I'm leaning heavily on WYO here...NFL caliber QB and 8 returners on DEFENSE....IOWA lost starting QB and a few WRs......biggest loss for WYO was their standout RB hill. IOWA struggles ATS in openers recently...line currently sits at +13 @ BO....any reason I should wait to catch 14+, or will this line just plummet down from here? - Any and all responders welcome!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I'm leaning heavily on WYO here...NFL caliber QB and 8 returners on DEFENSE....IOWA lost starting QB and a few WRs......biggest loss for WYO was their standout RB hill. IOWA struggles ATS in openers recently...line currently sits at +13 @ BO....any reason I should wait to catch 14+, or will this line just plummet down from here? - Any and all responders welcome!
No play for me at +13. But I havent bought into the hype train for Josh Allen yet. Very talented? Yes. But seems to force things and rely on his talent too much at times which will be deadly vs good defenses, and IOWA will have a very good defense.
IOWA offense will not be anything special but should have one of the best run blocking Olines in the big ten with an explosive running back to control the clock. Wyoming had a bad run defense last year and lost their nose tackle and 2 LBs. Iowa Oline averages about 304lbs Wyoming DL averages about 265lbs.
Close game going into 4th, can see Iowa wearing the cowboys down on the ground and covering with late TD.
I will be looking very hard at the UNDER when its posted as well as 1H under. Iowa offense will be slow out of the gates with new OC with no play calling experience and minimal experience at WR = even more conservative than they normally are, if thats possible.
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No play for me at +13. But I havent bought into the hype train for Josh Allen yet. Very talented? Yes. But seems to force things and rely on his talent too much at times which will be deadly vs good defenses, and IOWA will have a very good defense.
IOWA offense will not be anything special but should have one of the best run blocking Olines in the big ten with an explosive running back to control the clock. Wyoming had a bad run defense last year and lost their nose tackle and 2 LBs. Iowa Oline averages about 304lbs Wyoming DL averages about 265lbs.
Close game going into 4th, can see Iowa wearing the cowboys down on the ground and covering with late TD.
I will be looking very hard at the UNDER when its posted as well as 1H under. Iowa offense will be slow out of the gates with new OC with no play calling experience and minimal experience at WR = even more conservative than they normally are, if thats possible.
Yeah, Iowa just too much of a tough team to bet against here.....They should be able to run the ball at will.
RB Akrum Wadley AVG over 6 YPC last season and has an even more improved OL to run behind this season....
The defense has 8 returning and will be strong once again.....Remember Iowa beat Michigan and Nebraska at the end of last season holding them to a combined 23 points...
If Iowa gets any kind of production from their SO. QB this could be a blowout.
I like Wyoming in the MW CONF to be a good team...I think their "D" will be very strong and they may contend with SDST and Boise ST.
Wyoming lost to Nebraska 52 -17 last season and I just don't like them @ Iowa to begin the season
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Yeah, Iowa just too much of a tough team to bet against here.....They should be able to run the ball at will.
RB Akrum Wadley AVG over 6 YPC last season and has an even more improved OL to run behind this season....
The defense has 8 returning and will be strong once again.....Remember Iowa beat Michigan and Nebraska at the end of last season holding them to a combined 23 points...
If Iowa gets any kind of production from their SO. QB this could be a blowout.
I like Wyoming in the MW CONF to be a good team...I think their "D" will be very strong and they may contend with SDST and Boise ST.
Wyoming lost to Nebraska 52 -17 last season and I just don't like them @ Iowa to begin the season
Yeah, Iowa just too much of a tough team to bet against here.....They should be able to run the ball at will.
RB Akrum Wadley AVG over 6 YPC last season and has an even more improved OL to run behind this season....
The defense has 8 returning and will be strong once again.....Remember Iowa beat Michigan and Nebraska at the end of last season holding them to a combined 23 points...
If Iowa gets any kind of production from their SO. QB this could be a blowout.
I like Wyoming in the MW CONF to be a good team...I think their "D" will be very strong and they may contend with SDST and Boise ST.
Wyoming lost to Nebraska 52 -17 last season and I just don't like them @ Iowa to begin the season
did you watch that wyoming vs nebraska game? guessing no.
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Quote Originally Posted by MikeMed:
Yeah, Iowa just too much of a tough team to bet against here.....They should be able to run the ball at will.
RB Akrum Wadley AVG over 6 YPC last season and has an even more improved OL to run behind this season....
The defense has 8 returning and will be strong once again.....Remember Iowa beat Michigan and Nebraska at the end of last season holding them to a combined 23 points...
If Iowa gets any kind of production from their SO. QB this could be a blowout.
I like Wyoming in the MW CONF to be a good team...I think their "D" will be very strong and they may contend with SDST and Boise ST.
Wyoming lost to Nebraska 52 -17 last season and I just don't like them @ Iowa to begin the season
did you watch that wyoming vs nebraska game? guessing no.
Yea...not sure last year's game vs Neb is a great measuring stick...wyoming was coming off a triple OT game vs NIU that started 2 hours late and ended in the wee hours Sunday am....then they have to travel and play in Lincoln where they have 6 TOs.......IOWA has their arch rival on deck and ferentz has not been good ATS as a fav in home openers...if it climbs over 14 I'll take a shot on it
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Yea...not sure last year's game vs Neb is a great measuring stick...wyoming was coming off a triple OT game vs NIU that started 2 hours late and ended in the wee hours Sunday am....then they have to travel and play in Lincoln where they have 6 TOs.......IOWA has their arch rival on deck and ferentz has not been good ATS as a fav in home openers...if it climbs over 14 I'll take a shot on it
big hawkeye fan here, its true we got a lot of our D returning but only one returning secondary starter.Josh Allen seems like the type of guy to exploit that and if ferentz gets too conservative with the run game, then the hawks offense could get very predictable and will have to win through the air which will be hard with a lot of inexperienced WRs and a QB
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big hawkeye fan here, its true we got a lot of our D returning but only one returning secondary starter.Josh Allen seems like the type of guy to exploit that and if ferentz gets too conservative with the run game, then the hawks offense could get very predictable and will have to win through the air which will be hard with a lot of inexperienced WRs and a QB
big hawkeye fan here, its true we got a lot of our D returning but only one returning secondary starter.Josh Allen seems like the type of guy to exploit that and if ferentz gets too conservative with the run game, then the hawks offense could get very predictable and will have to win through the air which will be hard with a lot of inexperienced WRs and a QB
btw I dont bet on or against the hawks but Wyoming +13 seems like a good bet
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Quote Originally Posted by ljslavens11:
big hawkeye fan here, its true we got a lot of our D returning but only one returning secondary starter.Josh Allen seems like the type of guy to exploit that and if ferentz gets too conservative with the run game, then the hawks offense could get very predictable and will have to win through the air which will be hard with a lot of inexperienced WRs and a QB
btw I dont bet on or against the hawks but Wyoming +13 seems like a good bet
I'm guessing you did not watch the game either, considering it was a seven point game at the start of the fourth quarter
Just went over the game........Nebraska led 17-0 then had a hard time converting YDS into points.......They had the ball to start the 4th QTR went down the field took a 14 pt lead then Wyoming fell apart completely............If you throw 5 picks and give up 550 YDS you will get blown out every time.....Just so happens 28 of their 52 points were scored in the 4th QTR.
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Quote Originally Posted by steponaduck:
I'm guessing you did not watch the game either, considering it was a seven point game at the start of the fourth quarter
Just went over the game........Nebraska led 17-0 then had a hard time converting YDS into points.......They had the ball to start the 4th QTR went down the field took a 14 pt lead then Wyoming fell apart completely............If you throw 5 picks and give up 550 YDS you will get blown out every time.....Just so happens 28 of their 52 points were scored in the 4th QTR.
Reason to play this one?.......as usual not discussed
FERENTZ DOES NOT CARE ABOUT THESE EARLY NON-CONFERENCE GAMES
* covered 1/9......MISSING the cover by an average of 7 points/g
So.....1st look is to Wyoming
* nice spot for THEM?.....do they play tough on the road?....play run well?.....tough game on deck?
Looking deeper into Wyoming LY....
*QB / team plays well at home....weaker .> BAD on the road (7-0 ATS home / 3-4 away)
QB 57% / 20TD - 5 INT / 161 PR at home
* but 55% / 8-10 / 128 PR on road
$$ vs actual tough D's?......52%......11 TD / 11 INT
NOTE: this was WITH Hill / Wick....2214 yds.....and top 3 WR's (143 catches / 2455 yds)
Wyoming had one of nation's worst D's LY.....
*#119 at 6.6/play.....453 /g..............on road 7.1/play....524/g
only allowed 690 to NM......500 to EMich.....653 to mighty UNLV
*** terrible vs the run.....5.3/204......BUT not too bad early in the year
*they do have a new DC and get 8 starters back
SO......looks risky....but it would be a shocker if Iowa blows them out here.....as Ferentz will ONLY want to come away with a boring / clean WIN.....incredibly vanilla game plan >> SMART
UNDER (total maybe inflated due to LY Wyo D / strong O)....maybe a great idea.......small play on Wyo not bad .....I might tease Wyo with the under ?..............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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Reason to play this one?.......as usual not discussed
FERENTZ DOES NOT CARE ABOUT THESE EARLY NON-CONFERENCE GAMES
* covered 1/9......MISSING the cover by an average of 7 points/g
So.....1st look is to Wyoming
* nice spot for THEM?.....do they play tough on the road?....play run well?.....tough game on deck?
Looking deeper into Wyoming LY....
*QB / team plays well at home....weaker .> BAD on the road (7-0 ATS home / 3-4 away)
QB 57% / 20TD - 5 INT / 161 PR at home
* but 55% / 8-10 / 128 PR on road
$$ vs actual tough D's?......52%......11 TD / 11 INT
NOTE: this was WITH Hill / Wick....2214 yds.....and top 3 WR's (143 catches / 2455 yds)
Wyoming had one of nation's worst D's LY.....
*#119 at 6.6/play.....453 /g..............on road 7.1/play....524/g
only allowed 690 to NM......500 to EMich.....653 to mighty UNLV
*** terrible vs the run.....5.3/204......BUT not too bad early in the year
*they do have a new DC and get 8 starters back
SO......looks risky....but it would be a shocker if Iowa blows them out here.....as Ferentz will ONLY want to come away with a boring / clean WIN.....incredibly vanilla game plan >> SMART
UNDER (total maybe inflated due to LY Wyo D / strong O)....maybe a great idea.......small play on Wyo not bad .....I might tease Wyo with the under ?..............
Especially in these early games....AX yourself what is the mindset of each coach?...................
Here's whats great..............everybody (ignorantly) thinks all games are the same.......SURE some coaches prepare EACH week (pretty much) the same.....but many do not.....great ones never
HERE.....Ferentz has great job security.....has no desire to impress the fans/polls with a huge victory.....AND.... has a CLEAR history of treating these games as SCRIMMAGES ..essentially preparing his team for Big10 play..
BUT.....how about Bohl......after a terrible start.....won only 6 of 1st 24 games.....finally have some MO going.....is THIS game important for his program?.......why helll yeah it's HUGE
*only Gardiner-Webb on deck
SO.......technically 12 or so is correct.....but based on (above)
this one should be less than 10 IMO .....I would start at 10.....9' about right...............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
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Anybody wanna make this stuff easier?
Especially in these early games....AX yourself what is the mindset of each coach?...................
Here's whats great..............everybody (ignorantly) thinks all games are the same.......SURE some coaches prepare EACH week (pretty much) the same.....but many do not.....great ones never
HERE.....Ferentz has great job security.....has no desire to impress the fans/polls with a huge victory.....AND.... has a CLEAR history of treating these games as SCRIMMAGES ..essentially preparing his team for Big10 play..
BUT.....how about Bohl......after a terrible start.....won only 6 of 1st 24 games.....finally have some MO going.....is THIS game important for his program?.......why helll yeah it's HUGE
*only Gardiner-Webb on deck
SO.......technically 12 or so is correct.....but based on (above)
this one should be less than 10 IMO .....I would start at 10.....9' about right...............
might be looking at WY team total under...haven't seen total however with Iowa at 44 and WY at 70....maybe around 56-57...which would put team total around 21.5 or 22...if so tough to see them breaking down Hawkeye defense for 23+
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might be looking at WY team total under...haven't seen total however with Iowa at 44 and WY at 70....maybe around 56-57...which would put team total around 21.5 or 22...if so tough to see them breaking down Hawkeye defense for 23+
Wyoming playing at home has huge advantage playing at 7000'. Visitors gasping for air.
On the road that advantage is gone.
Iowa has Iowa St on deck, rivalry game. Iowa 1-6 ATS game before Iowa St. last 7 yrs.
I would lean for the +13, do not see it getting higher, maybe drop to 12 eventually. (Connelly has it at 10.8)
For me, because Wyoming has an outstanding QB that, without him everything changes, would make me wait closer to game time to place my bet. A lot can happen in two months. Maybe too cautious but that is how I approach it.
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Wyoming playing at home has huge advantage playing at 7000'. Visitors gasping for air.
On the road that advantage is gone.
Iowa has Iowa St on deck, rivalry game. Iowa 1-6 ATS game before Iowa St. last 7 yrs.
I would lean for the +13, do not see it getting higher, maybe drop to 12 eventually. (Connelly has it at 10.8)
For me, because Wyoming has an outstanding QB that, without him everything changes, would make me wait closer to game time to place my bet. A lot can happen in two months. Maybe too cautious but that is how I approach it.
Allen does not have the pedigree of a typical 1st Round NFL QB (2-star recruit, per Scout.com), and after reviewing his game by game LY it is is clear he benefited from the presence and threat of RB Hill behind him
Allen will not have that benefit this year
That said, I believe in Bohl as a HC and have been rooting for him ever since he scored the Wyoming job...I truly enjoyed betting and winning with Wyoming LY
This year's Iowa team loses just one starter from an offensive line lined with 3 and 4 star recruits-- a unit that won the Joe Moore award for top OL in the country LY
Behind this OL is a proven, 1000-yard rusher in Wadley
Wyoming does not start a player on defense that Iowa would so much as offer a scholarship to
In a Bowl setting on a neutral field out West, Bohl could make this interesting with 13 points to work with
As it is, in Iowa City, I have this game capped at Iowa -18 and will sleep soundly after placing my bet on Iowa
...my counsel, however, is to wait for the Allen hype train to drive this number to -10 on game week, and then strike
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Allen does not have the pedigree of a typical 1st Round NFL QB (2-star recruit, per Scout.com), and after reviewing his game by game LY it is is clear he benefited from the presence and threat of RB Hill behind him
Allen will not have that benefit this year
That said, I believe in Bohl as a HC and have been rooting for him ever since he scored the Wyoming job...I truly enjoyed betting and winning with Wyoming LY
This year's Iowa team loses just one starter from an offensive line lined with 3 and 4 star recruits-- a unit that won the Joe Moore award for top OL in the country LY
Behind this OL is a proven, 1000-yard rusher in Wadley
Wyoming does not start a player on defense that Iowa would so much as offer a scholarship to
In a Bowl setting on a neutral field out West, Bohl could make this interesting with 13 points to work with
As it is, in Iowa City, I have this game capped at Iowa -18 and will sleep soundly after placing my bet on Iowa
...my counsel, however, is to wait for the Allen hype train to drive this number to -10 on game week, and then strike
IOWA currently 1 - 7 ATS in the last 8 openers...it is clear Ferentz doesn't give a shart about blowouts in these opening games, as BA has most astutely pointed out...that being said, I completely agree with the angle about Hawks offensive line being clearly more physical at the point of attack.
But I also see they project to be starting soph Nathan Stanley at QB (9 career passing attempts)
I just don't see them being able to extend the lead.
Good points by all...will continue to break this one down.
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IOWA currently 1 - 7 ATS in the last 8 openers...it is clear Ferentz doesn't give a shart about blowouts in these opening games, as BA has most astutely pointed out...that being said, I completely agree with the angle about Hawks offensive line being clearly more physical at the point of attack.
But I also see they project to be starting soph Nathan Stanley at QB (9 career passing attempts)
I just don't see them being able to extend the lead.
Good points by all...will continue to break this one down.
Reason to play this one?.......as usual not discussed
FERENTZ DOES NOT CARE ABOUT THESE EARLY NON-CONFERENCE GAMES
* covered 1/9......MISSING the cover by an average of 7 points/g
So.....1st look is to Wyoming
* nice spot for THEM?.....do they play tough on the road?....play run well?.....tough game on deck?
Looking deeper into Wyoming LY....
*QB / team plays well at home....weaker .> BAD on the road (7-0 ATS home / 3-4 away)
QB 57% / 20TD - 5 INT / 161 PR at home
* but 55% / 8-10 / 128 PR on road
$$ vs actual tough D's?......52%......11 TD / 11 INT
NOTE: this was WITH Hill / Wick....2214 yds.....and top 3 WR's (143 catches / 2455 yds)
Wyoming had one of nation's worst D's LY.....
*#119 at 6.6/play.....453 /g..............on road 7.1/play....524/g
only allowed 690 to NM......500 to EMich.....653 to mighty UNLV
*** terrible vs the run.....5.3/204......BUT not too bad early in the year
*they do have a new DC and get 8 starters back
SO......looks risky....but it would be a shocker if Iowa blows them out here.....as Ferentz will ONLY want to come away with a boring / clean WIN.....incredibly vanilla game plan >> SMART
UNDER (total maybe inflated due to LY Wyo D / strong O)....maybe a great idea.......small play on Wyo not bad .....I might tease Wyo with the under ?..............
This is exactly what I'd be afraid of taking Iowa: Vanilla game plan as noted and then Allen burns them for a late score to backdoor them. They did the same thing against BYU in the bowl game +8 backdoorimg them late.
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Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
Reason to play this one?.......as usual not discussed
FERENTZ DOES NOT CARE ABOUT THESE EARLY NON-CONFERENCE GAMES
* covered 1/9......MISSING the cover by an average of 7 points/g
So.....1st look is to Wyoming
* nice spot for THEM?.....do they play tough on the road?....play run well?.....tough game on deck?
Looking deeper into Wyoming LY....
*QB / team plays well at home....weaker .> BAD on the road (7-0 ATS home / 3-4 away)
QB 57% / 20TD - 5 INT / 161 PR at home
* but 55% / 8-10 / 128 PR on road
$$ vs actual tough D's?......52%......11 TD / 11 INT
NOTE: this was WITH Hill / Wick....2214 yds.....and top 3 WR's (143 catches / 2455 yds)
Wyoming had one of nation's worst D's LY.....
*#119 at 6.6/play.....453 /g..............on road 7.1/play....524/g
only allowed 690 to NM......500 to EMich.....653 to mighty UNLV
*** terrible vs the run.....5.3/204......BUT not too bad early in the year
*they do have a new DC and get 8 starters back
SO......looks risky....but it would be a shocker if Iowa blows them out here.....as Ferentz will ONLY want to come away with a boring / clean WIN.....incredibly vanilla game plan >> SMART
UNDER (total maybe inflated due to LY Wyo D / strong O)....maybe a great idea.......small play on Wyo not bad .....I might tease Wyo with the under ?..............
This is exactly what I'd be afraid of taking Iowa: Vanilla game plan as noted and then Allen burns them for a late score to backdoor them. They did the same thing against BYU in the bowl game +8 backdoorimg them late.
The more I looked at this one the more Im pulling away from Iowa.
They just seem to play up to the competition level on too many occasions.....How can they get outgained by Miami of Ohio (in a win) and outgain Michigan in the same season.....Just seems too risky to play them in this spot.......I also believe this line will hit 14 at some point.
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The more I looked at this one the more Im pulling away from Iowa.
They just seem to play up to the competition level on too many occasions.....How can they get outgained by Miami of Ohio (in a win) and outgain Michigan in the same season.....Just seems too risky to play them in this spot.......I also believe this line will hit 14 at some point.
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forgot about that
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