Commanding Curve

I went back and watched some of his other races and looked at his PPs.

People are hyping him because of how he finished the Derby, but take that race away, and nothing suggests big closer AND nothing in his breeding suggests the same.

Thoughts?

So is your support of (the other) CC because of the layoff or derby race?

There have been a number of horses over the years who ran a decent out of nowhere Derby race only to subsequently disappoint later. Golden Soul is one (although that may be a result of the track), Dullahan is another (although he did later win the Pacific Classic, but he wasn't great in his few races after the Derby).

I think Curve is this years version.

I would be shocked if Curve was better than 10-1.

I (roughly) see as follows:

Chrome 3/5-4/5

ROC- 5-1

Tonalist/Wicked Strong - 8-1/10-1-1

Curve - 13-1

Quote Originally Posted by Greyhound:

Was it really out of nowhere?    I saw TygerMyke and VetDrm mentioning that they liked the horse in the Fairgrounds races.    I definitely thought he had a chance in the KY Derby to at least hit the money for the reasons I stated above plus he likes Churchill, although I never posted that on here.   I don't think he came out of nowhere.

I know everybody when handicapping wants to see good race after good race, but all it takes is one good past performance for a horse to show you his talent.    And when those horses win they usually pay a lot more than the horses with all the good races.

He liked Churchill, that's true, but I never expected that race from him. I think that was my point, that every year it seems, someone finishes in the top 4 in the Derby who is subsequently overbet the next few races as a result (Golden Soul, Dull, and the horse I couldn't remember from a few years ago, Ice Box).

I think Curve is that horse, who will be about the 4th -5th betting choice and finish long out of money.

What do you think his odds should be? What do you think they will be?

Sometimes they can be different. I think Tonalist and ROC will be the overbet horses with people trying to find a horse to beat CC.

I think Tonalist should be 10-1 but I think he will more likely be 8-1.

I think ROC should be 12-1 as he never really gained ground on CC in a shorter stretch in a weak field, but I think he will be about 5-1.

The only way that Curve is 4-1 is if Chrome, Tonalist, ROC, and Wicked Strong all scratch.

You should watch the last furlong of the Preakness. ROC wasn't going by CC if they went around five more times.