go to a number of different books to place a bet, but it still boils down to seeking value and if value is not present , to pass on a wager. to have longevity in sports betting, you must have discipline.
Best of Luck to you.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Little Caesars was great for a number of reasons IMO. Gene hung a good number and it was you vs him. It's not like that any more as most books are waiting for others to hang the number so they don't look foolish, or get their clock cleaned. There were never any wager limits, I tend to keep a low profile and focus on business and there you had no problem being one of the crowd. Unless your name was Bob Stupak and you had your Stupakmobile parked out in front. They had a bank of a dozen pay phones right outside the front door.I'm sure you can figure that one out. I never had to worry about finding a cab cause all of them were at LC's playing 25 cent craps after 9 . A couple of doors down was my favorite Chinese Rest - aurant. On Saturday , I would never watch the games , but I go there and have lunch with the owner and her son. I used to tell them how their place was " lucky " for me and as soon as I walked in, they'd start preparing .Since LC's had no food service, it worked out great.It was a different era in sports betting then, and I'm glad I got to be a part of it. The place used to be in a little strip center that is now occupied by Paris. Times change. Now, I'll go to a number of different books to place a bet, but it still boils down to seeking value and if value is not present , to pass on a wager. to have longevity in sports betting, you must have discipline.
GW, There were a few of bookmakers back then who paved the way in the sports betting industry , IMO the most legendary was Sonny Reizner, this was a time when bookmakers were personalities as well. You might want to do a little research on Sonny to get some insight on the evolution of the industry. if you are interested.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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GW, There were a few of bookmakers back then who paved the way in the sports betting industry , IMO the most legendary was Sonny Reizner, this was a time when bookmakers were personalities as well. You might want to do a little research on Sonny to get some insight on the evolution of the industry. if you are interested.
i remember LY(i think) sometime between weeks 1-4(sorry i cant be more precise)
there were 2 games at -5 each, the line went down 2 on both making them -3. you would assume the dogg would be a good ML play. nope, both dogs got blown out the f'n the water.
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i remember LY(i think) sometime between weeks 1-4(sorry i cant be more precise)
there were 2 games at -5 each, the line went down 2 on both making them -3. you would assume the dogg would be a good ML play. nope, both dogs got blown out the f'n the water.
GW, Sorry for being somewhat cryptic in my previous post regarding Little Caesars I'm not one to discuss my gaming exploits or how much I wager or where I do my wagering currently.as that is confidential. But I do look back on days past as a time of learning about sports betting and growing in my understanding of analytics, risk, and money management that has paid dividends since.Those years are still special to me Thanks for letting me share a few details.
Best of Luck to you
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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GW, Sorry for being somewhat cryptic in my previous post regarding Little Caesars I'm not one to discuss my gaming exploits or how much I wager or where I do my wagering currently.as that is confidential. But I do look back on days past as a time of learning about sports betting and growing in my understanding of analytics, risk, and money management that has paid dividends since.Those years are still special to me Thanks for letting me share a few details.
Thanks wiseguy, appreciate the share & I probably will research Sonny a bit, whom of course I've heard of but never really knew much about. Post your plays this year if you have time and also, particularly, the reasoning behind the plays ... Tree88, JDN (when he was here) and others with capping skills sharing the reasoning behind the play gives education to all and are what these boards are supposed to be about... thanks for contributing ....
GW
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Thanks wiseguy, appreciate the share & I probably will research Sonny a bit, whom of course I've heard of but never really knew much about. Post your plays this year if you have time and also, particularly, the reasoning behind the plays ... Tree88, JDN (when he was here) and others with capping skills sharing the reasoning behind the play gives education to all and are what these boards are supposed to be about... thanks for contributing ....
Be sure to get there early as they start standing in line shortly after two. There are only 1 - 2 ticket writers for cfb lines and you can get 20 + people standing in line to make a wager.
I hear you - this is a real peeve of mine, sports books are in business to offer wagers on sporting contests and collect a generous commission regardless of proposition. Last year I wanted to place one of my largest bets of the year at the MGM and made the mistake of getting to the book probably about 15 minutes too late, but still 20-30 minutes before kickoff. The book had a line of bettors overflowing out of the sports book and 50 feet or more into the casino and did not have all its betting windows open, only about two-thirds and a couple of those were for the ponies. I could not get down on a very strong play and of course my team covered and it cost me a lot of money I would have otherwise won had MGM been doing their job.
I let the book manager know what I thought of his management abilities, walked across the street to the Trop & have not placed a wager there again. Any book on weekends particularly in football season that doesn't staff themselves adequately to ensure everyone can get down on a bet doesn't deserve our business, ya? ...
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
Be sure to get there early as they start standing in line shortly after two. There are only 1 - 2 ticket writers for cfb lines and you can get 20 + people standing in line to make a wager.
I hear you - this is a real peeve of mine, sports books are in business to offer wagers on sporting contests and collect a generous commission regardless of proposition. Last year I wanted to place one of my largest bets of the year at the MGM and made the mistake of getting to the book probably about 15 minutes too late, but still 20-30 minutes before kickoff. The book had a line of bettors overflowing out of the sports book and 50 feet or more into the casino and did not have all its betting windows open, only about two-thirds and a couple of those were for the ponies. I could not get down on a very strong play and of course my team covered and it cost me a lot of money I would have otherwise won had MGM been doing their job.
I let the book manager know what I thought of his management abilities, walked across the street to the Trop & have not placed a wager there again. Any book on weekends particularly in football season that doesn't staff themselves adequately to ensure everyone can get down on a bet doesn't deserve our business, ya? ...
I hear you - this is a real peeve of mine, sports books are in business to offer wagers on sporting contests and collect a generous commission regardless of proposition. Last year I wanted to place one of my largest bets of the year at the MGM and made the mistake of getting to the book probably about 15 minutes too late, but still 20-30 minutes before kickoff. The book had a line of bettors overflowing out of the sports book and 50 feet or more into the casino and did not have all its betting windows open, only about two-thirds and a couple of those were for the ponies. I could not get down on a very strong play and of course my team covered and it cost me a lot of money I would have otherwise won had MGM been doing their job.
I let the book manager know what I thought of his management abilities, walked across the street to the Trop & have not placed a wager there again. Any book on weekends particularly in football season that doesn't staff themselves adequately to ensure everyone can get down on a bet doesn't deserve our business, ya? ...
GW, That's very interesing , as that has only happened to me once in my wagering career , and it happened at the MGM also. I have never been back there since.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by gwjtf:
I hear you - this is a real peeve of mine, sports books are in business to offer wagers on sporting contests and collect a generous commission regardless of proposition. Last year I wanted to place one of my largest bets of the year at the MGM and made the mistake of getting to the book probably about 15 minutes too late, but still 20-30 minutes before kickoff. The book had a line of bettors overflowing out of the sports book and 50 feet or more into the casino and did not have all its betting windows open, only about two-thirds and a couple of those were for the ponies. I could not get down on a very strong play and of course my team covered and it cost me a lot of money I would have otherwise won had MGM been doing their job.
I let the book manager know what I thought of his management abilities, walked across the street to the Trop & have not placed a wager there again. Any book on weekends particularly in football season that doesn't staff themselves adequately to ensure everyone can get down on a bet doesn't deserve our business, ya? ...
GW, That's very interesing , as that has only happened to me once in my wagering career , and it happened at the MGM also. I have never been back there since.
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