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Connecticut at Pittsburgh (10/26/2011)

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by Pingi3plus:

Big D, hope the tuesday under gods forgive me.  I did not go under, I will leave it that.  Looking the forecast, uconn defense, the under should be there tonight.  With that also, uconn should be strong also.  Under Gods please grant mercy on waging sin last night.

Under 41.5

lol it's all good bro

Good luck

 
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Posted: #52
PItt and the Over
 
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Posted: #53
I finally figured this thing out....Monday the whole world was betting Baltimore, so I didn't just take the ten points.  I took the money line and scored 450 for the hundred. 

Sometimes it pays to be a doubting Thomas......
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by drcomer:

These lines are set based on 2 things...

1 - what odds makers think the outcome of the game will be and...

2 - what odds makers think the public is going to lay money on

Seeing how everybody seems to still be blinded by the Pitt/USF game thinking if Pitt can do that to USF what are they going to do to UConn...

Odds makers know that they can edge this line up a few points because they will still get the action they want on Pitt

UCONN +10.5


Disagree.  I seriously doubt the oddsmakers were shading the number.  If anything, that number was set to entice everyone onto UCONN.  And, predictably, the public is pounding UCONN.  Personally, I think it's a reverse line shift at 10-1/2.  In addition, predicting the outcome generally has little to do with making a line.  Most of the factors going into making a line is formulaic.  Once a number is established, then the human factors come into it, like public perception.  But I hope everyone wins taking UCONN.  I'm still on Pitt.  If i don't win, no big deal.  I've accumulated a healthy bankroll, so I can sustain a loss.  But this is a trap game.  And I rarely take favs.
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by yamutha:



Disagree.  I seriously doubt the oddsmakers were shading the number.  If anything, that number was set to entice everyone onto UCONN.  And, predictably, the public is pounding UCONN.  Personally, I think it's a reverse line shift at 10-1/2.  In addition, predicting the outcome generally has little to do with making a line.  Most of the factors going into making a line is formulaic.  Once a number is established, then the human factors come into it, like public perception.  But I hope everyone wins taking UCONN.  I'm still on Pitt.  If i don't win, no big deal.  I've accumulated a healthy bankroll, so I can sustain a loss.  But this is a trap game.  And I rarely take favs.

I said that there were 2 factors in setting a line, you assumed that I meant they were 50/50. They are NOT. The public lean is what makes and moves lines. My point was that some people seem to think that STATS alone are what set lines and are the best way to cap games. I was trying to enlighten some of our friends so there don't become the sheep that the odds makers want them to be. You totally misunderstood my post. 

But we do seem to be on opposite sides of this one.

GL. Someone has to win!

 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by drcomer:


I said that there were 2 factors in setting a line, you assumed that I meant they were 50/50. They are NOT. The public lean is what makes and moves lines. My point was that some people seem to think that STATS alone are what set lines and are the best way to cap games. I was trying to enlighten some of our friends so there don't become the sheep that the odds makers want them to be. You totally misunderstood my post. 

But we do seem to be on opposite sides of this one.

GL. Someone has to win!


My apologies if I misread.  And I agree that relying heavily on stats is probably the worst way to cap.  If it stays at 10, we can both not lose.  Either way good luck.
 
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Posted: #57
RAIN EXPECTED
 
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Posted: #58
I'm just trying to share some knowledge. These weekday games when there is only 1 or 2 games on the board are always traps. THEY know that WE(degenerates) have to play this game and they can put the line wherever they want, there will be action on it. If this game (Uconn/Pitt) was mid-day Saturday you would get a more true line. 

We need to BEWARE: Weekday games, big match-up, over-hyped games, and any nationally televised game. The lines are never true for these games so smell which side the bait is on and go opposite.
 
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Posted: #59
yea gotta go with u-con and the under   no reason really  just a gut feeling  gl fellas
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by matthewnyoung:

CONNECTICUT +10


joined COVERS in sept. 2004 and only 4 posts!

that's only one every two years
 
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Posted: #61

It's Pitts game to lose. They won't.

Pittsburgh - 31                      UConn - 17

Panthers -10                      over 42

I don't  care if the Panthers have trouble covering weekday home games, Graham will have them ready to the Huskies tonight in Steel City.

Crack open a case of Genesee and enjoy

Panthers - Over

 

 
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Posted: #62
Here in Pgh, overcast and temps dropping...calling for steady rain in the second half.....I am a PITT fan but have to go with UCONN +10 and the under.
 
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Posted: #63
Whoo hoooo.. Thanks to BigDaddy and all the Tuesday Night Special Under Bankers!! Got some money back from last week but not nearly as much as I lost.. Need to catch up on some bank roll so i can play Saturday! and screw the NFL!

Soo... anyone have any good stats on what to play tonight? Going to follow BigDaddy since he is pretty good in college but sucks in NFL?

UConn and the Under special?
 
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Posted: #64
Pitt Panthers -10

 Good luck 
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by Bluefin:

Sarah J say's the "sharp" play is Pitt




AD ALL OF THE SUDDEN SHE/HE IS A GREAT CAPPER CUZ SHE/HE PREDICTED THE OUTCOME OF THE JAGS BALT GAME

BS
 
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Posted: #66
uconn +10.5
 
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Posted: #67

Quote Originally Posted by gamboholic:

Whoo hoooo.. Thanks to BigDaddy and all the Tuesday Night Special Under Bankers!! Got some money back from last week but not nearly as much as I lost.. Need to catch up on some bank roll so i can play Saturday! and screw the NFL!

Soo... anyone have any good stats on what to play tonight? Going to follow BigDaddy since he is pretty good in college but sucks in NFL?

UConn and the Under special?

You're on the bottom of page 3..................can you read?

 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by Whalewatcher:

You're on the bottom of page 3..................can you read?



What does that even mean...? No crap I can read, that's why I said UConn.. but the under also?

Can you read.....?
 
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Posted: #69
Leaning under 42 myself and maybe a small play on the home team. UConn has not scored on offense in the last two games. They do have a good run D, so with those two factors I lean under
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #70

UConn +10 for me.

Good luck.

 
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Posted: #71
On the opposite of u bigD..

Final Play:
Pitt -10.5
Under 41

BoL guys
 
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Posted: #72

Chew on this...............

They have a combined O/U 5-9

This is (42) the lowest total posted for either team so far this season and the lowest in 7 match-ups in 7 years between both squads.............. EXCEPT when they played @ Conn in 2006 and the total was 40.5 and both teams scored well past that # seperately, Pitt 45 and Conn 46 !

So what does all this mean still don"t know

 
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Posted: #73
Pitt's runn attack = pretty good vs. Uconn Run Defense = pretty good = Clock ticking away = Under + Bad weather = turn overs in air and ground attack = Uconn cant score for shit = Under final play?
 
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Posted: #74

Quote Originally Posted by sodbuster925:

yea gotta go with u-con and the under   no reason really  just a gut feeling  gl fellas

 

 

same here ......GLTA........

 
 
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Posted: #75

Hmm..remember all the way back to Monday night, when there was a favorite of about 10, and an o/u near 40..Similar deal tonight..any correlation  b/w games with dbl digit line and low o/u?

Disclaimer: this statement was backed by 0% statistical analysis and no trends..just sayin-

Uconn and under for me as well..GL y'all

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