Nevada at Fresno State (11/07/2008)

Nice analysis and I love the mismatch you point out.  Fresno has fallen off the wagon, so I'm going with Nevada.  GLA

Agreed but Fresno is 1 - 1 ATS the spread when they are DOGS. Winning one outright and losing the other by 3 pts vs Wisconsin when they were getting 2 points.

I do like both Nevada's run game and run DEF. IMO the Nevada rushing attack will be the deciding factor here and the Wolfpack should pull out a win on the road. There is also the revenge factor from last years home loss to Fresno.

Early lean Nevada - 2 and UNDER 71

Does anyone have any insight on how bad nevada's pass defense is?

UNDA 70.5

Looks like they only give up 327.5 pass yards per game.  Ranked 119 out of 119.  hmmmm........

I think offenses move the ball but points will go up slower then expected.  This is a good spot for Fresno State to get out of their funk.  I like Fresno State and Leanin Under

since ive seen both teams in person, ill chime in.

In watching Hawaii play Fresno on the road and Nevada at home, I can definitely say that Fresno's pass D is better than Nevada's.  What I see as key in this game is going to be Fresno's Bear Pascoe (TE) the second team's leading receiver and touchdown receiving receiver (4) vs. the Nevada D.  Nevada D loses, big time, on this matchup. 

I watched a hawaii receiver climb the ladder and pull down a 50/50 pass with 30 or so seconds left in the game from about 4 rows away.  Nevada's pass defense was horrid all night long and when they did get good coverage they let a 5+ sec. 40yd dash QB run for first downs seemingly all night long. 

Against Hawaii, Fresno literally beat Hawaii in all phases of the game, except special teams and turnover margin.  Fresno (even with the 3rd string rb) outgained by nearly 200 yards, nearly doubled up on first downs,  The TO's is the only reason why Hawaii won ATS.  Seriously, Fresno coughed it up deep and often so many times it was hysterical.  Even one Turnover less that game and Fresno wins straight up.  three turnovers less and Fresno Covers.

The hawaii/nevada game, hawaii found its passing rythym (something that really isnt there this year) and took a two TD lead before giving it up (!) and then getting it back in the two minute drill on their last drive of the game. 

I dont see Nevada's pass D getting any better, even with the bye week.  Should fresno's run game get some marginal success early in the game, the play action pass to Pascoe is going to chew up real estate faster than the forclosure noticies streaming across the country.

As far as the line, ive got Fresno as the 5th team on my 5 team parlay and a fresno cover (-2 when I got it) will ratchet up my cheddar level just nicely, so I may be a teeny weeny bit biased in wanting them to win, but seriously fresno will find its passing game mojo this game and it will likely be enough to carry the day.

Way too much line movement in vegas as well. . . 4.5 point swing. . . i really doubt vegas would like to lose that kind of money.

Fresno state was finally favored at its smallest -2.5 then got it to a +2...Seems like a Trap like I said earlier with Utah...They Have the  home underdogs Covering and now that Fresno the Dog it makes it simple. Im from Cali and Hate Fresno but I know when they play home and there backs are against the wall they get it done and remember this Pat Hill Wants to get in a Bowl and a win over Nevada gets them closer. dont be fooled by nevada Great O but that D has kept teams in the game...If it was at nevada then I would pound Nevada but since there on the road and last time they were a -3 Fav on the road they lost...Good look to all...Go Bulldogs!

I feel that.....GL Tonite...

Fresno State is due people!!  I love going against the grain.