Many apologies if you have addressed this in another thread - What are your thoughts on Bama's win total being at 11.5?
Thanks
To expand on this just a bit. The Tide has lost a number of defensive starters from last season , but the greatest risk to success of this prop is this.
If Tua goes down with a season ending injury , and Hurts has graduated and left the program.
That's more risk than I'm willing to assume.
Good Luck Bud
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by Volatilis:
Aloha,
Many apologies if you have addressed this in another thread - What are your thoughts on Bama's win total being at 11.5?
Thanks
To expand on this just a bit. The Tide has lost a number of defensive starters from last season , but the greatest risk to success of this prop is this.
If Tua goes down with a season ending injury , and Hurts has graduated and left the program.
So, how much of your bankroll do you invest in a future bet that involves waiting for the regular season to end? Would you say it's a 50/50 bet that they will go undefeated, or would you say the odds are even lower? Sorry so many questions. -)
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So, how much of your bankroll do you invest in a future bet that involves waiting for the regular season to end? Would you say it's a 50/50 bet that they will go undefeated, or would you say the odds are even lower? Sorry so many questions. -)
To expand on this just a bit. The Tide has lost a number of defensive starters from last season , but the greatest risk to success of this prop is this.
If Tua goes down with a season ending injury , and Hurts has transferred . Hurts will graduate in December , so he is eligible to play immediately.
That's more risk than I'm willing to assume.
Good Luck Bud
Correction .
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
To expand on this just a bit. The Tide has lost a number of defensive starters from last season , but the greatest risk to success of this prop is this.
If Tua goes down with a season ending injury , and Hurts has transferred . Hurts will graduate in December , so he is eligible to play immediately.
So, how much of your bankroll do you invest in a future bet that involves waiting for the regular season to end? Would you say it's a 50/50 bet that they will go undefeated, or would you say the odds are even lower? Sorry so many questions. -)
I utilize Kelly as my wagering strategy, so a wager on a single game will for me a lot more than I would risk on a futures bet. I will only wager on matchups that offer me a WP of 67 % or greater. Thus any bet with less WP is not a sound wager for me.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by Volatilis:
So, how much of your bankroll do you invest in a future bet that involves waiting for the regular season to end? Would you say it's a 50/50 bet that they will go undefeated, or would you say the odds are even lower? Sorry so many questions. -)
I utilize Kelly as my wagering strategy, so a wager on a single game will for me a lot more than I would risk on a futures bet. I will only wager on matchups that offer me a WP of 67 % or greater. Thus any bet with less WP is not a sound wager for me.
FWIW , when I won my National Championship wagers in 2016 and 2017 , the books offered a far greater reward for the risk that I assumed. thus I had significant wagers on both.
If you go back to my 2017 NC thread , I describe this in some detail.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
FWIW , when I won my National Championship wagers in 2016 and 2017 , the books offered a far greater reward for the risk that I assumed. thus I had significant wagers on both.
If you go back to my 2017 NC thread , I describe this in some detail.
FWIW , when I won my National Championship wagers in 2016 and 2017 , the books offered a far greater reward for the risk that I assumed. thus I had significant wagers on both.
If you go back to my 2017 NC thread , I describe this in some detail.
If you recall , we discussed this in my 2017 NC thread, where I mentioned about my limiting posts going forward to minimize the amount of information given to Books who populate this site.
It's all about how I calculate my assumed risk in relation to the potential reward that measures wager size.
Hope that helps
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
FWIW , when I won my National Championship wagers in 2016 and 2017 , the books offered a far greater reward for the risk that I assumed. thus I had significant wagers on both.
If you go back to my 2017 NC thread , I describe this in some detail.
If you recall , we discussed this in my 2017 NC thread, where I mentioned about my limiting posts going forward to minimize the amount of information given to Books who populate this site.
It's all about how I calculate my assumed risk in relation to the potential reward that measures wager size.
Most measure their season results by wins and losses , units up .... or down, and that's OK for most. Those methods of measurement are only indicative of " Short Term " results and not necessarily future results. To accurately measure future results , you need a different unit of measure. The one that works for me is to measure my projected MOV vs the actual MOV of any matchup that I choose to wager on . I play 30 - 40 games per season. At seasons end, I will calculate the average MOV differential over all games played to verify my level of accuracy for the season . For the last 7 seasons, I have seen improvement in accuracy EVERY year. This method confirms that I am going in the right direction with my capping method. Many on the Forum will volunteer their assessment of what the line should be , but few monitor their assessment vs the actual result of the matchup. I urge others to be cautious and learn to measure TLV.
You will profit from the effort.
FWIW , In my " Preseason team Analysis and Ratings " thread , I utilized this same method to do a comparative analysis of Connelly's 2016 preseason projections of matchup MOV's vs actual results as well. If you use his work as your capping strategy , I highly recommend that you take the time to check his work using this method BEFORE you put capital at risk.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
Most measure their season results by wins and losses , units up .... or down, and that's OK for most. Those methods of measurement are only indicative of " Short Term " results and not necessarily future results. To accurately measure future results , you need a different unit of measure. The one that works for me is to measure my projected MOV vs the actual MOV of any matchup that I choose to wager on . I play 30 - 40 games per season. At seasons end, I will calculate the average MOV differential over all games played to verify my level of accuracy for the season . For the last 7 seasons, I have seen improvement in accuracy EVERY year. This method confirms that I am going in the right direction with my capping method. Many on the Forum will volunteer their assessment of what the line should be , but few monitor their assessment vs the actual result of the matchup. I urge others to be cautious and learn to measure TLV.
You will profit from the effort.
FWIW , In my " Preseason team Analysis and Ratings " thread , I utilized this same method to do a comparative analysis of Connelly's 2016 preseason projections of matchup MOV's vs actual results as well. If you use his work as your capping strategy , I highly recommend that you take the time to check his work using this method BEFORE you put capital at risk.
So, how much of your bankroll do you invest in a future bet thatinvolves waiting for the regular season to end? Would you say it's a 50/50 bet that they will go undefeated, or would you say the odds are even lower? Sorry so many questions. -)
Looking at my posts , I see I did not actually answer your question.
Let me try it again.
I mentioned risk / reward , so let me expand on that somewhat. The problem with RSW's is that you are generally tying up capital for a whole season , while laying juice for the privilege. Some are OK with that.
For me , I see it differently due to the wagering strategy that I utilize. Since I will not wager on any weekly matchup that does not offer me a WP of 67 % minimum , I have the capability to turn those resources over at least 4X.during the season. For me to tie up capital for a whole season , I would require a minimum of 4 / 1 odds with a WP in excess of the 67 % min. threshold ,to make a play I cannot get that on any RSW prop ,so therefore , I will not bet on RSW's. If you recall ,in my 2017 Nat'l Championship futures ,I had the Tide @ 4 / 1 , and UGa. @ 25 / 1. The Tide @ 4 / 1 was at my minimum last year , and this season they were offered on openers @ + 250 , which was not enough value for me to wager on it. Hope that explains it in a bit more detail.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by Volatilis:
So, how much of your bankroll do you invest in a future bet thatinvolves waiting for the regular season to end? Would you say it's a 50/50 bet that they will go undefeated, or would you say the odds are even lower? Sorry so many questions. -)
Looking at my posts , I see I did not actually answer your question.
Let me try it again.
I mentioned risk / reward , so let me expand on that somewhat. The problem with RSW's is that you are generally tying up capital for a whole season , while laying juice for the privilege. Some are OK with that.
For me , I see it differently due to the wagering strategy that I utilize. Since I will not wager on any weekly matchup that does not offer me a WP of 67 % minimum , I have the capability to turn those resources over at least 4X.during the season. For me to tie up capital for a whole season , I would require a minimum of 4 / 1 odds with a WP in excess of the 67 % min. threshold ,to make a play I cannot get that on any RSW prop ,so therefore , I will not bet on RSW's. If you recall ,in my 2017 Nat'l Championship futures ,I had the Tide @ 4 / 1 , and UGa. @ 25 / 1. The Tide @ 4 / 1 was at my minimum last year , and this season they were offered on openers @ + 250 , which was not enough value for me to wager on it. Hope that explains it in a bit more detail.
Looking at my posts , I see I did not actually answer your question.
Let me try it again.
I mentioned risk / reward , so let me expand on that somewhat. The problem with RSW's is that you are generally tying up capital for a whole season , while laying juice for the privilege. Some are OK with that.
For me , I see it differently due to the wagering strategy that I utilize. Since I will not wager on any weekly matchup that does not offer me a WP of 67 % minimum , I have the capability to turn those resources over at least 4X.during the season. For me to tie up capital for a whole season , I would require a minimum of 4 / 1 odds with a WP in excess of the 67 % min. threshold ,to make a play I cannot get that on any RSW prop ,so therefore , I will not bet on RSW's. If you recall ,in my 2017 Nat'l Championship futures ,I had the Tide @ 4 / 1 , and UGa. @ 25 / 1. The Tide @ 4 / 1 was at my minimum last year , and this season they were offered on openers @ + 250 , which was not enough value for me to wager on it. Hope that explains it in a bit more detail.
With all of that being said, very few futures props meet my criteria .
When I find one that does , I not afraid to bet it.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
Looking at my posts , I see I did not actually answer your question.
Let me try it again.
I mentioned risk / reward , so let me expand on that somewhat. The problem with RSW's is that you are generally tying up capital for a whole season , while laying juice for the privilege. Some are OK with that.
For me , I see it differently due to the wagering strategy that I utilize. Since I will not wager on any weekly matchup that does not offer me a WP of 67 % minimum , I have the capability to turn those resources over at least 4X.during the season. For me to tie up capital for a whole season , I would require a minimum of 4 / 1 odds with a WP in excess of the 67 % min. threshold ,to make a play I cannot get that on any RSW prop ,so therefore , I will not bet on RSW's. If you recall ,in my 2017 Nat'l Championship futures ,I had the Tide @ 4 / 1 , and UGa. @ 25 / 1. The Tide @ 4 / 1 was at my minimum last year , and this season they were offered on openers @ + 250 , which was not enough value for me to wager on it. Hope that explains it in a bit more detail.
With all of that being said, very few futures props meet my criteria .
When I find one that does , I not afraid to bet it.
It pretty much explains it, thanks. I'm impressed that you are able to find a WP of 67% for a National Championship pick. Granted, Alabama is there most every year lately, but still.... And to have the 2 finalists the last 2 years has got to be a good feeling.
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It pretty much explains it, thanks. I'm impressed that you are able to find a WP of 67% for a National Championship pick. Granted, Alabama is there most every year lately, but still.... And to have the 2 finalists the last 2 years has got to be a good feeling.
It pretty much explains it, thanks. I'm impressed that you are able to find a WP of 67% for a National Championship pick. Granted, Alabama is there most every year lately, but still.... And to have the 2 finalists the last 2 years has got to be a good feeling.
My Bama pick for the NC looked good til the Auburn game
I will admit I needed some Ol' fashioned luck to pull that one off.
This also points to the risk involved in tying up capital for a whole season. I actually bought the UGa. play as a hedge , which proved to be a wise move, but injuries at key positions can take out a prop at any time.
Picking the finalists the past 2 seasons has made for a pleasant experience of watching the NC game. If I can get some decent odds , I'll take a swing at it this season as well .
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by Volatilis:
It pretty much explains it, thanks. I'm impressed that you are able to find a WP of 67% for a National Championship pick. Granted, Alabama is there most every year lately, but still.... And to have the 2 finalists the last 2 years has got to be a good feeling.
My Bama pick for the NC looked good til the Auburn game
I will admit I needed some Ol' fashioned luck to pull that one off.
This also points to the risk involved in tying up capital for a whole season. I actually bought the UGa. play as a hedge , which proved to be a wise move, but injuries at key positions can take out a prop at any time.
Picking the finalists the past 2 seasons has made for a pleasant experience of watching the NC game. If I can get some decent odds , I'll take a swing at it this season as well .
My Bama pick for the NC looked good til the Auburn game
I will admit I needed some Ol' fashioned luck to pull that one off.
This also points to the risk involved in tying up capital for a whole season. I actually bought the UGa. play as a hedge , which proved to be a wise move, but injuries at key positions can take out a prop at any time.
Picking the finalists the past 2 seasons has made for a pleasant experience of watching the NC game. If I can get some decent odds , I'll take a swing at it this season as well .
FWIW , I think there could be a surprise or two in teams that make it to the playoffs this season.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
My Bama pick for the NC looked good til the Auburn game
I will admit I needed some Ol' fashioned luck to pull that one off.
This also points to the risk involved in tying up capital for a whole season. I actually bought the UGa. play as a hedge , which proved to be a wise move, but injuries at key positions can take out a prop at any time.
Picking the finalists the past 2 seasons has made for a pleasant experience of watching the NC game. If I can get some decent odds , I'll take a swing at it this season as well .
FWIW , I think there could be a surprise or two in teams that make it to the playoffs this season.
FWIW , I think there could be a surprise or two in teams that make it to the playoffs this season.
If you think there may be a surprise team then I think South Point has a prop for you.
Betting that any team other than the "Power 5",( Bama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, and Washington) to make it to the playoffs pays +310 as of last week. It opened at +400.
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
FWIW , I think there could be a surprise or two in teams that make it to the playoffs this season.
If you think there may be a surprise team then I think South Point has a prop for you.
Betting that any team other than the "Power 5",( Bama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, and Washington) to make it to the playoffs pays +310 as of last week. It opened at +400.
If you think there may be a surprise team then I think South Point has a prop for you.
Betting that any team other than the "Power 5",( Bama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, and Washington) to make it to the playoffs pays +310 as of last week. It opened at +400.
OPPS, not Georgia, but rather Oklahoma.
Bama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Washington)
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Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:
If you think there may be a surprise team then I think South Point has a prop for you.
Betting that any team other than the "Power 5",( Bama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, and Washington) to make it to the playoffs pays +310 as of last week. It opened at +400.
OPPS, not Georgia, but rather Oklahoma.
Bama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Washington)
If you think there may be a surprise team then I think South Point has a prop for you.
Betting that any team other than the "Power 5",( Bama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, and Washington) to make it to the playoffs pays +310 as of last week. It opened at +400.
Interesting possibility Bud. Thanks for this. I'll check it out .
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:
If you think there may be a surprise team then I think South Point has a prop for you.
Betting that any team other than the "Power 5",( Bama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, and Washington) to make it to the playoffs pays +310 as of last week. It opened at +400.
Interesting possibility Bud. Thanks for this. I'll check it out .
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