You have officially been warned....................

Maryland/Old Dominion over 62

Can't resist again taking an over that involves one of my favorite FCS (Div I-AA) teams, the pass-happy Old Dominion Monarchs. For those of you not familiar with ODU they are the FCS equivalent to the New Orleans Saints.  ie: An absolutely HORRIBLE defense and a great offense (mostly by passing) and lead by QB Tyler Heinicke. Heinicke last year won the Walter Payton Award for the best player in Div I-AA.  He has put up video game type numbers including a game last year where he threw for an NCAA record 730 yards in a 64-61 win over New Hampshire.

Now he is obviously going up in class here to face the Terps, however the point is I believe Heinicke and ODU will definitely score some points on the Terps. Additionally they have almost 20 players from MD who were no doubt shunned by the Terps during recruiting, which should provide some added motivation.

However I dont believe ODU will need to do much as I believe the Terps will score well over 50+ points against this porous ODU defense. To put it in perspective, ODU is transitioning to moving up to Div I-A next year and opened the season last week against  I-A East Carolina.

ODU lost that game 52-38 and gave up almost 500 yards of offense to East Carolina.  In that game of the 28 defensive players who saw action for ODU, 11 were playing their first college game. Additionally only one player (LB John Darr) played in all 11 ODU games last year. This defense is VERY young and VERY inexperienced.

Additionally the defensive lines has been hurt by injuries in what was an already weak D-Line.  Why is the defense so bad? In addition to experience, these guys never get much rest. The way ODU plays offense is completely feast or famine which is why they are great for overs. 

Looking into the drive charts for ODU vs. East Carolina:

Notice anything weird here?  Basically they either scored a touchdown, turned the ball over or had a very quick 3 and out. Notice the times of some of the drives where they went 3 and out?Thats because on many series ODU will throw 3 passes that if incomplete may not even take up a series that lasts 1 minute. Even when they scored there longest drive of the game was less than 5 minutes!  Impossible for their inferior defense to keep up that pace all game.  

Lastly in the game last week vs. ECU, through 25 minutes of game time ODU was leading that game 10-7. Through the remaining 35 minutes of this game these two teams proceeded to score 73 Points!  45 for ECU and 28 for ODU. When the flood gates open in ODU games the points come in bunches. Throw in some turnovers and this game should sail over the total.

ODU was involved in a 90 point game last week and I see something similar this week against the Terps which will go well over the posted line total. 

Temple +1 (2nd half)

Houston has outgained Temple by almost 100 yards, 7 more first downs than Temple, and ran a whopping 52 plays!  Had 3 FG's and missed another.

So a 3 point "public" favorite down 4 at the half can lose by 3 and still push the second half?

Where do I sign up?

New Hampshire +4    (2nd Half)   HUGE

NH is a Top 10 FCS team but I layed off this game because I really didn't know how Central Michigan would perform having lost both the starting QB and starting RB against Michigan last week.

Ive gotten my answer, they look absolutely horrible!  They have tried both backup QBs and they are both just as bad. What confidence CM might of had playing in their home opener is already out the window.

The more these backups have to pass, the better it is for NH. These two backups clearly aren't ready right now for this type of competition.

NH smells blood and its next on the list of the FCS to beat an FBS team.

Temple 

Went against my cardinal rule of never betting on or against my alma matter regardless of the circumstances. Wont see it again this year. Houston totally outplayed the Owls today they deserved to win and cover.

i broke MY cardinal rule of basing a wager on a great write-up--usually the better the write-up, the more likely the outcome goes the opposite way

What happened to the odu offense?

Game landed on 57 points and that was literally with both teams going through the motions the entire fourth quarter.

ODU pulled Heinicke in the middle of the 3rd qtr waiving the white flag.  Terps defense was way too much for him today but had he stayed in he would of eventually scored or kept turning it over.

Terps stopped passing middle of the third quarter as well. I thought ODU would at least represent better and capped MD to well over 50 points.

I would still make this bet at THAT total 10 times out of 10.

0-3 today, total stings the most.  Still going to roll with my Royals bet tonight but that might be it.

9-4 YTD

New Hampshire -13

Sticking with New Hampshire -13 as my big play (posted this earlier in the week) as my only pick for the early games. 

Wanted to do a write up on this game but don't have the time. New Hampshire will run wild on Colgate today. This line should be over 20+

New Hampshire wins by 30.

Ridiculous line in that game.

Fordham wins outright. 

For those who didn't see it, amazing ending to this game.

11-4 YTD

Mississippi State

12-4 YTD 

Site was down and wouldn't allow me to post UNLV (2nd half) so I obviously won't count it towards my record, but I did cash again.

Couple situations spots coming up next week that I will look to jump on lines early.

New Hampshire +22.5

Locking this one in now. Ridiculous line IMO has while Towson has played great this year, we now see that their upset at UConn in week one doesnt look so good anymore as the Huskies are horrible this year.

On paper you get the #2 ranked FCS team in the country at 5-0 against a 1-2 New Hampshire Team, but even at this high number I believe New Hampshire can pull the upset so I am definitely going to take all those points.

I personally would be surprised if this spread was ever in doubt in this game.

Georgia State +21

Jolly Saint Nick has no interest in putting up a 60 spot on this team today. Much bigger fish to fry.

Kansas State +14

Just not a believer in Okie State this year. Even before the loss to WV last week I think they have serious issues on both lines, in the trenches where games are won and lost.

The O Line is bad and the D Line is overrated.  If KState and handle the initial push by the Cowboys I believe they will be in this game throughout. Honestly would even surprise me if KState has a legit chance to win it on the final drive.

New Hampshire