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World Cup 2018 Dogs, Darts , and Dunks

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Captain
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Posted: #1

Hi all - its been awhile since I've posted here but I am always following. Definitely wanted to try and get back on for the World Cup. 

My general strategy is to play either side of the so-called juicy lines but will also occasionally take some value when I see it. Below are my futures bets I have locked in so far. Happy to discuss.

 

Futures

Russia to finish last in Group A +1030 (risk 0.177%)

Russia NOT to advance from Group A +205 (risk 0.328%)

Spain to advance from Group B -1110 (risk 0.917%)

Argentina to finish last in Group D +1800 (risk 0.053%)

Argentina NOT to advance from Group D +535 (risk 0.157%)

Argentina NOT to reach quarterfinal +125 (risk 0.444%)

Argentina NOT to reach final -515 (risk 0.837%)

Switzerland to finish last in Group E +350 (risk 0.222%)

South Korea Lowest Scoring Team in the World Cup +1200 (risk .077%)

Panama to advance from Group G +995 (risk 0.136%)

Colombia to finish last in Group H +660 (risk 0.197%)

Colombia NOT to advance from Group H +225 (risk 0.154%)

 

I will be fairly inactive for the first round of games except for totals or obvious plays. Otherwise, I find myself betting all of the same angles as my future bets. 

 

Good luck all

peace_5

 
Captain
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Posted: #2
Round 1
Russia v Saudi Arabia DRAW +345 (risk .225%)
Spain v Portugal Under 2,2.5 -126 (risk 0.557%)
Argentina v Iceland DRAW +413 (risk 0.195%)
Mexico v Germany Under 2.5 -105 (risk 0.512%)

 
All-Star
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Posted: #3

long time no see ark. hope all is good

 

Love the fades on Russia and Argentina.

good value on those draw plays.

BOL

 
Captain
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Posted: #4

Quote Originally Posted by mr_bollox:

long time no see ark. hope all is good   Love the fades on Russia and Argentina. good value on those draw plays. BOL

Good to see you mr_b peace_5

 

I genuinely hate fading a corrupt, host nation but I convinced myself that is they are just too overrated here. 

 
Captain
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Posted: #5

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Round 1Russia v Saudi Arabia DRAW +345 (risk .225%)Spain v Portugal Under 2,2.5 -126 (risk 0.557%)Argentina v Iceland DRAW +413 (risk 0.195%)Mexico v Germany Under 2.5 -105 (risk 0.512%)

Add:

S Azmoun to score +375 (risk 0.055%)

S Azmoun to score first goal +800 (risk 0.105%)

 

Believe this will be more open than most think as both teams should be after 3 points based on the group. If Iran scores, Azmoun will be involved and very likely to be the scorer. Too good of odds to pass up.

 
Veteran
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Posted: #6
Yessss i totally agree
Azmoun has played in russia for years
 
Captain
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Round 1Russia v Saudi Arabia DRAW +345 (risk .225%)Spain v Portugal Under 2,2.5 -126 (risk 0.557%)Argentina v Iceland DRAW +413 (risk 0.195%)Mexico v Germany Under 2.5 -105 (risk 0.512%)

 

Add

Nigeria to win v Croatia +453 (risk 0.180%)

 

Both teams can score with potential to leak goals. Nigeria's direct style gives them good chances to catch a team like Croatia on the counter.

 
Captain
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Posted: #8
Results
Russia v Saudi Arabia Draw +345 (risk 0.225%) LOSS
Spain v Portugal Under 2,2.5 -126 (risk 0.557%) LOSS
Argentina v Iceland Draw +413 (risk 0.195%) WIN
S Azmoun to score v Morocco +375 (risk 0.105%) LOSS
S Azmoun to score first goal v Morocco +800 (risk 0.055%) LOSS
Nigeria to win v Croatia +453 (risk 0.180%) LOSS

Record: 1-5-0 -0.317%

Pending
Mexico v Germany Under 2.5 -105 (risk 0.512%), Under 2.5 +117 (risk 0.230%)
Panama v Belgium Draw +676 (risk 0.129%)

Added a bit to Mex/Ger under based on line movements. Also adding a small play on the Pan/Bel Draw based on play style - Panama will park the bus and Belgium will have to break it down; odds are very favorable. 
 
Captain
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Posted: #9
Pending
Mexico v Germany Under 2.5 -105 (risk 0.512%), Under 2.5 +117 (risk 0.230%)
Panama v Belgium Draw +676 (risk 0.129%)
Egypt Dnb v Russia +166 (risk 0.376%)
Morocco to win v Portugal +584 (risk 0.146%)

 
Captain
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Posts: 5107
Posted: #10
Results: 2-5-0 +0.440%
Russia v Saudi Arabia Draw +345 (risk 0.225%) LOSS
Spain v Portugal Under 2,2.5 -126 (risk 0.557%) LOSS
Argentina v Iceland Draw +413 (risk 0.195%) WIN
S Azmoun to score v Morocco +375 (risk 0.105%) LOSS
S Azmoun to score first goal v Morocco +800 (risk 0.055%) LOSS
Nigeria to win v Croatia +453 (risk 0.180%) LOSS
Mexico v Germany Under 2.5 -105 (risk 0.512%), Under 2.5 +117 (risk 0.230%) WIN


Pending
Panama v Belgium Draw +676 (risk 0.129%)
Egypt Dnb v Russia +166 (risk 0.376%)
Morocco to win v Portugal +584 (risk 0.146%)
France v Peru Over 2.5 (risk 0.537%)
Croatia to win v Argentina +316 (risk 0.361%)
 
Captain
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Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Results: 2-5-0 +0.440%Russia v Saudi Arabia Draw +345 (risk 0.225%) LOSSSpain v Portugal Under 2,2.5 -126 (risk 0.557%) LOSSArgentina v Iceland Draw +413 (risk 0.195%) WINS Azmoun to score v Morocco +375 (risk 0.105%) LOSSS Azmoun to score first goal v Morocco +800 (risk 0.055%) LOSSNigeria to win v Croatia +453 (risk 0.180%) LOSSMexico v Germany Under 2.5 -105 (risk 0.512%), Under 2.5 +117 (risk 0.230%) WINPendingPanama v Belgium Draw +676 (risk 0.129%)Egypt Dnb v Russia +166 (risk 0.376%)Morocco to win v Portugal +584 (risk 0.146%)France v Peru Over 2.5 -116 (risk 0.537%)Croatia to win v Argentina +316 (risk 0.361%)

 

Add small based on line movement Egypt +330 (risk 0.113%)

Will update and summarize tonight. 

 
Captain
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Results: 2-5-0 +0.440%Russia v Saudi Arabia Draw +345 (risk 0.225%) LOSSSpain v Portugal Under 2,2.5 -126 (risk 0.557%) LOSSArgentina v Iceland Draw +413 (risk 0.195%) WINS Azmoun to score v Morocco +375 (risk 0.105%) LOSSS Azmoun to score first goal v Morocco +800 (risk 0.055%) LOSSNigeria to win v Croatia +453 (risk 0.180%) LOSSMexico v Germany Under 2.5 -105 (risk 0.512%), Under 2.5 +117 (risk 0.230%) WINPendingPanama v Belgium Draw +676 (risk 0.129%)Egypt Dnb v Russia +166 (risk 0.376%)Morocco to win v Portugal +584 (risk 0.146%)France v Peru Over 2.5 -116 (risk 0.537%)Croatia to win v Argentina +316 (risk 0.361%)
  Add small based on line movement Egypt +330 (risk 0.113%) Will update and summarize tonight.

Add:

Spain to win vs Iran -486 (to win 0.171%)

 

 

 
Captain
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Posts: 5107
Posted: #13
Results: 2-7-0 -0.178%
Russia vs Saudi Arabia Draw +345 (risk 0.225%) LOSS
Spain vs Portugal Under 2,2.5 -126 (risk 0.557%)  LOSS
Argentina vs Iceland Draw +413 (risk 0.195%) WIN
S Azmoun to score vs Morocco +375 (risk 0.105%) LOSS
S Azmoun to score first goal vs Morocco +800 (risk 0.055%) LOSS
Nigeria to win vs Croatia +453 (risk 0.180%) LOSS
Mexico vs Germany Under 2.5 -105 (risk 0.512%), Under 2.5 +117 (risk 0.230%) WIN
Panama vs Belgium Draw +676 (risk 0.129%) LOSS
Egypt Dnb vs Russia +166 (risk 0.376%), to win +330 (risk 0.113%) LOSS

Pending:
Morocco to win vs Portugal +584 (risk 0.146%)
France vs Peru Over 2.5 -115 (risk 0.537%)
Croatia to win vs Argentina +316 (risk 0.361%)
Spain to win vs Iran -486 (to win 0.171%)
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
Add

France vs Peru Over 3.5 +316 (risk 0.120%)
 
Captain
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Posted: #15

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

AddFrance vs Peru Over 3.5 +316 (risk 0.120%)

 

Add

Brazil to win vs Costa Rica -407 (to win 0.197%)

 
Captain
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Posted: #16

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

AddFrance vs Peru Over 3.5 +316 (risk 0.120%)
  Add Brazil to win vs Costa Rica -407 (to win 0.197%)

Add

Switzerland vs Serbia Draw +204 (risk 0.329%)

 
Captain
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Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 5107
Posted: #17
Results: 4-9-0 -0.171%
Russia vs Saudi Arabia Draw +345 (risk 0.225%) LOSS
Spain vs Portugal Under 2,2.5 -126 (risk 0.557%)  LOSS
Argentina vs Iceland Draw +413 (risk 0.195%) WIN
S Azmoun to score vs Morocco +375 (risk 0.105%) LOSS
S Azmoun to score first goal vs Morocco +800 (risk 0.055%) LOSS
Nigeria to win vs Croatia +453 (risk 0.180%) LOSS
Mexico vs Germany Under 2.5 -105 (risk 0.512%), Under 2.5 +117 (risk 0.230%) WIN
Panama vs Belgium Draw +676 (risk 0.129%) LOSS
Egypt Dnb vs Russia +166 (risk 0.376%), to win +330 (risk 0.113%) LOSS
Morocco to win vs Portugal +584 (risk 0.146%) LOSS
Spain to win vs Iran -486 (to win 0.171%) WIN
France vs Peru Over 2.5 -115 (risk 0.537%), Over 3.5 +316 (risk 0.120%) LOSS
Croatia to win vs Argentina +316 (risk 0.361%) WIN
 
Captain
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Posted: #18
Pending:
Switzerland vs Serbia Draw +204 (risk 0.329%)
Brazil to win vs Costa Rica -407 (to win 0.197%)
Germany to win vs Sweden -201 (to win 0.332%)
Mexico vs South Korea Draw +270 (risk 0.270%)
 
Captain
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Posts: 5107
Posted: #19

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Pending:Switzerland vs Serbia Draw +204 (risk 0.329%)Brazil to win vs Costa Rica -407 (to win 0.197%)Germany to win vs Sweden -201 (to win 0.332%)Mexico vs South Korea Draw +270 (risk 0.270%)

Panama to win vs England +1764 (risk 0.054%)

Senegal vs Japan Draw +212 (risk 0.481%)

Poland to win vs Colombia +241 (risk 0.293%)

 
Captain
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Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 5107
Posted: #20
Switzerland vs Serbia Draw +204 (risk 0.329%) LOSS
Brazil to win vs Costa Rica -407 (to win 0.197%) WIN
Germany to win vs Sweden -201 (to win 0.332%) WIN
Mexico vs South Korea Draw +270 (risk 0.270%) LOSS

Results: 6-11-9-0 -0.241%
 
Captain
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Posts: 5107
Posted: #21
Results: 6-11-0 -0.241%
 
Captain
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Posts: 5107
Posted: #22
Spain vs Morocco Under 2, 2.5 +126 (risk 0.442%)
Denmark Dnb vs France +191 (risk 0.344%)
Nigeria to win vs Argentina +557 (risk 0.152%)
Mexico to win vs Sweden +142 (risk 0.413%)

 
Captain
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Posts: 5107
Posted: #23

Panama to win vs England +1764 (risk 0.054%) LOSS

Senegal vs Japan Draw +212 (risk 0.481%) WIN

Poland to win vs Colombia +241 (risk 0.293%) LOSS


Results: 7-13-0 +0.673%

 
Captain
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Posts: 5107
Posted: #24

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Spain vs Morocco Under 2, 2.5 +126 (risk 0.442%)Denmark Dnb vs France +191 (risk 0.344%)Nigeria to win vs Argentina +557 (risk 0.152%)Mexico to win vs Sweden +142 (risk 0.413%)

Add:

Spain vs Morocco Under 2, 2.5 +163 (risk 0.190%)

 
 
 
Captain
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Posts: 5107
Posted: #25

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Spain vs Morocco Under 2, 2.5 +126 (risk 0.442%)Denmark Dnb vs France +191 (risk 0.344%)Nigeria to win vs Argentina +557 (risk 0.152%)Mexico to win vs Sweden +142 (risk 0.413%)
Add: Spain vs Morocco Under 2, 2.5 +163 (risk 0.190%)

Add

Serbia to win vs Brazil +607 (risk 0.141%)

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