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World Cup 2018 Dogs, Darts , and Dunks

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Posted: #26

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Spain vs Morocco Under 2, 2.5 +126 (risk 0.442%)Denmark Dnb vs France +191 (risk 0.344%)Nigeria to win vs Argentina +557 (risk 0.152%)Mexico to win vs Sweden +142 (risk 0.413%)

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Denmark Dnb +238 vs France (risk 0.148%)

 
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Spain vs Morocco Under 2, 2.5 +126 (risk 0.442%)Denmark Dnb vs France +191 (risk 0.344%)Nigeria to win vs Argentina +557 (risk 0.152%)Mexico to win vs Sweden +142 (risk 0.413%)
Add Denmark Dnb +238 vs France (risk 0.148%)

Japan vs Poland Draw +222 (risk 0.311%)

Senegal to win vs Colombia +362 (risk 0.217%)

 
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Posted: #28

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Spain vs Morocco Under 2, 2.5 +126 (risk 0.442%)Denmark Dnb vs France +191 (risk 0.344%)Nigeria to win vs Argentina +557 (risk 0.152%)Mexico to win vs Sweden +142 (risk 0.413%)
Add: Spain vs Morocco Under 2, 2.5 +163 (risk 0.190%)
Add Serbia to win vs Brazil +607 (risk 0.141%)

 

Add +655 (risk 0.062%)

 
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Posted: #29

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Spain vs Morocco Under 2, 2.5 +126 (risk 0.442%)Denmark Dnb vs France +191 (risk 0.344%)Nigeria to win vs Argentina +557 (risk 0.152%)Mexico to win vs Sweden +142 (risk 0.413%)
Add Denmark Dnb +238 vs France (risk 0.148%)
Japan vs Poland Draw +222 (risk 0.311%) Senegal to win vs Colombia +362 (risk 0.217%)

 

Add Senegal +418 (0.097%)

 
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Posted: #30

Short writeups for the knockout phase.....

France has looked dangerous and while I dont see them winning the tournament, I dont see them getting hung up by Argentina. Might be worth taking a flier on some lines laying more goals because if Argentina is behind it could get ugly. France to win vs Argentina +147 (risk 0.810%) France -1.5 vs Argentina +439 (risk 0.093%)

Small play on two fairly equal teams. Portugal is well organized but not as strong as Uruguay who I believe have the best front line in the tournament. Whie a borefest draw is a possibility, i dont see Uruguay not at least getting to extra time. Uruguay pk, +0.5 vs Portugal -164 (to win 0.379%)

Spain have the firepower and have looked scary going forward as seen by their 3 goals against Portugal. But, their defense has been poor. Russia is not on their level but theyve put the ball in the net and at home I think they are a live dog. Russia to win vs Spain +611 (risk 0.211%)

 

 
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Posted: #31

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Short writeups for the knockout phase..... France has looked dangerous and while I dont see them winning the tournament, I dont see them getting hung up by Argentina. Might be worth taking a flier on some lines laying more goals because if Argentina is behind it could get ugly. France to win vs Argentina +147 (risk 0.810%) France -1.5 vs Argentina +439 (risk 0.093%) Small play on two fairly equal teams. Portugal is well organized but not as strong as Uruguay who I believe have the best front line in the tournament. Whie a borefest draw is a possibility, i dont see Uruguay not at least getting to extra time. Uruguay pk, +0.5 vs Portugal -164 (to win 0.379%) Spain have the firepower and have looked scary going forward as seen by their 3 goals against Portugal. But, their defense has been poor. Russia is not on their level but theyve put the ball in the net and at home I think they are a live dog. Russia to win vs Spain +611 (risk 0.211%)

Croatia has been the class of the tournament thus far. Not taking anything away from them but the opponents have been subpar if you look back. Denmark is solid and will be a new challenge. I think Croatia ultimately progresses but there is a good chance of a slow paced, low scoring match. Croatia vs Denmark Draw +243 (risk 0.292%)

 
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Posted: #32
Russia to finish last in Group A +1030 LOSE 0.177
Russia to NOT advance from Group A +205 LOSE 0.328
Spain to advance from Group B -1110 WIN 0.083
Argentina to finish last in Group D +1800 LOSE 0.053
Argentina to NOT advance from Group D +535 LOSE 0.157
Argentina to NOT reach quarterfinal +125 WIN 0.556
Argentina to NOT reach final -515 WIN 0.163
Switzerland to finish last in Group E +350 LOSE 0.222
South Korea lowest scoring team in the World Cup +1200 LOSE 0.077
Panama to advance from Group G +995 LOSE 0.136
Colombia to finish last in Group H +660 LOSE 0.197
Colombia to NOT advance from Group H +225 LOSE 0.154

Futures: 3-9-0 -0.699%
 
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Posted: #33
Results
Spain vs Morocco Under 2, 2.5 +126, +163 (add) LOSE 0.632
Denmark Dnb vs France +191, +238 (add) PUSH
Nigeria to win vs Argentina +557 LOSE 0.152
Mexico to win vs Sweden +142 LOSE 0.413
Serbia to win vs Brazil +607, +655 (add) LOSE 0.203
Japan vs Poland Draw +222 WIN 0.699
Senegal to win vs Colombia +362, +418 (add) LOSE 0.314
France to win vs Argentina +147 WIN 1.190
France -1.5 vs Argentina +439 LOSE 0.093
Uruguay pk, +0.5 vs Portgual -164 WIN 0.379
Russia to win vs Spain +611 LOSE 0.211
Croatia vs Denmark Draw +243 WIN 0.708

4-7-1 +0.958


Updated Record: 14-29-1 +0.932%

Will have Monday/Tuesday picks up later tonight 
 
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Posted: #34
Tomorrow feels square.....

Mexico received a lot of praise for their clinical win against Germany and subsequent win against South Korea. Then they got run over by Sweden. Looking back, they seemed to give up a lot of opportunities to both Germany and a poor South Korea team. I think there is a very good chance that Brazil opens them up. We know they will sit back and try to counter attack and that strategy may work. But, if Brazil is hitting on all cylinders it could get ugly. I will take a dart to cover me against a 0-0 or 0-1 upset. Brazil -2.5 vs Mexico +396 (risk 0.202%)

Belgium have looked great this tournament. I won't give too much credence to their exhibition match against England but they ripped apart both Panama and Tunisia. While that isn't saying too much, I'm not sure that Japan is in a different weight class from those two teams. Ignoring their match against Colombia (which has to have an asterisks next to it from a capping standpoint), they have been poor. I am willing to lay a goal here because of their proven firepower but would also be fine with the money line. Belgium -1 vs Japan -163 (to win 0.380%) and Belgium -1.5 vs Japan +119 (risk 0.228%)



 
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Posted: #35
Results
Brazil -2.5 vs Mexico +396 LOSE 0.202
Belgium -1 vs Japan -163 PUSH
Belgium -1.5 vs Japan +119 LOSE 0.228

0-2-1 -0.430


Updated Record: 14-31-2 +0.502%
 
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Posted: #36
Sweden and Switzerland is truly a toss up in my eyes. Sweden were impressive (and unlucky) against Germany while convincingly winning two other matches. Switzerland eeked out a draw against Brazil and then managed two other good results to get through. I can't imagine either team having a cutting edge to beat the other and actually think a draw and ET/PK is likely. But, the value isn't there on that line alone. On an evenly matched game I think you have to take the better value at small stake. Sweden pk, +0.5 vs Switzerland -193 (to win 0.413%)

I lean heavily toward Colombia on the late game as a value play but going to wait and see what other betting options I can get. James in the lineup will strongly influence the angle I decide to take. If he plays I think I will play a more conservative angle because he allows a more even playing field. If he doesn't, I will imagine a more counter-attacking style which could affect thegame in a different way. More to follow...
 
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Posted: #37

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Sweden and Switzerland is truly a toss up in my eyes. Sweden were impressive (and unlucky) against Germany while convincingly winning two other matches. Switzerland eeked out a draw against Brazil and then managed two other good results to get through. I can't imagine either team having a cutting edge to beat the other and actually think a draw and ET/PK is likely. But, the value isn't there on that line alone. On an evenly matched game I think you have to take the better value at small stake. Sweden pk, +0.5 vs Switzerland -193 (to win 0.413%)

Add

Sweden +0.5 vs Switzerland -175 (to win 0.182%)

 
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Posted: #38
I am not a believer in England here and think they are just too short here. They handled their business against Panama and Tunisia but have not really proven anything yet. I will completely discard the game against Belgium. But, Colombia are just too dangerous to take the value play. While it should be a tighter game, I do think there can be goals here which is why I am okay taking this play outright. England has conceded in all 3 matches so far. Colombia to win vs England +311 (risk 0.243%)

I may add a small play on Falcao to score but will wait for lineups...
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

I am not a believer in England here and think they are just too short here. They handled their business against Panama and Tunisia but have not really proven anything yet. I will completely discard the game against Belgium. But, Colombia are just too dangerous to take the value play. While it should be a tighter game, I do think there can be goals here which is why I am okay taking this play outright. England has conceded in all 3 matches so far. Colombia to win vs England +311 (risk 0.243%)

I may add a small play on Falcao to score but will wait for lineups...

Add
Carlos Bacca to score first goal vs England +850 (risk 0.053%)

A likely push (must be on the field prior to first goal being scored) but I like the odds. In other words, if he comes on late when its 0-0 I'll take +850. Falcao odds are just too short considering the odds for the game. 
 
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Posted: #40
Results
Sweden pk, +0.5 vs Switzerland -193, +0.5 -175 (add) WIN 0.595
Colombia to win vs England +311 LOSE 0.243
Carlos Bacca to score first goal vs England +850 PUSH

1-1-1 +0.352


Updated Record: 15-32-3 +0.854%
 
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Posted: #41
France have shown a very good ability going forward this tournament. Yes, they drew a snore fest 0-0 match against Denmark but I am choosing to ignore it based on the circumstances that a draw saw both teams through. Against Peru, Australia, and especially Argentina they looked extremely dangerous with the ability to score goals. Uruguay have also scored in each of their matches and have deadly goal scorers going forward. Cavani being out is definitely affecting this line but it is interesting to note that the 3 matches in CONMEBOL qualifying without him, they scored 2, 2, and 3 goals. Bottom line, as square as it feels I am expecting goals. This may start as a cagey affair but 1 goal will open it up. France vs Uruguay Over 2, 2.5 +143 (risk 0.412%)
 
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Posted: #42
Brazil have looked good not great thus far in the tournament. The best team they've faced thus far, Switzerland, they struggled to express themselves as the better team. Mexico made the game very open, which was surprising, and Brazil was able to score goals and shut the game down. Belgium is a step up in competition. While the simple analysis is they were lucky to get past Japan, the reality is they did outplay them for most of the match. This is by far their biggest test so far in this tournament. I expect a good match between these two and just think Brazil is too short. I like the underdogs here and would even consider them outright but think there is a good chance at the draw. Belgium dnb vs Brazil +164 (risk 0.379%)
 
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Posted: #43
England have done everything they've need to thus far in the tournament. You can throw out the Belgium game and, in fairness, probably throw out Tunisia and Panama due to lack of quality. The Colombia game they clearly bossed possession but really did not have that cutting edge to score - their goal came on a fairly weak penalty kick. England's biggest strength is their strength and size, as seen by the number of set piece & penalty kick goals they've scored. Sweden bring an interesting counter to that as they will not concede much size or strength to England. Similar to how they played against Switzerland, I expect Sweden to sit back and let England have possession but make it very difficult for them to score. There is no way I can justify England being even money or better to win in 90 minutes and certainly can't back Sweden. This is a larger play for me and I may add a small play on the 0-0 draw closer to game time. England vs Sweden Draw +237 (risk 0.594%)
 
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Posted: #44
Russia have been one of the surprises of the tournament so far, and kudos to them. The park the bus against Spain worked to perfection. The problem I see in their match-up against Croatia is that unlike Spain, they are willing to play more direct. That is the style that is usually more effective against a defensive setup and, if they choose to park the bus again, I think they will be beat. Yet, if they come out and try to play with Croatia I also see them having issues because of the quality in midfield. Long story short is Croatia have the tactical and talent advantage and should end Cinderella's run. Croatia to win vs Russia +125 (risk 0.444%)
 
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Posted: #45
This is going to seem like a square play but I think its a smart place to put some money. Kane has 6 goals scored right now with Lukaku at 4, Mbappe at 3, and a lot of other  players at 2 or less. I don't any likely scenarios that Kane doesn't get at least a share of this as he takes all penalties for England (which the same is not true of Lukaku or Mbappe) and has a good lead already. Harry Kane to win Golden Boot -280 (to win 0.263%)

 
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Posted: #46
Arkadymo

Your thread is a daily read for me. Best of luck in the Round of 8
 
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Posted: #47
Great write ups Ark.

Good luck on your plays!
 
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Posted: #48
Not a lot of time for writeups or summarizing records - will try to get to it soon (probably just above break even)

Short story in France/Belgium is I see goals. Both teams are deadly and clinical in space. Taking a slightly different angle though...

France v Belgium Over 2.5, 3 +138 (risk 0.210%)
Lukaku to score anytime vs France +230 (0.091%) 
Hazard to score anytime vs France +295 (risk 0.076%)
Mbappe to score anytime vs Belgium +255 (risk 0.085%)
Griezmann to score anytime vs Belgium +200 (risk 0.100%)

 
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Posted: #49
Bigger play for me but no time. Croatia are much better than England, who in my opinion, are false favorites. The results and level of opponents for each are very different so...

Croatia to win vs England +266 (risk 0.544%)
 
 
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Posted: #50
Croatia has been the biggest surprise of the tournament - they have been awesome. Its really unfortunate theyve had to play SO much soccer. France is just not the type of team you can beat on tired legs. It seems square but I just only see one result tomorrow so going fairly big for me. France to win vs Croatia -104 (to win 0.971%)
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