1) I make entirely too many plays. After 11 days of 2024, I am at 112 bets. Now in fairness, most of my plays are stat model indicated then subjectively vetted so I am not flying blind. For me there is no game of the year, 5 star play, etc. A play is a play and they all count the same. So, if it is stat model indicated and passes all the other checks (injuries, form, home / away, line movement, the fabled public / non public) I am going to play it.
2) I think I am done with NFL and almost done with college. For me the running clock is a huge house edge (for most). Long ago on Covers someone posted "life is too short to take the under". I agree. While statistically the much better play with the running clock, I just cannot do it. When I do, it is the worst kind of sweat. So, while fruitful for some I think I'd rather make money elsewhere and just enjoy it for what it is "Sports Entertainment"
3) 86.15 % of youtube sports betting influencers are not bright. I wish I possessed the technical prowess, time, and patience to do a channel.
4) My personal point of emphasis, never let the book set your line. Create a stat model or pay someone who can. If you can afford, pay for multiple models. Then when a game stands out on two of your models (New Orelans vs. Golden State) you smash it. My sheet had NO -11, so I play NO -7 for +175. Most of us are convinced that -110 is good, it is not over the long run for most (trying to cover my Van basis here).
So the numbers for the first 11 days:
53 wins / 51 losses / 8 pushes (51.%) +46.69 units and 35.5% return
NFL: 7 wins / 10 losses (41.2 %) +7.96 units and 26.6% return
NCAAF: 5 wins / 6 losses (45.5%) +15.24 units and 73.5% return
NCAAB: 14 wins / 15 losses (48.3%) +.04 units and .2% return
NBA: 10 wins / 8 Losses (55.6%) +2.45 units and 16.8 % return
NHL: 14 wins / 7 losses (66.7 %) +20.60 units and 52.7 % return
Soccer: 3 wins / 1 loss (75%) +4.25 units and 40 % return
*average odds of winning bets +131. Average odds of all bets +150.
5) IF you're not tracking your bets and tracking them honestly, you have lost before you've even begun. You may not like the results, but you will learn you strengths / weaknesses to adjust and come back stronger. If you can slow or stop your biggest losing variable (Live betting for me) you'll come out miles ahead.
BOL to the forum. Sometimes we spar and quarrel but it is mostly always in good fun and the advancement of our quest to enjoy yachts and escorts courtesy of the book. Health and Wealth to all.
Hot Forum Topics
