WC

corrí^^^ smh my preterito aint what it once was

WCTD: 9-7 (+3.15)

1* dinamarca -110

WCTD 9-8 (+2.05)

transitive property once again makes me like france here. very unimpressed with denmark, and austrailia surprised by being the better team.  peru seemed all out of sorts in denmark game except for counters and denmark doesnt really seem to have the class to justify that after austrailia game.  the americas seem like a step below and will begin fading them. if neymar's song and dance turns out to be just that i should get a +2 middle 1* on tomorrow as i am not overly convinced by brazil who appears to be "class" of south america, but much less so by central america. will probably be looking to add on to france at half in case of a likely ugly first half.

2* oui oui/brazieres -110

Brazil will convinced you tomorrow. Expect a 3-0 or 4-0

WCTD: 10-8 (+4.05)

brazil failed to convince despite the "convincing" score line and i am feeling better and better about belgium. +800 seems to still have value but I would like to see how they perform against someone other than the worst team in the tournament.  iceland and nigeria should be cagey to say the least. nigeria actually played solid defense against croatia and croatia has proven to be quite explosive. who knows what to make of argentina but icelands MO is organization and patience dating back to euro '16. i expect either team to shut it down with a first half goal and will look to add at half if that is the case.

1* sons and kings U2 -120

WCTD: 10-8-1 (+4.05)

feels good to get one wrong and get a push. narrative continues, south america and argentina in particular trash, croatia super legit. west africa looking surprisingly good when the expectations were for northern africa. really looking forward to a nigeria play vs argentina with a lot on the line should get a pretty good price too.  hard to judge serbia and switzerland from their first games considering how brazil/costa rica game played out but obviously little left to be desired from both results.  hard to claim value in a draw at +200 but think its there for a small play as opposed to the under.

.5* neutral draw +200

WCTD: 10-9-1 (+3.55)

unreal performance from swiss. especially given ethnic ramifications.  good stuff from the beautiful game. going to get a bit unorthodox and go with a 3 team parlay. while i do believe in tunisia we are talking about belgium here, and we do know this year it is different.  popping the lid off, albeit against panama, was extremely encouraging and hoping for a follow through performance here.  simply put germany can not afford to lose this game.  with an agressive mindset and first game after winning world cup behind them i like their class to shine through.  and while you could pretty much tell me any team was playing panama and i'd be cool with it, i was impressed with englands resolve against a most likely underrated tunisia, although northern africa has underwhelmed tunisia did have most african qualifying points fwiw. either way, england seems to be well suited for their current sentiment and makeup and i like them to build upon it, and they are playing panama. practicing risk management limiting to 2* but it is a 3 team parlay in world cup so 2* is probably excess

2* tripel/hefe/ale +135

well this time sure is looking different.  The direction of belgium gotta give you at least a half chub. northern africa's poor showing still has the skeptic in me concerned and they could have just taken care of business against 2 of the weaker teams in tournament but regardless 8 goals is 8 goals and love the looks of this team under martinez. completely different than 14 and 16. surely 8:1 will be long gone. contrarian wants to take korea here but mexico's performance against germany was too strong. would think a letdown is in order but it is the world cup so unlikely. laying off.  will be watching closely for some additional insight into this afternoons game.

korea been more threatening than expected. should start pressing more needing a result which most likely will create more opportunities for the both of them

1* arriba arriba 2h o1.5 +120

WCTD 11-9-1 (+4.75)

same logic as mexico/korea, swedens ability to counter and germany's desperation to score should be good recipe for goals

1* 21st century blondes/20th century blondes 2h o1.5 -140

WCTD: 13-9-1 (+8.45)

well even though both goals came in extra time they both felt overdue, particularly german one. korea's finishing could not have been worse and was actually shocked at the quality of that strike considering what i had seen 90' leading up to that. the chances were there in both games but it is still hard to put it into the net.  that being said good gracious germany. what a performance.  while my current parlay definitely appreciated kroos' wunderstrike, my future would not have minded seeing germany put themselves behind the 8ball with a draw there or even better eliminated with a loss.  assuming it gets to that point a quarterfinal matchup with brazil/germany (cough cough germany) seems in the cards should belgium win/draw vs england. enough speculating though, belgium needs to continue playing as aggressively as they have and for kompany/vermaelan to come back because the defense has been suspect at best when pressed and to say boyata has been an atrocity would be putting it mildly. senegal impressed against a seemingly strong polish side and japan managed to beat colombia who are probably fighting with argentina to be most overrated squad in world cup.

1* sen city pk -125

WCTD: 12-9-2 (+8.45)

entertaining game. japan was stronger than expected and imo the better team.  senegal lacked the organization to sustain a lead and i feel was lucky to get the draw.  interesting dynamic for game coming up with both teams having to avoid defeat.  could be pretty cagey. hard to draw conclusions from japan/colombia based off this mornings game and the fact that colombia played a man down.  but sticking with the theme that's been working so far with me i will start w a small play on poland.  if we do have a 1-0 halftime score i will surely be on second half over again.

1* sausage +.25 -105

*WCTD: 13-9-2 (+10.45)

math is hard

yea i don't see it with poland. lewandowski in another country and as a whole poland just seems disinterested. laying off

WCTD: 13-10-2 (+9.4)

bad reads all around. that was the colombia of '14 we saw tonight except now they have falcao.  got sucked into the south american trash narrative and losing and scoring a man down against a solid japanese team.  poland was beyond bad and it seems evident now that japan and colombia are the class of this group, will be on both sides in next games.  a little upset i got off the 2h over train for this one although it did play out a little differently, felt confident poland was not gonna score but did not expect colombia to keep foot on gas. good on them. it was a price too so that stings a little. anyways couple games i have circled in later stages and russia/uruguay is one of them.  while it is obvous saudi arabia and egypt are both garbage. one team had a 7 goal differential between the two of them and one needed extra time to beat egypt sans salah and was happy to ice a 1-0 lead vs saudi arabia.  as said before russia is not fucking around and for whatever reason came in underrated after being what seemed to be appropriately rated early on. the fact that a draw benefits them makes the risk on this one seem pretty minimal. they obviously have something special working and are in great form while uruguay has yet to resemble their 2010 selves. may add before tomorrow but right now 3* seems right with the draw not hurting us or russia.

3* putin pk +105

WCTD: 13-11-2 (+6.4)

swing and a miss, uruguay's talent superceded and was a bit of a funky game all around.  atrocious mistake from russia to give it up under almost no pressure and then possibly even a dumber foul just outside box when there was a defender in front. great finish from suarez although gotta wonder what russian defender who cleared the way was doing.  second goal was kanesque luck but so it goes.  simple enough logic here is both teams need to win/one up groupmate to take group. trying not to make a habit of these parlays but alas

1* west iberia/east iberia +115

13-12-2  (+5.4)

that's why you don't do parlays.  narratives are clearly for first and second legs and the third games take on a whole new dynamic.  unfortunately bagholding a denmark to win group which is paying the same as denmark ml today.  only for .5* but i do think france gets the result they need as denmark really left a bad taste in my mouth after austrailia game.  hopefully i'm as wrong ab this read as i was about yesterday's games.  as for the other game to say peru has been disorganized would be putting it mildly.  they have been fun to watch on counters and with essentially nothing to play for i do think they come out guns blazing.  australia also needing to win sounds like a forecast for goals.  even if austrailia gets the early lead i don't expect peru to shut it down and not sure austrailia has the skill to play keep away. also best case scenario austrailia will need goal differential. 

2* inca trail o2.5 -105

13-13-2 (+3.3)

that was hard to watch.  congratulations peru on preserving your third place finish in the group those last 25 minutes.  well at least i feel like i read that one right as opposed to my last few whiffs.  anyways stated earlier that i couldn't wait to play nigeria against argentina and the only thing thats changed is the inmates are supposedly running the asylum now.  i guess that could spark a change but i simply do not think argentina is very good, their finals run in 14 still blows my mind.  and messi has not proven he can carry a team.  i expect nigeria to approach game similarly to croatia and have midfield presence to do so.  as for the other game iceland has tons to play for while croatia has nothing having all but wrapped up the group.  expecting a lot of rested players.

1.5*/.5* isldur +.5 +100/+320

1.5*/.5* south niger +1.25 -130/+500

WCTD: 13-15-2 (+1.55)

1* germany/switzerland -115

1* serbia +1 -115

WCTD: 13-17-2 (-.75)

back to the whiffs. clearly my reads on third games of group couldn't have been more off. going to continue to tread lightly with two pretty square plays. poland pretty similar spot to peru as fairly hyped team that lost both their first two matches.  while peru came out blazing i don't see that happening with poland, lewandowski has some face to save but really can't see how they get up for this one and japan clearly has the cohesion and team play you're looking for in someone to back in the world cup.  colombia has burned me twice so why not a third. senegal beating poland means nothing to me and thought japan exposed them with their patience.  not sure colombia has it in them to change it up because the superior talent should prevail in a game matching up similar styles. group dynamics do favor both of these results but that has meant too much early on. i wanna say i like goals in the senegal/colombia matchup but noway i trust a south american team to not draw out the last third of the game should they have the lead. both plays feel super square but also align with my initial reads after second games.

1* red dot pk -105

1* primary colors -120

WCTD: 14-18-2 (-.8)

more of the same with absolutely no reads on anything back to being pretty meh on colombia despite the win.  i think too much is being made out of two sides of the bracket.  brazil finally started to impress against serbia but first two games were beyond underwhelming while mexico seems like they've yet to prove anything substantial. sweden or switzerland would be a slightly more favorable quarterfinal matchup on paper but both, sweden in particular, have proven their mettle.  and while i am meh on colombia their flashes have been frightening so you would rather take chances than that rather a predictable japan.  then after that spain/croatia or france/argentina/uruguay/portugal. i personally think the two best teams so far of those six are on the "easy" side.  all that being said i don't see the incentive the media seems to be portraying to finish second in this group, let alone the fact its never a good idea to purposely get out of rhythm when you are rolling as these two teams have been.  something to be said for rest but i don't like it and with these lineups i think you are crossing the line from rest to sabotage. that being said, they don't call it the golden generation for nothing and the players on the field want to perform. could possibly be counterintuitive unless the subs are under specific instructions to tank which i don't believe to be the case.  i do like seeing vermaelan out there and understand getting kompany another 4 days of rest.  defenses should be quite rusty, neither have been stellar so far at full strength, and assuming it is anything other than a farce of a match there should be plenty of attacking alternates trying to make their case.  also going to side with the golden generations depth on a smaller scale.

1* almost golden generation +.25 -125

2* backup goals o2 -110

GROUP STAGE: 15-19-2 (-2)

GROUP FUTS: 2-1 (+1.5)

WCTD: 17-20-2 (-.5)

OPEN FUTS:

5* beljum "the group stage looked different" +1100

ADDED FUTS:

2.5* croatia +1150

2.5* croatia runner up +1600

1* sweden loses in semis +700

1* switzerland loses in semis +600

UPDATED PROP: gonna be hard to get there without a belgium win or croatia making finals, gonna shade it to the under -120.

love croatia's path and more importantly how they are playing. think sweden and switzerland are undervalued and think winner of that game is likely to take colombia/england winner and there I like whoever comes out of croatia quad to get through there. belgium>croatia>sweden/switzerland would be the nuts