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WISEGUY36 2013 College Football season selections

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Legend
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Posted: #26
To All :
I do not normally do writeups on my selections due to all
the work I put into making a " prime pick " selection , but I
feel compelled to share a few things that went into my
making the Bama pick.

This game compares in a large number of areas to
the 2012 Week 1 Bama / Michigan matchup with
notable exceptions:

1. Alabama OL experience. Not quite up to last year,but
    more than up to the task in this game.

2. Michigan overall had superior defensive stats com -
    pared to Va Tech's team defense in the this years
    game.

3. Michigan had superior QB play going into last years
    game as compared to Va Tech in this years game.

4. Michigan's OL was superior to what Va Tech will
    produce in Week ! vs Bama.

   Just a few things to think about that I wanted to share
   about this game. I also should mention Va Tech's new
   WR's going against a superior secondary, as well as
   Va Tech's best CB , Antone Exum out for this game ,
   Should also mention Va Tech's got a new Off Coord.
   as well as a new O Line coach.
   These are some of the reasons I felt compelled to
   bet this game , as I believe Va Tech has a lot to
   overcome in Game one. They must prepare to be
   respectable in conference play. I believe their game
   with Bama will tell them just how much work remains.

   Best of Luck to all


Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #27
One more thing I think I should mention.
Last year Phil Steele in his "power rating " had Bama
11 points better than Michigan.Final score Bama 41 -14.
This year he has Bama 13 points better than Va Tech.
Final score : ????????
I believe he is putting too much faith in Logan Thomas.

Best of Luck to All
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #28
I am the ultimate skeptic with favs and cant find a reason to play VT
 
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Posted: #29
WiseGuy
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Posted: #30
Mega, I completely agree , as I look for reasons not  to
make a selection rather than reasons why I should as a
big part of my handicapping strategy.

Mega 

LH  
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #31
18 DAYS TILL GAMEDAY !!!!!!



Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #32
 
Legend
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Posted: #33
Good Luck  this year Wise   
 
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Posted: #34
 
Captain
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Posted: #35
wiseguy, it's time you get excited for the season already.
 
Legend
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Posted: #36
Mega ,   BOL

LVT ,   BOL

Motowner , Just trying to remind those playing on Bama
                    to avoid the rush and get their bets down
                    before the price goes up .
                    
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #37
Wizer, How ya doing Bud ? Are you ready for week 1?

Best of Luck to you this season my friend
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #38
Take the stroll to the pay window many times this season Wiseguy36 and hopefully I will be able to meet you there to enjoy some ice cold ones with you in celebration! Much appreciate your postings.
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
Legend
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

Take the stroll to the pay window many times this season Wiseguy36 and hopefully I will be able to meet you there to enjoy some ice cold ones with you in celebration! Much appreciate your postings.



Urban, looking forward to renewing my acquaintance with
Las Vegas' finest sportsooks and especially their
cashiers. Greatest feeling in the world is taking one of
those tickets and converting it into United States legal
tender. Thanks for your kind words.

Best of Luck to you this season 
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posted: #40
Update: . Injuries to personnel on the Va Tech roster
continue to pile up. Please check the injuries /suspensions
thread for an update by Bookie Assassin.
I think anyone contemplating a wager on this game will
be interested.

Best of Luck to all 
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Record to Date:         0  of   0 =  000 %
Bankroll to Date   =   100 % of original bankroll

WEEK 1 Selections - Prime picks only

BAMA  - 17  - 110      27 % of current bankroll at risk

Result :      TBD

Best of Luck to All 




I thought that I would post this example to show the
relationship between Win Probability and the Kelly
optimum bet strategy. Yes It's from 2013, but it
still makes my point . I also thought I'd remind some
on this Forum that I posted plays here in 2013.

In this example , I calculated a 65 % Win Probability
in this matchup . According to Kelly , the " Optimum
Bet " for that WP is 27 % of total bankroll, which is
the amount that was wagered.
The final score of this game was Bama 35 - 10.
This is just an example of how you can minimize
risk if you can accurately measure your Win
Probability while maximizing your returns at the
same time.

Good Luck
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





I thought that I would post this example to show the
relationship between Win Probability and the Kelly
optimum bet strategy. Yes It's from 2013, but it
still makes my point . I also thought I'd remind some
on this Forum that I posted plays here in 2013.

In this example , I calculated a 65 % Win Probability
in this matchup . According to Kelly , the " Optimum
Bet " for that WP is 27 % of total bankroll, which is
the amount that was wagered.
The final score of this game was Bama 35 - 10.
This is just an example of how you can minimize
risk if you can accurately measure your Win
Probability while maximizing your returns at the
same time.

Good Luck




It's also important to note that I contrary to others,
I calculate Win Probability based on point spread.
You cannot utilize Kelly successfully without the
ability to do that.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





I thought that I would post this example to show the
relationship between Win Probability and the Kelly
optimum bet strategy. Yes It's from 2013, but it
still makes my point . I also thought I'd remind some
on this Forum that I posted plays here in 2013.

In this example , I calculated a 65 % Win Probability
in this matchup . According to Kelly , the " Optimum
Bet " for that WP is 27 % of total bankroll, which is
the amount that was wagered.
The final score of this game was Bama 35 - 10.
This is just an example of how you can minimize
risk if you can accurately measure your Win
Probability while maximizing your returns at the
same time.

Good Luck





It's important to note that since 2013 , my ability to
determine Win Probability has improved somewhat.
This same play in 2018 would carry a WP of 72 %
making my " Optimum Bet "  40 % of bankroll.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #44

Wiseguy - i've been reading all your recent posts but haven't yet had a chance to reply.  Appreciate all the info as it has been a good read.  Any info/direction you care to give how you go about calculating Win Probability would be greatly appreciated as well.  Thanks Sir!

 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:






It's important to note that since 2013 , my ability to
determine Win Probability has improved somewhat.
This same play in 2018 would carry a WP of 72 %
making my " Optimum Bet "  40 % of bankroll.

i am going to guess that previous data on bama and saban in that similar situation ie.. situation, point spread would give you the win probability ? 

thank you in advance!
 
Legend
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by traderjoe13:


i am going to guess that previous data on bama and saban in that similar situation ie.. situation, point spread would give you the win probability ? 

thank you in advance!




It's actually quite a bit more complicated than that.

Good Luck to You this season. 
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posted: #47
 I joined this Forum back in 2012 to share with others
some of what I have learned in my years capping
this sport that I dearly love. From my days of flying
out to Las Vegas every Friday night from Chicago
in the early '80s to bet College Football to when I
finally moved to here to Las Vegas in 1993. I've
learned a lot over the years , and I was always very
thankful of others who were willing to share their
knowledge with me, and thus make me better at this.
Since I joined this forum, I have also tried share with
others as well.
Since 2012 , I have written many posts on the subject
of capping methods, win probability , and yes even on
some of the biggest errors I made during my learning
process. Very few on the Forum ever responded to
those posts.While I don't know why that is so , I had
nothing but the best of intentions in trying to share
what I had learned in my career on capping CFB.
I hope all on the Forum know that.

Good Luck to All this College Football season.
 
 

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Legend
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





In my Post # 41, I posted an example to show the
relationship between Win Probability and the Kelly
optimum bet strategy. Yes It's from 2013, but it
still makes my point . I also thought I'd remind some
on this Forum that I posted plays here in 2013.

In this example , I calculated a 65 % Win Probability
in this matchup . According to Kelly , the " Optimum
Bet " for that WP is 27 % of total bankroll, which is
the amount that was wagered.
The final score of this game was Bama 35 - 10.
This is just an example of how you can minimize
risk if you can accurately measure your Win
Probability while maximizing your returns at the
same time.

Good Luck




Most measure their season results by wins and
losses , units up .... or down, and that's OK for
most.
Those methods of measurement are only indicative
of " Short Term " results and not necessarily future
results.
To accurately measure future results , you need a
different unit of measure. The one that works for
me is to measure my projected MOV  vs the actual
MOV of any matchup that I choose to wager on .
I play 30 - 40 games per season.
At seasons end, I will calculate the average MOV
differential over all games played to verify my level
of accuracy for the season . For the last 7 seasons,
I have seen improvement in accuracy EVERY year.
This method confirms that I am going in the right
direction with my capping method.
Many on the Forum will volunteer their assessment
of what the line should be , but few monitor their
assessment  vs the actual result of the matchup.
I urge others to be cautious and learn to measure TLV.

You will profit from the effort.  

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #49

Aloha,

Many apologies if you have addressed this in another thread - What are your thoughts on Bama's win total being at 11.5?

Thanks

 
 
Legend
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by Volatilis:

Aloha,

Many apologies if you have addressed this in another thread - What are your thoughts on Bama's win total being at 11.5?

Thanks






Aloha, Mahalo nui for stopping by. I typically do not
play season totals, as once capital is committed to
them , a key injury can take you out. The Bama
total leaves no margin for error.
It's kinda like Book offering the tide @ + 200 to win
it all. I see no value there.

I prefer to play them in individual matchups where
Bookmakers will give me an edge. I can make a lot
more on compounding returns on a weekly basis
while assuming a lot less risk.

Looking forward to the season .Good Luck Bud
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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