North Carolina at Georgia Tech (09/21/2013)

Away:  North Carolina [1-1 ATS]
Home:  Georgia Tech [2-0 ATS]

Game Time: 12:00 PM
Stadium: Bobby Dodd Stadium

Recent Meetings:
11/10/12 - GT 68 vs. UNC 50
09/24/11 - UNC 28 vs. GT 35
09/18/10 - GT 30 vs. UNC 24

Team Leaders:

North Carolina:
Passing: Bryn Renner (533)
Rushing: Romar Morris (115)
Receiving: Mark McNeill (99)

Georgia Tech:
Passing: Vad Lee (314)
Rushing: Vad Lee (125)
Receiving: Robert Godhigh (83)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

UNC is soft up front on defense, GT will roll that option over the Heels all day.  One of the best bets of the day take GT and lay the 6.

GT   -6          Four unit play 

so far 7 for GT, 1 for UNC

Play UNC

Leaning towards GT.  UNC defense is not good.  I like their QB but don't think they will be able to keep up.  Paul Johnson has done a good job down in Atlanta. 

Prediction:

GT 38

NC 26

GT-6.5

This game will be an off beat. The forecast calls for rain which will work in unc favor.  Taking unc at +7 for a dime.  good luck!

Not arguing with your score prediction but how can you say Johnson has done a good job?  They only win about seven games a year in an age where they play 12-13, and only go to low level bowls.  Fan attendance is very poor in an area with 4-5 million people to draw from, only fill a small stadium when the visiting team brings 15K fans. 

GT is located in a state which is #4 nationally in the number of D1 athletes it produces.  He has been a poor recruiter and is awkward with the press and boosters.  GT once played football at a competitive level but now gets most of their wins from cupcakes or mediocre teams.  When the boosters/administration finally pull the plug on him, they will be stuck with athletes that were recruited to run an offense that only the service academies and D1AA teams run.  It will take years to change the system to a new offensive scheme.  would give him a C- at best, far from excellent. 

As stated before, I am playing UNC +6.5 vs Ga Tech

First, I checked the forum on Covers and the GT side is running about 80%.  The SI consensus is also running about 80%.  Both of these indicate a strong public bias toward GT. 

Betting against the public will not make you a winner but betting with the public is guaranteed to make you a loser. 

Early line move was on UNC (6.5 to 5.5) and the most significant moves were seen at 3 of the 4 sharpest books.  Today we have started to hear from the public because the line on GT has begun moving the other way and is back to UNC +6.5

Money line players at sharp books like UNC by 57% while money line bettors as square books like GT by 81%.  Using the money line to make plays on pointspread lines is something I started watching a year ago and it seems to still be working in CFB.

I follow 12 indicators.  Two are on UNC.  None are on GT.  

 I correspond with  a network of sharp cappers from around the US. whose opinions I use  to guide me off the weakest plays.  So far, none of these sharper players have any dislikes  about UNC to any great degree.  The most negative opinion I have received is that there are better plays on the board this weekend.

Record this year 15 wins 10 losses

Posted on my blog at Covers

Covers Contest 19 Wins, 16 Losses

Verifiable - look 'em up