I want to preach something very important to each and every one of you. $$ will be made on this game one way or another (most likely the bookies) due to the fact that degenerates everywhere can not help themselves and feel the need to take action on this game. Michigan is a 4 pt favorite currently on the road at penn state. Unfortunately there has been controversy surrounding this program. I can get past that and the analytics do say Michigan should win this game but let me go over a few key points.
1. michigan has blown out every team they’ve faced this year but at the same time they have not played much competition at all this year. We need to see how they perform tomorrow before we can throw $ on or against them in any ranked matchup. Their performance tomorrow will help us determine who we should take in the Ohio st matchup
2. location. Going back to the previous point we haven’t seen Michigan play much competition but let’s not understate the fact that they are going into a hostile environment. If this game is in Michigan and they’re 7-8 pt favorites they’re potentially the play but on the road it’s gotta be a pass for now.
3. Penn states track record. They have not shown up vs Michigan or Ohio st the past few years. They make it look easy (especially this year) against everyone else but look at what happened on the road in Columbus earlier this year. Now I know this is a different (and better) penn state team than they have been in years past and other teams from other years are somewhat irrelevant but it’s still something to consider
4. quarterback drew aller. This is one of the better penn state teams we’ve seen overall in recent years and he was a top recruit out of HS. He definitely has talent but his performance 18/42 in Columbus vs the best defense he’s seen all year was pathetic and he was a major factor in the loss. We have to see how he plays tomorrow before we can make rational decisions from a gambling stand point on this team in big matchups
ultimately in my opinion there is unfortunately not enough data to conclusively take either side in this matchup with the current Michigan -4 spread. Pretty crazy considering the fact that we are approaching the end of the season. Unfortunately both teams have played weak schedules to this point and this is michigans first true test.
it’s important to note that this is a must watch game as a business man because Michigan will be playing Ohio st in the upcoming weeks and this game could have an effect on the big 10 championship as well.
I tend to not make impulsive decisions and gamble on games early in the season until I have enough information to make a rational decision. You would think this far into the season we’d have that but unfortunately with these 2 teams this might as well be a September matchup because we don’t have great insight on either side at this very moment.
Good luck tomorrow
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