Why Washington getting 9.5 Points? Huskies already beat Ducks.

@NutinButtLove

 Lol

Calculus to my dog!!   Lololololol

Been saying it all along...Oregon needs to win big or convincing...IF Bama Beats Georgia...both Bama and Georgia are in...If Texas wins and wins BIG....They might leap frog Oregon with Bama winning as they will have the beaten Bama on the road the SEC Champion.....Oregon won't know any of this as they play Friday..So they best win and win big if possible..

       With all due respect, I may know something you dont. Lets look at both teams from a pure points perspective, a pure points perspective in both clubs last 3-4 road performances. Keep the home game or whatever these two clubs have done at home or in September at the door, because thats all irelevant and means nothing. 

      Recent form is key, recent road form is the expanded key that will will  unlock the winner of this matchup straight up and against the number. This is the key that you should be paying attention to. When I use the term "recent form", I'm referring to the most recent road performance / statistics of both clubs using a pure points mathematical  model.

       A pure points mathematical model is a model of eliminating all the noise from the recent road offensive and defensive points for (PF) and points against( PA) which is a painstaking process through the art of reading play by play and eliminating the points scored off turnovers, the points scored on a defense that wasn't on the field while the points were being scored ie Interception back for TD, punt returns for a TD, fumble recovery back for TD's, including Team A fumbles ..Team B recovers not to the endzone but a drive that ends in a score. Big difference than them recovering a fumble and running it to the EZ for a score. In this instance, the offense has the opportunity to score off the fumble which should be taken off that teams final offensive score. They didn't score the points on their own..they were gifted the points from the other team and should not be awarded that score. Just as an Int / KO /PR for a TD. You cant charge the defense with any of those scores, because they were not on the field at the time of the score and with a special teams TD the offense wasn't on the field either so you cant award them with the score as well. Very complicated. 

       Now once we have all this configured ie the recent 3-4 game true pure point offensive and defensive  road performances, then you have what we call a " True Raw " compilation of what  both clubs true offense and defense really is. .not what you see in the final score on the scoreboard. True / Raw Pure fucking Points to a T. That's the key. more on this matchup later 

@Nabooru

Does it look like a trap line? Yep. Is Vegas begging you to bet on Washington? Yep. Do I think Oregon is a better squad at this time of the season? Yep. But who knows...If you like #3 Wahington +9.5 to +11 can compete with Oregon, then bet it and sprinkle a little on the money line. 

As for @NutinButtLove, that is what you call A Classic Know-It-Fkn Clown.  BOL 

     Wash defense on the road last 4 gave up 20 to Oreg St /  42 to USC /  and 33 to Stanford / and 24 to Arizona ( Average road defense last 4..( 28 )

     Ducks "D" on the road last 4 gave up 13 to Ari St / 6 to Utah/ 36 to Wash / and 6 to Stanford the only common opponent w/ Wash  (Average road defense last 4  (9.5 )

      When we tighten it up using last 3 road games most recent form. Washing is at 33 avearge, Ducks 13 average

     Your point is well taken that Oregon defense is solid and according to my numbers I agree..and Washingtons defense is not solid and if the objective is to get into the endzone to score points..Oregon will have an easier time doing that with their offense than Washington will be able to do to Oregon with thiers

FWIW Brothas, local sports book writer says Everyone is taking Huskies +9'..Everybody....Linemakers begging for Husky $$$,... 

We all know what happens when Joe Public bets at 90% rate..  

Their is some great research and angles being presented within this thread... Carry on 

@NutinButtLove

 Why would you argue with someone who doesn’t want to be forced to take an experimental drug that doesn’t prevent anything?

Oregon is 100% IN after they CRUSH Washington..

@Wizerguy

 Where did you copy paste this from?

@SURFSUP

 NUTTINBUTTLOVE might be nasty in terms of thinking he is a sharp bettor BUT that doesn’t mean he isn’t correct. The public is pounding Washington and the spread keeps going in Oregons favor…from 7 to 9.5! 

I have a Washington Futures ticket and love Washington BUT I’m forced into taking them with the points to try to salvage this. Everything says Oregon wins this game big and NUTTINBUTTLOVE is correct in terms of being on the “sharp side” of the action.

That’s what he isn’t willing to explain to you. The fact that he thinks explaining it to a “public bettor” like you will change how the lines move is humorous though. 

I know who knows…

Lanning knows that he needs to KICK A*** Big - Time…he needs to IMPRESS

Style points

    I didn't copy and paste it from anywhere. You're just to green to know what I'm even talking about. You never even heard of any of this stuff because your Football IQ is Zero.

   If you think I copied and pasted it, do some research ass-wipe and find out where, then come back and see me and copy and paste it here______ or come see me in my NFL thread and you will learn how to properly handicap games, instead of properly being  a prospect troll with no posting of plays , no YTD record or units won or lost. Now go to cooking website and get lost punk because you don't contribute anything whatsoever to this site since you been here

@ToneKapone13

 PS: I can tell you have no clue on how to handicap games using a true pure points differential, you were on Penn St when they played Michigan and lost your ass..lol

Thank you for the insights Wizer! Super helpful. Am on this game big myself, BOL to us

It must  be  that time of the year again. Get em Cuz    

Wizer  

Ducks are hitting their stride and something is wrong with Washington and their qb. Tough one though because if Washington is ok they may of been looking ahead last week and will get a close game. Hoping for a good one. GO DUCKS!;)

@CalBear2009

 Welcome bro..here to help

@WISEGUY36

    We are Blood Cuz !..lol

@CalBear2009

 Going to do a pure points/ game thoery  run down on both clubs last 3-4 road games...this is a road game for both

"This will be 9th time the Pac-12 title game is a rematch from the regular season ... The team that won the first matchup is 7-1 in the champ game."

@SPark1

Although that trend favors WASH to win straight up, I bet those previous championship game spreads were not near this big!

If it was close like under 7, I'd say that trend favors WASH, but otherwise being that big of dawg, I see ORE winning. Will ORE cover or not, is the bigger question.

A big or  play or screw at the end or late in a close game can cover 10 real fast. 

There was an excuse when Penix beat em in Eugene last season and another one in Washington this season. Don’t you think he knows how to beat em a 3rd time? Both games came down to the wire. Huskies were getting +12 in Oregon and won SU.

GLTA