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Texas at Alabama (01/07/2010)

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Posted: #101
i really cant stand colt mccoy - he is such a douche bag
 
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Posted: #102
Quote Originally Posted by FoolTime:

Mack Brown- "This is not about who had the best season. This isn't even about the history. This isn't even about who has the best team. It's about whose going to play the best for 3 1/2 hours,"

Colt McCoy- "To be able to overcome a game like that (Nebraska), with the ups and the downs and not very many things go your way and you still find a way to win, I think that really boosts your team,"

"Texas did not handle Nebraska's fierce pass rush well, allowing McCoy to be sacked nine times, and Mack Brown hinted at lineup changes after what he saw as a team-wide subpar performance against the Cornhuskers -- especially with Alabama's formidable pass rush up next. "What we're doing is we're going back and being really, really hard on the guys," Brown said. "We're having a lot of tough, physical drills and we're changing the depth chart daily."

(ESPN.com)

Final Play(s); Texas +5.5 ($3)/ Parlay-Texas ML (+175) & Ov 46 ($1)

Good luck to all...

good post but where the hell are you getting +5.5 - did you buy a point
 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by bamafan9:

Good Point on Texas Stopping Run though.

Defense Against The Run
Year: 2009 Thru: 01/02/10 Minimum Pct. of Games Played
Rank
Name Games Carries Net Avg TDs Ydspgm Wins Losses Ties
1 Texas 13 407 808 1.99 5 62.15 13 0 0
2 Alabama 13 367 1013 2.76 5 77.92 13 0 0

good post
 
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Posted: #104

Quote Originally Posted by kurtatchison:

Last year, Utah 31 Bama 17.  Utah never accused of being physical.  Just a slick offensive team with mediocre defense that manhandled Bama.  Texas is better on offense and twice as good on D. 

good post - the only thing i wonder is how motivated alabama was in this game - after losing the sec title game

 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by dhumber:

I have been using this thread for info for a while.......I have been watching the line drop down to 3.5 at many books........Bama backers beware as this line opened at 5.5 & books are now dropping to 3.5.???...books are wanting you to bet Bama...........if they wanted Texas action they would have the line at 5.5 or 6 .....with most all over Bama seems fishy.....

the reason the line dropped is people bet texas - books want the same on either side and soak up the juice with no risk -
 
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Posted: #106

Quote Originally Posted by ronnie101:

Correct me if I am wrong but isn't Texas simular to Florida so why cannot bama do the ame thing to Texas as they did to Florida

i think texas has a better run d then florida

 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by drew123:

well....fwiw...texas would have been a slight favorite at many books prior to that Florida game...words from multiple books i know but do not bet with

texas will cover easy here...winning by 10-12pts

to all those that said bama has a passing game, that passing game is set up by the great run game they have, if texas shuts down the run chances are good the passing game will fall apart and give up a turnover or two

good post - if texas shuts down the run watch out
 
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Posted: #108

Quote Originally Posted by gtsum:

bama will not be able to run against the texas front 7 imo...horns will get their offense untracked and make adjustments to their offensive line after what the Huskers did to them.  If you see Texas giving up sacks like they did against huskers, they have no chance in this game........I dont think that will happen and the Horns get the cover here (I have them at +4.5)

good post -

 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by Ryno1524:

This should be a great match-up.  Two good defenses and two pretty even offenses.  Of course I'll be cheering on the hometown team but I'll take Texas anywhere beyond -5.5 pts.

Texas has the best run defense in the country.  If they can keep Bama in 3rd and longs they are in great shape to win this game.  They lead the nation in third down conversion efficiency (not sure of the exact number....24% or something) on defense.  Will Muschamp is the defensive coordinator of the decade.  Who did he learn from??? Saban of course, so thats going to be fun to watch mentor vs. apprentice. 

Bama's defense will shut the Texas offense down just like OU and Neb.  Question is what game plan will Texas come out with.  It seems to be a familiar theme of Mack Brown tweaking things over the month bowl break.  Greg Davis sucks 90% of the time and hopefully Mack lays out the game plan for him, taking away his ability to call 5yd pass plays over and over again.  Texas should score a couple of times and keep it close. 

I dont see either team scoring more than 24 points in this game.  It should be a defensive struggle and a game of chess, waiting for someone to make a mistake.  To me this is a 3-4 point game either way. 

Trends that give me hope for a Texas UPSET:
Texas kickoff return #4 vs Bama kickoff defense #117
2005 National Championship --- Reggie Bush beat Vince for the Heisman....Vince destroyed USC (Colt is no where near Vince in talent but will motivation have him pumped up?) Very similar situation....NO PRESSURE ON TEXAS AT ALL.  EVERYONE IS ON BAMA TO WIN JUST LIKE USC WITH THERE 3-PEAT ALREADY ON THE TROPHY.  THATS A RECIPE FOR AN UPSET!!!

TEXAS -5.5 ---- really looking for it to hit -6


good post - i am from s. cal and i took texas vs usc the year texas upset them - i dont think alabama is that over-confident - one thing that scare me about alabama is i think texas will shut down there run game
 
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Posted: #110

Alabama is the bet! Everyone that thinks alabama blew their emotional wad in the Florida game will be proven wrong.  The let down game only applies when a team either loses the emotional game in question, or they go to a bowl they deem dissapointing. Neither apply here. If you think Alabama is going to come in flat with the National Championship within their grasp, then you are either a Texas fan or are simply reaching!

Texas isn't going to be able to run the ball on Alabama.  I have to believe that Saban will double Shipley and rush heavy to rattle McCoy.  Several other receivers are going to have to step up for Texas to be able to score. Texas only hope, IMO, is a meltdown from McElroy.

 
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Posted: #111
A few more thoughts: Bama's D line is built to stop the run first. Nebraska was able to get pressure--largely because of Suh--from their front four without blitzing. But Bama will have to bring extra men to get to McCoy and that will open up space for receivers to break off their routes on hot reads. This is exactly how Texas wants to move the ball. 

And as other posters have noted, Bama is a run first offense. But not only are they run first, they're not close to being balanced. If Texas can slow down the Bama ground game then Bama is going to have big problems moving the ball. We're looking at a team that was held to point totals of 22, 20, 12, 24 and 26. That's not exactly a juggernaut. While I'm not convinced Texas will be able to shutdown Bama's run attack, I do think they can get them in 3rd and long enough times to make Bama struggle moving the ball. 

I don't think this is a game to make a big play on. I see value on Texas +4 with a possible small play on the Texas money line.
 
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Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by maldini:

A few more thoughts: Bama's D line is built to stop the run first. Nebraska was able to get pressure--largely because of Suh--from their front four without blitzing. But Bama will have to bring extra men to get to McCoy and that will open up space for receivers to break off their routes on hot reads. This is exactly how Texas wants to move the ball. 

And as other posters have noted, Bama is a run first offense. But not only are they run first, they're not close to being balanced. If Texas can slow down the Bama ground game then Bama is going to have big problems moving the ball. We're looking at a team that was held to point totals of 22, 20, 12, 24 and 26. That's not exactly a juggernaut. While I'm not convinced Texas will be able to shutdown Bama's run attack, I do think they can get them in 3rd and long enough times to make Bama struggle moving the ball. 

I don't think this is a game to make a big play on. I see value on Texas +4 with a possible small play on the Texas money line.
great post!!!!
 
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Posted: #113

Texas 21

Bama 17

HOok'em

 
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Posted: #114
TEXAS COVERS.......BAMA might win but ill take the points and maybe the over
 
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Posted: #115
OVER 46 looks good since both teams are all about the Offense
 
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Posted: #116
  • McCoy will be starting his fourth bowl game. McElroy will be starting his first.

  • Texas averages 27.8 yards per KO return, 4th most in the nation. Alabama’s KO return defense ranks 116th in the nation.



 
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Posted: #117
Here is my stat of the day. According to playboy magazine the amount of time the football is actually in play during the sixty minutes of a game is 14 minutes. I like both defenses and think passing games will a bit off. Like the Under.
 
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Posted: #118

Quote Originally Posted by tileman999:

Here is my stat of the day. According to playboy magazine the amount of time the football is actually in play during the sixty minutes of a game is 14 minutes. I like both defenses and think passing games will a bit off. Like the Under.

Don't believe everything you read...

 

 
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Posted: #119

Quote Originally Posted by steve103061:

good post but where the hell are you getting +5.5 - did you buy a point

Local book, but the line is managed by some offshore company... Went from 5 to 5.5 Tuesday. It had been as low as 4 and as high as 6. No line movement yesterday, so I wanted to take the points before it went back down. I don't see it getting back to 6.  

 
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Posted: #120
Local books in Tuscaloosa are BAMA -7.5!!!! No Texas bets. Sounds like teaser time.
 
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Posted: #121
taking the dog and maybe the under.  for the bowls this year, like last year too, the dogs have come a calling:  20 wins for dogs 11 wins for favs and 2 pushes.  14 overs and 19 unders.  texas is better than given credit for, alabama is also good.  closer than the book states.  good luck all and watch out for the snow.
 
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Posted: #122
I dont see anyone beating Bama if they play like they did against Florida. Underdogs have been killing it all bowl season and -4 in the chip may be the luckey number. Ganna be a game time decision depending on what my book has the spread at. The only fact here is Colt McCoys girlfreind is smoking.
 
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Posted: #123
This is the worst game to throw any money on. Only amateur bettors find this type of game intriguing. I'm sure smart bettors wouldn't even touch this game. It is a hard game not to have any action on it just because. I'd still have to say Bama wins and covers. Texas hasn't played anybody. Bama won't let it get into a shootout either, not their style of ball.  Sorry, Colt will be denied.
 
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Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by buckeye61:

  I Had Boise State ML (yet felt good all game) but Moore was not ON until 3rd Q! The punter threw the 4th and long pass remember. The timing plays will be off some for both teams but this game will come down to who executes and wants it more. It's Bama's game to lose though, and I assure you they won't!!! Saban has great team focus....has their focus on the task at hand and eye on the prize!

OK I'm done....will come on after game with my toasts to all wise sports investors....not just sports fans.

Saban & Brown are both great coaches. Both teams will be as focused as possible in a title game. There will be nerves, given the environment, rather than the layoff. The post I commented on made it sound as though these guys have been sitting on the coach for the last month. Moore was "pretty accurate", in my opinion. The pass the punter completed was due to lack of coverage and a great call on Boise's part, not the arm of the punter.

I'll agree with you on the fact that this is Alabama's game to lose, however I'm not too interested in what team wins the game. Rather, who covers. I took Texas +5.5, because of the points. If this game becomes a shootout, I think Texas wins outright. Otherwise, I think Texas can keep this Alabama offense in check and cover the number. Difference in opinion here, that's all.

I think Alabama's running game is strong and will have some big plays, but Texas isn't ranked # 1 against the run because they've played weaker teams. If we were talking about the third game of the season, I could rationalize this theory.

Good Luck to you Sir. 

 
 
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Posted: #125
bama wins big ,if i must say texas score 17pts in this one
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