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Cincinnati at Louisville (11/14/2008)

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Posted: #76
CINN WINS LOUISVILLE COVERS
 
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Posted: #77

Tonight is going to be an offensive game.  I look to see a lot of passing tonight.  Both these teams defend the run pretty well.  So I figure this game might just look like a MAC game with the quarterbacks throwing a lot, which both these QBs are pretty talented, especially Pike. Alot of passing = a lot more time on he clock to score. Which means I am leaning towards the OVER.

But, the biggest factor in tonights game, in my opinion, is the way Cincinatti cant close out a game.  Sure, theyre great in the first half. But, man...they just dont score much in the second half, especially when hey have the lead. They just let teams get back into the game. 

Score by quarters  1st  2nd  3rd  4th  OT   Total 
Cincinnati  61  85  58  30  6  240 
Opponents  41  29  65  49  3  187 

This shows Cinci cant hold onto a big lead with their defense and how theyre offense is pretty vulnerable when having a lead in the 4th.  And going into Papa Johns Stadium tonight, they better hope they are up by atleast 10-14 at the half, or Louisville is going to win this one outright at home. I think Cinci is the better team, but not on the road tonight.  I know they have a revenge factor, but I think Louisville will defend their turf tonight.  Louisville wins this outright on a last minute drive TD. Plus, with this line staying at 4 this whole time while public keep hitting on Cinci, I GOTTA GO LOUISVILLE.  GL cardinal backers! Vegas is gonna kick those bearcats ass tonight.

MyPrediction:

CIN  27

LOU 28

GL to ALL  LOU+4    over 46

 
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Posted: #78
I like Louisville to win this game straight up tonight. Louisville has a good track record against Cincy and plays very tough in their building. The home dog best bet in any sport. I love fading the heavy public road favorite, and I think this gamble will payoff huge tonight. Loiusville ml GLTA
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by Fpronk:

I couldn't agree more but Vegas also gets better and this is the time of the year it gets more difficult to win and when most lose what they've won the first 3/4 of the year.



I completely agree, as you get deeper into the season fading the public begins to pay off very well. Vegas has got it down and they will put out lines based on the public's emotion. Luckily based on my betting style, it only gets easier for me. Last week many of the public's favorites hit and so I feel this week Vegas will get it right back.
 
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Posted: #80
Last week was too easy for players in IMO. I am thinking the same here for this weekend. Vegas get them back...but not this game.
 
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Posted: #81
Geezus now I have seen it all, Sagarin ratings in a handicapping forum?  Unbelievable.  Guys - that means NOTHING!
 
Fading the heavy public action on the orad fave tonight, Louisville plus 4.
 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by T-REV1:

Tonight is going to be an offensive game.  I look to see a lot of passing tonight.  Both these teams defend the run pretty well.  So I figure this game might just look like a MAC game with the quarterbacks throwing a lot, which both these QBs are pretty talented, especially Pike. Alot of passing = a lot more time on he clock to score. Which means I am leaning towards the OVER.

But, the biggest factor in tonights game, in my opinion, is the way Cincinatti cant close out a game.  Sure, theyre great in the first half. But, man...they just dont score much in the second half, especially when hey have the lead. They just let teams get back into the game. 

Score by quarters  1st  2nd  3rd  4th  OT   Total 
Cincinnati  61  85  58  30  6  240 
Opponents  41  29  65  49  3  187 

This shows Cinci cant hold onto a big lead with their defense and how theyre offense is pretty vulnerable when having a lead in the 4th.  And going into Papa Johns Stadium tonight, they better hope they are up by atleast 10-14 at the half, or Louisville is going to win this one outright at home. I think Cinci is the better team, but not on the road tonight.  I know they have a revenge factor, but I think Louisville will defend their turf tonight.  Louisville wins this outright on a last minute drive TD. Plus, with this line staying at 4 this whole time while public keep hitting on Cinci, I GOTTA GO LOUISVILLE.  GL cardinal backers! Vegas is gonna kick those bearcats ass tonight.

MyPrediction:

CIN  27

LOU 28

GL to ALL  LOU+4    over 46

Do you have the same for Louisville...I would be interested in seeing both sides.

 
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Posted: #83
IM JUST PLAYING THE OVER....WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK OF BC CHANCES TOMORROW AT FLORIDA (WITHOUT THE FIVE WIDE RECIEVERS OUT) ,,,,,,,,
 
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Posted: #84
I would really like some help on where everyone is getting there public %....There are a lot of people posting that the public is all over Cinci but where are you getting this information? Not just for this game, but I see it all the time.
 
JPD says he loves fading the heavy public fav and is taking Louisville....can you please let me know where you're getting your information.
 
Thanks!
 
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Posted: #85
Funny how over 60% of the $$$ is on Cincy and the line has dropped to 3- from 4. Last night the majority of the $$$ was on V. Tech yet the line stayed Miami 4-, I was on Miami (LOSER) but they were up 16-7 late in the game and then I got back doored by the gimmy touchdown. If Miami gets one TD out of the three field goals they kicked, I cover.
 
 
Louisville + 3-
 
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Posted: #86
Louisville +4
 
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Posted: #87
Louisville is slow starting and last few games have put there self in a hole hope they win but if I got to bet its Cinncy and the 1st half.
 
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Posted: #88
save your money for the GAMECOCKS tom.!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #89
Bearcats -4 
 
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Posted: #90
Taking Cincy -2.5 1st half as mentioned all the way back on Sunday when this line came out. Comments since then seem to have backed up my reasoning.

Good luck to all... especially me.



 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by nohype08:

Geezus now I have seen it all, Sagarin ratings in a handicapping forum?  Unbelievable.  Guys - that means NOTHING!
 
Fading the heavy public action on the orad fave tonight, Louisville plus 4.

U thought you were banned???
 
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by johnnyjammer:

IM JUST PLAYING THE OVER....WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK OF BC CHANCES TOMORROW AT FLORIDA (WITHOUT THE FIVE WIDE RECIEVERS OUT) ,,,,,,,,


BC +6.5 is the way to go my friend. Line will probably drop to +6.0 by tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #93

My post didnt go through for some reason. The above stats are from vegasinsider.com. The following are from sb.com:

 

Click Here
29%

 
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Posted: #94
FPronk I'm not sure about everyone else but I usually get my Public numbers for sportsinsights.com.  Here is what they have so far for tonight's game.
 
Cincinatti - 64% of reported money
Louisville - 36%
 
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Posted: #95
GMar...I'm sorry dude.....She's just so frickin hott!  Probably my favorite avatar on covers.
 
Nicely done!  Who is she?
 
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Posted: #96
I usually don't take the "fade the public" too serious unless I see a significant swing to one side or the other.  Gradual migration doesn't necessarily mean a lot to me usually just that people have been hitting message boards and are following what they read.
 
Another consideration is percentage of the public for me.  I have been fading anybody with more than 80% of reported action with pretty good success the last four weeks.
 
Either way it's just info...so GL whatever you do.
 
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Posted: #97
Problem with these percentages is you can go to 5 different sites and get 5 different figures, don't really know who you can trust for the RIGHT info.
 
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Posted: #98
I've decided on Cincinnati -4. Cincinnati has lost two games this year...one to Oklahoma and the other to UCONN when they were banged up. I think Cinci covers here with a nice road win.
 
CINCI -4
UNDER 47.5
 
GLA
 
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Posted: #99
hmmm.... looks to me like they moved the thursday night home dog to friday this week....

LOU +4/ML
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by OffDaHook:

Problem with these percentages is you can go to 5 different sites and get 5 different figures, don't really know who you can trust for the RIGHT info.

I couldn't agree more...I am familiar with both the sites that are listed but don't really trust that information. That's like look at the wagerline.com % and trusting those...I'm taking the better team to cover on the road. Either way I'll enjoy watching the game while having a few beers.

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