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You are looking live!!!!! 2018 Week 5 Plays

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Posted: #26

peace_5 bol this week

 
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Good luck this weekend, bws. Keep killin it
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
 
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Much respect for your style, betting control and record an_popcorn

 
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Nice start.....peace_5

 
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[Quote: Originally Posted by BWS77] Add:

Florida Atlantic/Middle Tennessee State Over 60.5  $300   A little larger than normal wager for a total, but I really like it.  To say both teams struggle on defense is an understatement.  The Red Zone defense numbers for both are awful.  In 24 combined opponents trips into the red zone, 23 have ended with a touchdown.   3rd down conversion % on defense is brutal also.  MTSU ranks 128th allowing 57% success rate.   FAU is 'slightly' better at 49% which ranks 123rd.  Both of those stats say the offenses will be able to move at will.  Also on the bright side, FAU RB Devin Singletary finally got into gear last week against UCF with 131 yards and 3 TD's.  The last time these 2 met in Murfreesboro, they combined for 133 points in 2016.   


Still a few I'm kicking around...  Stanford is one.  Should have played Nevada earlier in week, now sitting around the +4 mark, not sure I'll do that.  All of these games start at 6pm or later so I'll be looking at some TT's and 2H's on the early slate for sure.   
[/Quote] Appreciate your sharing technique on this TOTAL handicap,  excellent write-up, attached to informative stats..good job...I'm on this play...


FAU vs MTSU  OVER 60 @-110  4.4u

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Be the Hammer Not the Nail
 
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Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Appreciate your sharing technique on this TOTAL handicap,  excellent write-up, attached to informative stats..good job...I'm on this play...


FAU vs MTSU  OVER 60 @-110  4.4u

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Florida Atlantic/Middle Tennessee State Over 60.5  $300   A little larger than normal wager for a total, but I really like it.  To say both teams struggle on defense is an understatement.  The Red Zone defense numbers for both are awful.  In 24 combined opponents trips into the red zone, 23 have ended with a touchdown.   3rd down conversion % on defense is brutal also.  MTSU ranks 128th allowing 57% success rate.   FAU is 'slightly' better at 49% which ranks 123rd.  Both of those stats say the offenses will be able to move at will.  Also on the bright side, FAU RB Devin Singletary finally got into gear last week against UCF with 131 yards and 3 TD's.  The last time these 2 met in Murfreesboro, they combined for 133 points in 2016.  

What confuses me a little about this game is that it opened Off-Shore at 67 or 67.5 and Vegas 67.5 or 68 and pretty quickly goes down to 61.5 or 62.  I could really see it opening at 61 or 62 and going up to 67 or 68 based a lot of what you have mentioned above.  I don't want to over think this, but it sure seems like some big money jumped on Under pretty early.  Did you notice this and have any thoughts?  Another very well respected handicapper I know not from Covers has OVER as his top play of the day.

BOL!


 
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BOL!!


 
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Quote Originally Posted by In2it:

Florida Atlantic/Middle Tennessee State Over 60.5  $300   A little larger than normal wager for a total, but I really like it.  To say both teams struggle on defense is an understatement.  The Red Zone defense numbers for both are awful.  In 24 combined opponents trips into the red zone, 23 have ended with a touchdown.   3rd down conversion % on defense is brutal also.  MTSU ranks 128th allowing 57% success rate.   FAU is 'slightly' better at 49% which ranks 123rd.  Both of those stats say the offenses will be able to move at will.  Also on the bright side, FAU RB Devin Singletary finally got into gear last week against UCF with 131 yards and 3 TD's.  The last time these 2 met in Murfreesboro, they combined for 133 points in 2016.  

What confuses me a little about this game is that it opened Off-Shore at 67 or 67.5 and Vegas 67.5 or 68 and pretty quickly goes down to 61.5 or 62.  I could really see it opening at 61 or 62 and going up to 67 or 68 based a lot of what you have mentioned above.  I don't want to over think this, but it sure seems like some big money jumped on Under pretty early.  Did you notice this and have any thoughts?  Another very well respected handicapper I know not from Covers has OVER as his top play of the day.

BOL!



I saw that also... didn't really bother me.  My guess is it was due to both teams underachieving so far.  MTSU has scored 7 twice (both road games against Vandy and Georgia).  FAU's QB Robison has been less efficient than Driskell was last year.  
 
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Bol

 

 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:


I saw that also... didn't really bother me.  My guess is it was due to both teams underachieving so far.  MTSU has scored 7 twice (both road games against Vandy and Georgia).  FAU's QB Robison has been less efficient than Driskell was last year.  

Also, could be a game not getting that much attention, so probably does not take much to move the number down and probably no reason to move it back up too fast.  It has creeped up a couple of points the past 2 days.  The weather is definitely perfect for a high scoring game.  My whole day hinges on this game.....let's get it!!!
 
 
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Week (Weak) 5 Review:

BYU -$220   If you told me Tanner Mangum would go 18-21 passing and the Cougs held the ball for 28 minutes I'd think it was a competitive game, but alas it was not.   Cougars were sloppy with 8 penalties and lost a fumble.  Not the team I saw the first 4 weeks.  Washington played their best game of the year.

 FAU/MTSU -$350   This one hurt.  The defenses stepped up on 3rd down but the total yards were still there (822 combined).  MTSU missed 2 FG's, but the real kick in the nuts is when they scored the tying TD with 38 seconds left in regulation and opted to go for the win rather play for OT costing a decent shot at hitting the number.

New Mexico -$220  A QB switch at halftime sparked a 33-10 2nd half, but it was too late as the Lobos dug a 42-10 halftime deficit.  Even up 7-0 and tied 7-7 New Mexico had a 12-12 run/pass split on offense which should not have been.   They ended up with 37 carries for 211 yards but it was totally not what I saw them doing in this game.  

Kentucky +$200   Red hot Wildcats only needed to score in the 1st half to beat the Cocks at home.  A beautiful 34 minutes TOP and 197 yards rushing pushed their streak to 5 straight wins over SC

Week 5:  1-3 -$590
YTD:  11-6 +$530

I'm alternating W/L every other week so next week should be good haha...    leans did about 50%.  Stanford would have got me.  Nevada won SU.  

Looks like all the popular picks got hammered...  Buffalo, NT, BYU.   Tough week all around the board.
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