French Presidential Election

Just went to predictit.com and bought Marine Le Pen to win at 18 cents per share.

Now, this is not like the Trump play......this is trading. I like an entry point of 18cents.....I look for slack in European equities as the week moves on....this will be a sign of uncertainty regarding the "sure thing" election of Macron. Should get a bump up into the mid 20s to low 30s by Friday...at which point I will reevaluate...if I get a 2/1 return then that is fine by me.

Remember, Macron is an investment banker....that will not sit well with the far left in France. Look for low turnouts here and a growing perception of a possible Le Pen upset.

Like I said, I am not a French election expert....but the current wave of successful nationalist candidates will make this thing look to be a horserace....and that is all I need.

Exactly my point......Macron does nothing to appeal to the far left...they will likely stay home. You will see the right rally over immigration and possible exit from the EU....Macron will have only establishment types on his side.

The French dynamic is interesting...they run 2 rounds of elections, and last round dropped 2 candidates. I contest that in a pure 1:1 matchup, without the other candidates splitting the vote, we are likely to have an unpredictable result.

If I can cash out Saturday night with a good price, I will certainly take the money. If not.....let it ride.

Right now the DAX is rallying, as is the CAC40.......European equities are telling us the Macron has already won....

Tommorrow's market will be huge...I like a sell off to close the session.....if the institutions go home long then I will begin to look for the door.

Right now Le Pen is holding at 18c, after 3 separate bumps to 20.....post debate reviews were good, but it just doesn't seem to matter. If she wins, it will be a bigger upset than Trump in my mind.

Hey vern I sent you a PM

BOL with your bet

I hear you on the equities rally before Brexit...but these guys going home long over the weekend is a big deal to me...I realize that those indices don't open limit up or down like futures do, but their open could be devastating to some idiot who decided not to cash out when he could.....

Gold will certainly rally on Le Pen....but there are some serious players keeping crude depressed...I trade WTI Crude futures every day. That market is stagnate--good volumes, but tight daily ranges. I believe my range oscillator the other day was 105 (projected range)....I remember during Arab spring when it was 379.

The oil market has fundamentally changed...supply and demand is the same as it has been for the last 5 years....I mean the actual trading operations have changed.

Well, there she blows.......

We have traded between 18-20c all week long...both the FDAX and CAC40 closed up today, and price dropped immediately to 16c.

So, this thing is going to tank. I look for 10-12 by vote time......if early exit polls are surprising, then I will get a bump, but this is a dead fish right now, and I am likely going to ride the storm out. No easy money here...

FWIW, take look what has happened this week:

1) Emergency meeting at Buckingham palace in London. Participants say it was "extremely unusual."

2) Le Pen goes on offense in the debate...not unlike Trump in debate #2......"No matter what happens in this election, France will be led by a woman--either me or Merkel."

3) Polling data continues to tighten, but is still 70/30 Macron

4) Last night Obama gave his official endorsement to Macron. Video is up on youtube.

5) International equities close way up for the week.

So, it looks like there is a chance here, but the market action today did not go as I thought. Very happy I did not sell binaries last nigh

Dear France:

When the muslims come and set up sharia courts/sharia law and your women die their hair dark so they don't get raped....Don't think you're coming to America as refugees