Posted:
#1
Might have some Santa Anita picks later.
GL to All!
RACE 6: 6 - VINTAGE MATTERS. This looks like a two horse race to me. I'd be surprised if someone else besides the 6 or 7 won, and going with the 6 I wouldn't be the slightest surprised if the 7 INHERITTHEWIND runs great and beats me. My main reason for going with VINTAGE MATTERS is that to me, it just doesn't look like Casse has the 7 ready to fire huge today, which is what it will take to beat the 6. I don't like his works coming into this, the time or the spacing, and although he will clearly end up being the best horse in this race, I'm gonna bet that he isnt the best horse today. I'm gonna take a stand that this is a good race for the 7 to move forward with, whereas the 6 is surely going to be firing his best effort off this layoff with Johnny V coming back for Mike Dickinson. He doesn't have many horses in his barn, and I trust that he put alot of TLC into improving this one over the winter. Vintage Matters also had a very wide trip in his last and still needed an unlucky photo to lose. The price should be much better on the 6 as well.
RACE 7: 8 - CARBON DATA/12 - KARMA DELIGHT. This is a very salty open maiden field that has my close eye, as these are the types that develop into key races. After taking a good hard look at this field, I'm left with one word; CHAD. The guys a machine and I believe that one of his two will prove best. Carbon Data has been a little bit of a late bloomer but I really think he started to figure things out down the stretch of his last race, and despite being very tight on the rail for a second time starter he was still coming best of all late with clearly the most energy. Javy returns and he should sit a nice forwardly placed tactical spot. He's worked very steady since and I think a big improvement is in store today. I don't see a ton of early speed, but a couple of the first turfers could show lick as well as the 6. The 12 KARMA DELIGHT, the other Chad Brown entry, is the first turfer that scares me the most if there happens to be a quick enough pace for the closers. This one has big time turf pedigree and was a 400k purchase. Looks like they tried to get him on turf first out, but wasn't able. Then a run on the inner and his last in Gulfstream he was totally sandwiched at the start and still made up some good ground against a nice field of dirt horses including a very talented Pletcher horse The Big Fundamental. If this thing gets some pace to run into and translates this ability to turf, he could be a handful. Need to rely on Joel getting in a good spot from that outside post before the first turn. Some other underneath horses for exotics are the 6 ANY QUESTIONS and the 9 IM THE CAPTAIN NOW, who both came out of probably the best race of the group against Yoshida at Keeneland. Also, if you see a fast pace, watch 10 BUSHMILL'S LEGEND and 4 BROOKLINE coming underneath late at a huge price.
RACE 9: 9 - PORTANDO. I see this horse potentially being much the best stepping on turf for the first time. With a lot of scratches bringing the field to 6, and Snake Oil Charlie is in here so really it's 5. PORTANDO looks to be in very sharp form, and this 7f distance seems to be ideal. He has plenty of turf sprint pedigree on the dam side, and I like the outside post for the forwardly placed horse that should be near the lead. For his competition, the 1 is facing tougher than in his last where he couldn't get the job done after leading as even money fav, but gets the blinkers off and was wide throughout in his last as well as being freshened first off the claim. Definitely an underneath choice and use defensively, but the fact he was claimed from Mike Maker who trains PORTANDO makes me feel confident he knows what he's up against. The 2 is tough to trust breaking clean, and maybe the extra distance will help but this isn't a Fairgrounds horse I want to back. The 3 couldn't even win his first turf effort where he had it all his way, and then got scorched against much better at Keeneland in last. Very capable, but not much confidence shown by Mott to drop for a tag. The 5 is tough to love going on turf when Chad Brown didn't like him there and now we're asking a dirt trainer in Rudy Rod to get the job done. All in all, if the 9 takes to the footing and retains his current form, I think he should be the winner.
GRADE A:
RACE 6:
WIN: 6 - VINTAGE MATTERS
TRIFECTA: 6/1,4,7,10/1,4,7,10
EXACTA(backup bet): 7/6
GRADE B:
RACE 7:
WIN: 8 - CARBON DATA
WIN/PLACE(smaller): 12 - KARMA DELIGHT
EXACTA BOX: 8,12
EXACTA: 8/2,6,9,10,12
RACE 9:
WIN: 9 - PORTANDO
EXACTA BOX: 1,9
SEQUENCES:
RACE 6 PICK 4:
6,7/8,12/1,2,3,5/1,3,9 $24
6/2,6,8,9,10,12/1,2,,3,5/1,3,9 $36
DOUBLE: 6/8,10,12
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