CRYPTO

100K btc incoming 

100K is right around the corner 

@vanzack

 There is so much money flying into crypto. It’s mind boggling

3.23 Trillion as of this point.  Expected to be 4 plus in the next couple weeks and close to 5 by years end ..  

and MSTR is still blowing up

Short sale mammoth Citron put out a hit piece on MSTR today about how far the stock is valued away from the equity they own in BTC, thus the sell off after the morning bump.

They are right but it is likely the drop will not last all that long IF BTC keeps moving up as it is.

@wallstreetcappers

yeah , just noticed it was a morning bump. I spoke too soon . I'm going to look up the hit piece by Citron that you're talking about.

@ZiggyDawg

 Pretty much its just based on my comments above and what Van referenced that the market cap is worth much more than the equity in their BTC holdings and it is not a very efficient vehicle to own for just BTC value but it is a momentum mover and has a higher beta than BTC itself. If someone wants BTC pure and simple the best play is IBIT to me as their expense ratio is low and it is just a ETF holding BTC nothing else.

Blew up, then blew down.

Crazy day.

BTC up, MSTR way down.

I am too lazy there has to be a source of the market cap value of BTC based on their equity in the holdings. I will have to poke around and find out. I would have to bet that the market cap of the stock is likely 3x what the value of the BTC is.

Quick look my estimate is pretty close. They have 330k or so of the BTC and their average price is allegedly 50k now so their equity is 50% of the price and looks like the ratio of equity to market cap is about 3x. More likely fair value is more like 1.5x so potentially it could drop more.

"Volatility is vitality for MSTR" Michael Saylor

It took me a while to understand this, and I think I do - but still not 100%...

If the stock goes up...  Of course this is what the company and shareholders want and benefit from.  But it also makes the selling of convertible bonds more attractive.  Nobody wants to buy a convertible bond on something that is flat - because the chances of converting are so small.  But something that has wild swings in stock price is very attractive because the upswings can be converted.

If the stock goes down....  MSTR can issue convertible bonds and "ATM" at the money stock sales to generate cash to buy more btc, which increases BTC per share and stock price.

It is actually pretty amazing.

Please help me understand this better if I got something wrong.

I consider ATMs more toxic than convertibles because they immediately dilute the common holder the moment the company sells shares. Converts might take 2-3-4-5 years until conversion so while the end result might be the same the duration for when the dilution takes place is longer. ATMs are also sneaky the company can use them and the shareholder might not even know until either the company discloses it or they have an earnings report and admit how many shares are outstanding. 

It would be interesting to dig out all the convert prices since MSTR has been converting for a LONG TIME. I have to think some of those earlier converts are massively deep in the money since they had a stock split and all it is likely some of the early converts might be in the like 50 buck range or lower. I could find out but I dunno I am a lazy investor and since I dont have any MSTR now I am not hunting.

I think what Mike is inferring is that having interest in the stock means there is motivation and demand for the debt too so a stock that has less implied potential upside will have less ability to float debt and especially at decent terms.

Here is the chance to get into CRYPTO !!

This is the time to buy buy buy 

these chances will be far and few pretty soon .. until the cycle is over.  

No one can predict the future and let me be clear , I’m no financial guru so do YOU but crypto is a great opportunity to change your life.  Stay away from all the crap coins , yes the ones talked about in this thread can go to zero in the future BUT they are “safe”.  We may not make the 100x gains as some of the upstarts but you can also go to sleep at night not having to worry if you will be at zero tomorrow.   

One of the most common things I hear from people after I help them at the poker room start up in crypto is “ man I just put in money now I’m down “….lololol.  It’s not funny but it’s the way it goes.  There will be ups and downs through the journey but I tell them all the same thing.  You do NOT lose until you sell. Just sit on it and HOLD. Do NOT look at your balances until you “have” to.  It WILL go up.  Take profits along the way and you will be just fine.  Or just hold it all until Q2 of 2025

If you don’t want the added risk of alt coins then at very least invest in BTC and ETH.  It’s a no brainer folks !! It’s down right now.  It’s time 

PEPE 

Will change the world soon.  It changed my life and it continues now !!!

Im seeing the writing on the wall. The amount of volume this coin is getting is INSANE .. 

Very bold statement that I just said but I wanted it in writing when we look back in 4-6months !! I’ve never seen this much hype and volume in something since DOGE coin start.  Just take a look at the “searches” and trading volumes.  It will flip shiba in a matter of weeks and it only trails King DOGE in meme 24hr volumes.  Its wild 

@superbeets

It's not too late to get into PEPE ?

7B market cap thats right about the same as Marathon Digital

I bought some PEPE. Just my FOMO ( fear of missing out ) syndrome. Let's go PEPE !

@ZiggyDawg

 It’s never too late ..  I roll profits from other coins into it daily or every other day or every few depending on market. 

It’s perfect time now.  Always buy on RED if you want to get in.  Obviously the return X will not be the same as people who got in the millions BUT you just want a gain at end of day… and I will be shocked if it doesn’t do a 5x to 10x from here.  Some people are saying the realistic numbers are 20x plus but I’m more on cautious side.  

My advise is to look at it for a month or so. 

Once ETH pops , Pepe will fly !!! It’s the golden child of the chain.  Shiba is still king until it’s taken from them.. we will see 

Let me know what bank can do a 98% return in a month or a 135% in 3 months or better yet a 1500% (15x) in past year .. Pepe did 

you sound like you are spread out good so just keep it in that loop ..you will have a good month to accumulate more IMO.  Then it will be too high to buy IMO unless it’s a short term in and out with a large amount of money.  

@wallstreetcappers

 Wild huh .. look back in a month or two from now and the MC will be 20-30plus Billion..  I’ve tried to convince myself so many times to take my nest egg out and roll into BTC but the buzz is so crazy with Pepe .. only thing that has been close to this is the DOGE craziness !!! Plus I’m DCA in the hundreds of millions so it would be crazy to leave now .. just my opinion.  There are others that will make a lot more but the risk is too much for me. I like to sleep not worry 

@ZiggyDawg

 One thing I will say or recommend is DCA ( dollar cost avg) into coins .. so let’s say you want to contribute $10 ( example ).  Go $2-3 today and see where it goes if it goes down more then do another 2-3.. when it’s rising , ideally you want to stay away unless you can time it on the jump.. maybe a new listing .etc .. etc.. sometimes this strategy doesn’t work but with large MCs you will have time to get in good .. only time a full investment should be thrown at it is if you know it’s hit the floor and that’s hard to do with crypto 

Again I’m  not a financial advisor.  Do you and what’s best for you 

Thanks Superbeets.

@ZiggyDawg

 Nice little return if you got in yesterday.  Think it’s up 7-9% so far today.  

Im a buyer so I want it to go dowm 

We will get resistance at the 20 mark..  Pepe is doing real good today. Selfishly I want it to not hold and drop but if it can hold that resistance , then it will be new floor for a bit IMO..I haven’t been able to roll any profits into it today so mainly been moving to USDC..  coins are too high today.  May cool down tomorrow or Black Friday my only hope.  

when I say this obviously I want them to break the bank BUT I KNOW what the end goal should/will be so I want to accumulate as much as possible before !!!  These price jumps hurt me 

Happy Thanksgiving to all ! Let the profits keep rolling !

@ZiggyDawg

 U2 brother 

Happy Turkey day folks !!!!

You are getting a “semi” discount on on non BTC today…. Buy small since price is a tad high. It still good DCA value