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WV wins tomorrow

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Posted: #26

Don't overthink this game.

WVU will win tomorrow because the refs will not allow Clemson to taste victory just like tonight's game where the refs had money on Michigan.  

 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by Rockdog:

Don't overthink this game.

WVU will win tomorrow because the refs will not allow Clemson to taste victory just like tonight's game where the refs had money on Michigan.  

What is the vendetta against ACC teams that I am missing here?

 
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Posted: #28
Clemson and under. I am counting on no special teams TDs and defensive scores.  Since playing UNC in October Clemson hasn't had a game go over 60.  WVU won't be able to run with consistency and Clemson should be able to generate some heat on Geno.  I think he'll make a few mistakes.  Clemson should be able to run the ball and control TOP.  And Clemson is in the top 15 in penalties committed per game (4.4), WVU is in the 70's and have committed almost 9 per game their last 3. WVU last 3 games were all under 60 as well and the south Florida game which hit 57 had 3 TDs from defense/ST.   I don't trust either of theses teams but I'll take the ACC over Big east this year.  31-23 Clemson.  Good luck to all, I dont think this has shootout written on it.  Hopefully it's starts dreadfully slow like the ok st game did.  
 
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Posted: #29
Quote from big east ref 

"The biggest difference we've all noticed so far when it comes to how Bill Stewart ran things versus how Dana Holgorsen does it has been sideline discipline. It just feels like total chaos at times. Maybe he's still figuring out the CEO part of the job, but a crazy sideline is usually an indicator of disorganization elsewhere. ... Catch them in one of those stretches and you can gash them. That's why they lost games they shouldn't have and had so many that were close that shouldn't have been."
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by bearcubs07:

Quote from big east ref 

"The biggest difference we've all noticed so far when it comes to how Bill Stewart ran things versus how Dana Holgorsen does it has been sideline discipline. It just feels like total chaos at times. Maybe he's still figuring out the CEO part of the job, but a crazy sideline is usually an indicator of disorganization elsewhere. ... Catch them in one of those stretches and you can gash them. That's why they lost games they shouldn't have and had so many that were close that shouldn't have been."

Now where did you find this?  Because if an official really made a statement like this, he would have been canned immediately.

At least being barred from the Big East conference.  Ridiculous statement.

 
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Posted: #31
Espn big east blog. 
 
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Posted: #32
https://espn.go.com/blog/bigeast/post/_/id/28397/a-different-view-of-the-orange-bowl
 
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Posted: #33
stop trying to figure out how vegas is trying to get you and start working on getting good lines...

by setting the line around 3, vegas is announcing to the world that they dont know who is gonna win this one... 

If you take WVU at +2.5 then Vegas has already got your money because you passed on +3.5 when you were busy "figuring out" how they were trying to trick you... 
 
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Posted: #34
clemson wins
 
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Posted: #35
[Quote: Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen] stop trying to figure out how vegas is trying to get you and start working on getting good lines...

by setting the line around 3, vegas is announcing to the world that they dont know who is gonna win this one... 

If you take WVU at +2.5 then Vegas has already got your money because you passed on +3.5 when you were busy "figuring out" how they were trying to trick you... 

[/Quote

Isn't it amazing?  The most simplistic idea behind the numbers of a point spread is completely ignored by most public gamblers. 

The idea that a human being looks at +2.5 and accepts that because 3.5 is just a difference of one and what is the odds of that coming into play is remarkable.

Human nature...

 
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Posted: #36
I like clemson , in their losses they were manhandled by good running teams, west virginia is not a running team, by an stretch of the imagination, in particular with their best rusher out. Done overthinking this crap and going with the team who i feel has better athletes across the board, and that's clemson here. 
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by DA_BOYS:


Some people are just idiots. You do realize that Clemson is the square pick right? You should learn what square means before making fun of someone else.





bro i seen yur picks yur garbage bud...da boys loser avatar.....loser team for the pass decade...romo da person...
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by DA_BOYS:


Yes.  Look up Reverse Line Movement.  Only about 20% of people are betting WVU.  I think Clemson is the right pick but when this happens I can't bet it anymore.  It makes no sense for Vegas to drop the spread with 80% of wagers coming in on that team.  They know something.


They know nothing !!!!

 
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Posted: #39
No matter who you take in this one, you're puttin money on a bad and stupid team.  These squads are the Adam Dunn's of college football... they either hit a home run or strike out.

I could see either team embarrassing themselves tonight, but one thing's for sure, neither of them will play conservative at any point during this game.  Either team could cover the over all by themselves on a perfect day...

Lotsa mistakes on both sides of the ball equals lotsa points.
 
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Posted: #40
Clemson has a good passing game.  Average running game.  Their o-line got shredded by the gamecocks but looks fine against ACC-level lines, like this one.  Clemson's offense will be in good shape.

Their defense isn't very good at all.  They cannot stop the run and especially cannot stop a running QB.  A few talented players on the line and secondary, but overall a C-.

I don't cap WVU, but in looking over their history, I'd call their offense just a hair under Clemson.  Their defense looks worse than Clemson's.

Neither team should be in a BCS bowl. They should have been playing well before New Year's Eve.  That said, I think Clemson covers this one.
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by For_The_Books:



bro i seen yur picks yur garbage bud...da boys loser avatar.....loser team for the pass decade...romo da person...

Thanks for the input castania brugate.

 
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Posted: #42
In a coin flip ill take the more disciplined team.  My alma is arizona state so I've seen what indisciplined teams and their self destructive ways do.  ACC is 1-5 in bowl games, Big East 2-1.   My deciding factor in this game is that WVU lack of running game will mean lots of short drives which leaves there D on the field longer and they will tire.  One game that stands out to me was the Syracuse game where WVU would consistently get Syracuse to 3rd down and couldn't get off the field (12/17 on 3rd D) .  Clemson has Dwayne Allen, and he's a match up problem and they will exploit that just as Syracuse used Nick Provo. TE's have been issues in coverage for WVU all year. 
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by DA_BOYS:


Yes.  Look up Reverse Line Movement.  Only about 20% of people are betting WVU.  I think Clemson is the right pick but when this happens I can't bet it anymore.  It makes no sense for Vegas to drop the spread with 80% of wagers coming in on that team.  They know something.
 
What they know is that while the majority of betters are on Clemson, more money has come in on WV. So the big bettors are on WV right? Or do you think Vegas actually wagers on teams this way?

 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by bearcubs07:

In a coin flip ill take the more disciplined team.  My alma is arizona state so I've seen what indisciplined teams and their self destructive ways do.  ACC is 1-5 in bowl games, Big East 2-1.   My deciding factor in this game is that WVU lack of running game will mean lots of short drives which leaves there D on the field longer and they will tire.  One game that stands out to me was the Syracuse game where WVU would consistently get Syracuse to 3rd down and couldn't get off the field (12/17 on 3rd D) .  Clemson has Dwayne Allen, and he's a match up problem and they will exploit that just as Syracuse used Nick Provo. TE's have been issues in coverage for WVU all year. 


I like the thought behind this, but still could never confidently bet either team, especially the one that's layin points.  Clemson also hasn't won a road game since October (I don't count the ACC Championship as a road game, since it was in Charlotte).

And thought I would agree that West Virginia's lack of discipline is a good reason to go the other way, Clemson aint that much better in that area, and have been known to just straight-up not show up for games (wasn't it the NC State game where Clemson coulda taken over #1 in the ACC and ended up giving up the first 20 points of the game or somethin?).

Anyway, I'm still harpin on the over here and I'm a little surprised not many others feel the same way about it...
 
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Posted: #45
GoBrowns mentioned this in a different thread...


When analyzing public bet % all of the sites I've ever heard take into account the total NUMBER of bets made on a particular side...NOT the total AMOUNT wagered on a particular side....

In other words, 80 bettors placing $100 bets on clemson = 8,000 on clemson

20 Bettors placing $1000 on west virginia =20,0000 on west virginia


IF I was a linesmaker I would move the line down to -2.5 too!


Now you can argue, the west virginia bettors are the sharps....maybe, or maybe not
 
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Posted: #46
When I talk about discipline I speaking more in terms of penalties.  I'll also point to special teams for another area of advantage.  WVU Is ranked 89 in STE and 86 FPA.  Clemson is 39 and 41.  Translation is Clemson will have better field position all game long and their special teams units are better top to bottom.  For those who don't know STE is special teams efficiency and FPA is field position advantage.  All the other stats I looked at they were pretty close (within 10 rankings) except clemsons defense was marginally better in defensive efficiency. 

But games are played between the lines not on paper.  Accordingy gorilla math bowl games are slightly in favor of favorites at 16-13-1 and with totals  are 15-15 so whoever suggests Vegas doesn't know what they are doing is incorrect. 
 
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Posted: #47
And as far as public money and all that, so far consensus picks of 60% or greater are 10-9-1.  
 
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Posted: #48
In 4 of those instances where favorite was consensus, dog won outright.  Almost 50% so if your gonna back a dog against the public may as well go ML. 
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by DA_BOYS:


Yes.  Look up Reverse Line Movement.  Only about 20% of people are betting WVU.  I think Clemson is the right pick but when this happens I can't bet it anymore.  It makes no sense for Vegas to drop the spread with 80% of wagers coming in on that team.  They know something.


 

Hypothetical.....

 

100 people are betting total. 

20 sharps bet 1,000 each on WVU for $20,000

80 squares bet 200 each on Clemson $16,000

 

80% (of wagers) still on Clemson but they still need to even the money out.  That is why you could see line movement.  Don't read into that much.  They (sportsbooks) just want the money to be even.  When you say 80% is on Clemson and the line moves (in their favor), so what.  You have no idea the amount that is being bet on each side.  Not saying that WVU won't cover but if you base all your handicapping on this you will lose in the long run.

 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by scotty0129:

 

Hypothetical.....

 

100 people are betting total. 

20 sharps bet 1,000 each on WVU for $20,000

80 squares bet 200 each on Clemson $16,000

 

80% (of wagers) still on Clemson but they still need to even the money out.  That is why you could see line movement.  Don't read into that much.  They (sportsbooks) just want the money to be even.  When you say 80% is on Clemson and the line moves (in their favor), so what.  You have no idea the amount that is being bet on each side.  Not saying that WVU won't cover but if you base all your handicapping on this you will lose in the long run.


That's why I said I was staying away from betting a side in this game.  I did not say I was taking WVU because of the RLM.

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