Texas at Alabama (01/07/2010)

Good Point on Texas Stopping Run though.

Defense Against The Run

Year: 2009

Thru: 01/02/10 Minimum Pct. of Games Played

Rank

Name	Games	Carries	Net	Avg	TDs	Ydspgm	Wins	Losses	Ties
1	Texas	13	407	808	1.99	5	62.15	13	0	0
2	Alabama	13	367	1013	2.76	5	77.92	13	0	0

  Well that statement made absolutely NO sense.  The line has moved a full point from opening from Bama -5 to Bama -4 becuse the public is pounding Texas. The 20 people posting in this forum is not going to have an effect on this game.

This is why I rarely post in these forums anymore. I remember when you could come  on this site to get valuable capping info from experienced cappers. Now it's mostly just a bunch of hoo haws offering opinions and picks with no facts that back up their statements. Stuff like " MY TEMAS GOING TO ROLL HERE BECAUSE THE OTHER TEAM SUCKS! BET YOUR WHOLE BANK ROLL BECAUSE I SAID SO! HEE HAW!

This doesn't apply to everyone but anyone who has been reading and posting for a long time knows wht I mean. Time to start searching for a new website this one has been over run ny amatures! Sorry to take up space on the forum but had to vent. I'm really sick of this. You read through pages and pages of bull shit to get maybe 5 or 6 valid posts.

I hear ya Big Vegas!

Bama -4. I am making this pick because of what I witnessed during their last game. Texas barely beat Nebraska on a last second field goal. And I cant say that i liked what bama did to the gators, but they f'*kin killed them. Bama wins this game by more than people think.  Bama wins by 14.

SEC, SEC, SEC, SEC, SEC, SEC, SEC, SEC, SEC, SEC, SEC

Wait and take Texas with the points.  They should not be easy for Bama.  Both have great Defenses.  

Don't think that's right. Pregame sportsbook spy shows 75 percent of the action is on Bama. The public is pounding the favorite, as usual. Which means there's a solid reverse line play. The public isn't moving the line. It's the sharps.

With that said, the biggest reason to play Texas -- their run D -- still bothers me because Bama plays a pro style scheme  and they do it very, very well. Texas might have a good run D but they haven't seen Bama's scheme and they haven't seen it run this well. Stopping Bama's ground game is going to be a world different for Texas than stopping Oklahoma's or Texas Tech's. They would have a better chance if they were coming from the Big 10 where the power running game is nothing new.

On the other side of the ball, Texas' O line is average and that could get Colt destroyed by Bama's blitz scheme. 

I initially thought Texas was the play. But the more I look at this game the more I think it's Bama. And that's not a good feeling with the public jumping on the SEC team.

i am a huge sec fan and i think it is the best conference. i think the game of the year for bama was that florida game and their season was over after that game.. everyone is pounding bama and i have a strange feeling that texas will take this one.. texas wins 27-13

Oh, one other thought: the underdog keeps winning the title game for a reason. They're not only typically undervalued but it's also easier to focus when nobody thinks you're going to win. Bama has been hearing nothing but how great they are for a month. Texas has been given no shot. Not good for Bama backers. Especially when Bama has focused all year on beating Florida. A let down is possible.

Big Vegas-

Good point.  Too many people with "Locks" and so and so's play of the year, etc.  Because you have 50,000 posts doesn't make you an expert on anything.  There are some valuable cappers that I do like to follow their threads.

As for the game, seems like the public is on Bama though.  But larger money seems to be on Texas.  Still not sure who I'm playing yet but my lean is on Texas.  Kinda reminds me of the USC Texas matchup.  Not that USC is like bama or anything but on paper and public perceptions seems like Texas wouldn't be able to keep up. 

Moore looked pretty accurate to me (Boise/TCU)... Using your logic, wouldn't you think the QB with more experience would fare better? Texas' secondary is strong... Auburn & South Carolina's secondaries gave McElroy trouble with less talent & time to prepare than this Texas team has.

Talk about trends... I'm suprised I haven't seen anyone mention McElroy has never lost a start (High School or College). "Trends are meant to be broken"... I think I read from a couple Alabama backers?  

TAKE THE OVER!!!! If this game was going to be a defensive struggle the number would be in the 30's like the Nebraska game. 46 points are a gift from God if you follow the defensive numbers. There will be turnovers and never underestimate special teams. I see an NFL style game with more mistakes and even more heart!!

As for the side... I'm leaning Texas, but what do you guys care?! From what I can tell, everyone has already made up their mind. I'm still not 100%, but I don't see how anyone could look at this game and not take Texas and the points. That's what scares me!!

Good luck to all...  

 

Mack Brown- "This is not about who had the best season. This isn't even about the history. This isn't even about who has the best team. It's about whose going to play the best for 3 1/2 hours,"

Colt McCoy- "To be able to overcome a game like that (Nebraska), with the ups and the downs and not very many things go your way and you still find a way to win, I think that really boosts your team,"

"Texas did not handle Nebraska's fierce pass rush well, allowing McCoy to be sacked nine times, and Mack Brown hinted at lineup changes after what he saw as a team-wide subpar performance against the Cornhuskers -- especially with Alabama's formidable pass rush up next. "What we're doing is we're going back and being really, really hard on the guys," Brown said. "We're having a lot of tough, physical drills and we're changing the depth chart daily."

(ESPN.com)

Final Play(s); Texas +5.5 ($3)/ Parlay-Texas ML (+175) & Ov 46 ($1)

Good luck to all...

bama bama bama all the way to the bank

This is what 75% of the public thinks and 75 % of the posters on this site are saying. Vegas doesnt usually lose money on big games. 

The reason I look through this stuff is to read posts like the ones from bamafan9, maldini, fooltime and a couple of others.

I agree with everything maldini posted....kudos to him.

This is by far not an easy game to cap..... most of you agree that neb has a good defense and sacked the crap out of mccoy, alabama could very well do the same to texas.

Even though bama's offense had a great game against florida's defense and ran all over them they also had a terrible game agasint south carolina's defense. The same D that uconn ran all over and basicly malled them. You just cant trust bama's offense.

I like the texas run defense but they havent seen a running game like bama's this year. Not sure whats going to happen hear but I'm pretty certain bama will have a hard time passing on texas.

On special teams I believe Texas has the better matchup. They will be getting better field position. They might even score on a kick return. That coupled with getting points because the public perception that bama is the better team. I think I will be on texas.

Good luck all.

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I love how everyone is basically calling this game based on how each team did in their last game.  I'll take Texas ML please.  Vegas caters to the popular belief, remember that.  Of course Alabama is the favorite, it's the obvious choice.   

Final Plays

Alabama -4
Over 46

Good Luck Guys

Just need bama on the ML to rake in my 3 team parlay. No doubt it is their time.

                           ROLL TIDE!! 

No playoff system, how can you tell who's really #1? I'am glad college basketball and the NFL has one.

This game is no more than a beauty contest and i hope Ala blows out Texas.

Alabama -5.0!

     

Wrong rookie, most of us look at the weak links of Texas. O line and def secondary. Neither is chopped liver but given this much time, Saban and CO will dial in the timely blitzes and Bama will be up a TD at half (Tx starts out slow) and will hang on for the cover with a mix of pass and that incredible clock eating ground attack. Tx will want no part of Bama tonight!  

   Save your , Bama rolls big!

  I Had Boise State ML (yet felt good all game) but Moore was not ON until 3rd Q! The punter threw the 4th and long pass remember. The timing plays will be off some for both teams but this game will come down to who executes and wants it more. It's Bama's game to lose though, and I assure you they won't!!! Saban has great team focus....has their focus on the task at hand and eye on the prize!

OK I'm done....will come on after game with my toasts to all wise sports investors....not just sports fans.

I AM NOT SURE WHO WILL WIN BUT I AM TKING THE TIDE BECAUSE IT WILL BE A PLEASURE ROOTING AGAINST COLT MCCOY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OMG !! Now i know texas is a good team but i just checked the schedule only to realize the toughest game they played was Nebraska !! Unless you include powerhouses like Oklahoma, ok state, Kansas, Colorado, Hmm, dont forget, central florida, Baylor, Utep and A & M , which a mediocre Ga team dismantled and Texas squeaked by them as well !! ROLL TIDE ROLL !!!!!! Should not even be close unless Mcelroy has a bad game, Good Luck and God Bless to all !!

one thing i hope is that alabama doesnt come out to tight - sabin will have those kids so wound up - might be good - might be bad - texas will come out alot more loose - again might be good - might be bad - feedback appreciated

two facts i like

Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Longhorns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Bowl games.

Longhorns are 2-6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.

Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12.