Advanced Analytics

hey guys,

every bettor has his own strategy. he picks his own ways to decide which side to wager on.

i am trying to get some advanced analytics going, so i would love your input. what stats, trends, or other intangibles matter to you when picking a spread, ml or totals, in any of your favourite sports? what would you like to see in terms of stats and analytics that would help you see things more clear?

any comments are welcome.

Would be nice to see how lines have moved off their openers at the various books.  Covers has this in tabular form under Line History on the matchup page - would be super easy to graph this instead of those ugly tables that are hard to read and nearly impossible to align (the important part).

my strategy is to wait for a losing streak in long season sports of 8 games and more and a winning streak of 8 games or more and I bet against the winning streak and with the loser on a losing streak , for under and overs inplay after the 2nd quarter and use the formuala below

over under formula to find correct total 

take  current score of game (Divide ) by ( TIME ) played, take answer and multiply by (time) left in game add the multiplied number to the current total and you have the running total if you is high than what the book is saying take it over.

I bet mostly MLB and NBA and the vast majority of my bets are live in game.  But I do find occassional pre-game spots that I really like.  For MLB, I look hard at the starting pitchers WHIP in a particular matchup.  If you find a game where both starting pitchers have a high WHIP (>1.30), then you start to have an angle.  Then look at how those teams hit against those pitchers throwing hands.  If those averages are both above .310, then you can look hard at a play on the F5 over.  Similar plays can be made live against teams that have terrible bullpens. 

Also, I look hard at over plays and ML plays (depending on the lines of course) where teams have combined for less than 2/3 of the expected runs by the 7th, where the home team is behind and was a pre-game favorite.  Sometimes you can find a great play on the over and/or home team and the home team comes back to win in the last couple of innings, pushing the game over the line you got live.  Also live, if you find a spot where the teams have combined for a lot of hits but not a lot of runs, take a hard look at the over.  On average over a season, the number of runs scored in an MLB game is usually about half of what the total hits are.  If you have a game that started out with an OU of 8.5, and the scored is tied 1-1 in the 5th and the teams have combined for 10 hits and you can get the over at 5.5, take it.