Much more comfortable with this weeks card, may be the biggest of the year so far. Got a few I like early... still sticking with standard amounts.
San Diego State -6 $200 This dream matchup never came to fruition in the Mountain West Championship game the past few seasons but we get to see the teams finally play here even though Boise has lost some of their luster. We know what we're getting with the Aztecs... ball control, running, defense and a few head-scratching penalties but I've become accustomed to that over the past few seasons with them. On the other side Boise has struggled all year. They have not found a replacement for Jeremy McNichol's production and cannot decide on a QB between Rypien and Cozart. A few deeper stats I dug up... Boise is 101st in sacks allowed, SDSU 21st in team sacks. Red Zone offense Boise 88th, Red Zone defense SDSU 37th. This is a game San Diego State has been waiting to play for a long time... When people think of the Mountain West, Boise State is probably the first team to come to mind and the Aztecs want to change that.
Houston -13.5 $200 I'm only giving the Cougars a temporary membership back into my circle of trust, and it's mostly based on their opponent this week. Tulsa just faced a brutal stretch of playing 3 straight weeks against teams that use a form of the triple option. They faced 197 carries and allowed 1247 yards for 6.3 yards/carry. Each game got gradually worse as far as yards allowed. They also gave up 54 points to Toledo before this stretch started. Now Houston comes in with a few banged up players in the passing game which will put more emphasis on a running game that just put up a season best 40 carries for 265 yards against SMU last week. Also getting Kyle Postma here instead of Kyle Allen. Postma is a threat in the running game as well. I haven't even mentioned Houston's defense and Ed Oliver who will face a Tulsa offense that has struggled with consistency all season.
Thoughts... I love Navy but missed out on the good numbers early in the week. Will be fine with +3 but gonna see what it does tomorrow. Thinking Badgers get over 30 themselves, wondering how much Purdue will give me. Tulane should be an auto-play right now. Charlotte will be a play, WKU still getting point spread love based on name only. Think A&M wins straight up.
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD: 16-4 +$2160
Week 1: 1-0 +$200
Week 2: 5-0 +$750
Week 3: 3-1 +$380
Week 4: 4-1 +$480
Week 5: 3-0 +$705
Week 6: 0-2 -$400
Much more comfortable with this weeks card, may be the biggest of the year so far. Got a few I like early... still sticking with standard amounts.
San Diego State -6 $200 This dream matchup never came to fruition in the Mountain West Championship game the past few seasons but we get to see the teams finally play here even though Boise has lost some of their luster. We know what we're getting with the Aztecs... ball control, running, defense and a few head-scratching penalties but I've become accustomed to that over the past few seasons with them. On the other side Boise has struggled all year. They have not found a replacement for Jeremy McNichol's production and cannot decide on a QB between Rypien and Cozart. A few deeper stats I dug up... Boise is 101st in sacks allowed, SDSU 21st in team sacks. Red Zone offense Boise 88th, Red Zone defense SDSU 37th. This is a game San Diego State has been waiting to play for a long time... When people think of the Mountain West, Boise State is probably the first team to come to mind and the Aztecs want to change that.
Houston -13.5 $200 I'm only giving the Cougars a temporary membership back into my circle of trust, and it's mostly based on their opponent this week. Tulsa just faced a brutal stretch of playing 3 straight weeks against teams that use a form of the triple option. They faced 197 carries and allowed 1247 yards for 6.3 yards/carry. Each game got gradually worse as far as yards allowed. They also gave up 54 points to Toledo before this stretch started. Now Houston comes in with a few banged up players in the passing game which will put more emphasis on a running game that just put up a season best 40 carries for 265 yards against SMU last week. Also getting Kyle Postma here instead of Kyle Allen. Postma is a threat in the running game as well. I haven't even mentioned Houston's defense and Ed Oliver who will face a Tulsa offense that has struggled with consistency all season.
Thoughts... I love Navy but missed out on the good numbers early in the week. Will be fine with +3 but gonna see what it does tomorrow. Thinking Badgers get over 30 themselves, wondering how much Purdue will give me. Tulane should be an auto-play right now. Charlotte will be a play, WKU still getting point spread love based on name only. Think A&M wins straight up.
I just grabbed the -6 too, another player at Bookmaker I assume.
Use scoresandodds through my local. I have a smaller online site, but their full game numbers are usually higher. Online set is better for 2H plays though, always seem .5 cheaper.
0
Quote Originally Posted by motowner:
I just grabbed the -6 too, another player at Bookmaker I assume.
Use scoresandodds through my local. I have a smaller online site, but their full game numbers are usually higher. Online set is better for 2H plays though, always seem .5 cheaper.
I too like Texas A&M straight up in Gainesville Sat night. Only thing that is holding me back is Gainesville on Sat night.
Like the Wisky over.
Also, like the over in the CINN@SFLA game. I got it at 67. Thoughts?
As always, appreciate your write-ups and advice.
Cheers,
Not worried about Gainesville... how much of a factor could it be after the loss last week? Biggest factor I was looking at was the status of Kadarius Toney and I see is he now downgraded to Doubtful. Once I have confirmation that he is out I will make the play. He's the only guy on the UF offense that scares me
0
Quote Originally Posted by Jimkellybeer:
I too like Texas A&M straight up in Gainesville Sat night. Only thing that is holding me back is Gainesville on Sat night.
Like the Wisky over.
Also, like the over in the CINN@SFLA game. I got it at 67. Thoughts?
As always, appreciate your write-ups and advice.
Cheers,
Not worried about Gainesville... how much of a factor could it be after the loss last week? Biggest factor I was looking at was the status of Kadarius Toney and I see is he now downgraded to Doubtful. Once I have confirmation that he is out I will make the play. He's the only guy on the UF offense that scares me
mr bw i know u is great at what u do but i just wanted to know one thing..if 70% of the $ is on sdst and the line came out at 71/2 and have dropped to 6 why would it do that? if anything i expect it to go up not down. but im going to keep and eye on it. i was just curious. for example last weekend when i followed you on the ull over . i notice all the $ was on the over but it had dropped like 4-5 points and we seen what happened and same thing lastnite ull came out at 60 and dropped to 55 and all the $ was on the over samething happened. but i was on it lastnite. im trying not to overthink these games but i was just curious.
0
mr bw i know u is great at what u do but i just wanted to know one thing..if 70% of the $ is on sdst and the line came out at 71/2 and have dropped to 6 why would it do that? if anything i expect it to go up not down. but im going to keep and eye on it. i was just curious. for example last weekend when i followed you on the ull over . i notice all the $ was on the over but it had dropped like 4-5 points and we seen what happened and same thing lastnite ull came out at 60 and dropped to 55 and all the $ was on the over samething happened. but i was on it lastnite. im trying not to overthink these games but i was just curious.
Man, are you ever right about Western Kentucky getting inflated numbers based on their name.
Last week they beat that ever present powerhouse of an offense UTEP 15-14. They were 18 point favorites!
Now, their 16 point favs against Charlotte. What can you tell me about Charlotte BWS?
Thanks for your threads.....always a great read.
I can tell you Charlotte is not good and offensively challenged. They have scored 7 or less in 4 of their 5 games against FBS teams. I hate betting on bad teams but WKU has no business being favored by this much. This is also their homecoming game... last week we saw a few teams get distracted by this.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:
Man, are you ever right about Western Kentucky getting inflated numbers based on their name.
Last week they beat that ever present powerhouse of an offense UTEP 15-14. They were 18 point favorites!
Now, their 16 point favs against Charlotte. What can you tell me about Charlotte BWS?
Thanks for your threads.....always a great read.
I can tell you Charlotte is not good and offensively challenged. They have scored 7 or less in 4 of their 5 games against FBS teams. I hate betting on bad teams but WKU has no business being favored by this much. This is also their homecoming game... last week we saw a few teams get distracted by this.
Navy +3.5 $200 You know what you're getting with Navy... #1 rushing offense (414 yards/game), discipline (4th least penalized team), ball control (2nd in TOP, 35 minutes/game) and a pair of wins over Memphis the last 2 seasons. Now, Memphis is going to score, Anthony Miller will have a big day. Navy will have some quick scoring drives but will need a few long ones to keep the Memphis offense off the field. 70 carries is the magic number for Navy here. If they get that, they should not only cover but win outright. Memphis will also hurt themselves. They are 110th in penalties/game with 8.8. They have also had some highly questionable coaching decisions that have backfired (remember the fake FG against UCLA?). Coaching and scheme edge to the Midshipmen, add it all up and Navy will continue their dominance over the Tigers.
0
Add:
Navy +3.5 $200 You know what you're getting with Navy... #1 rushing offense (414 yards/game), discipline (4th least penalized team), ball control (2nd in TOP, 35 minutes/game) and a pair of wins over Memphis the last 2 seasons. Now, Memphis is going to score, Anthony Miller will have a big day. Navy will have some quick scoring drives but will need a few long ones to keep the Memphis offense off the field. 70 carries is the magic number for Navy here. If they get that, they should not only cover but win outright. Memphis will also hurt themselves. They are 110th in penalties/game with 8.8. They have also had some highly questionable coaching decisions that have backfired (remember the fake FG against UCLA?). Coaching and scheme edge to the Midshipmen, add it all up and Navy will continue their dominance over the Tigers.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.