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Commanding Curve

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Posted: #26
I understand that Curve finished 2nd in the Derby and ran a good race but he isn't even a top 5 horse in the projected field IMO. People seem to overlook the fact that his best races have been at CD.
4-1 on him would be absolutely ridiculous but I hope your right. Bigger odds on better horses
 
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Posted: #27

I think CommCurve is a fine horse. He came from 18th place in the Derby, but passed a whole bunch of dead ones. Not to say he can't be a contender.....

Right now, my research is centering on SAMRAAT. I think we'll get 20-1 on a horse who looks to me to be ready to rumble at the added distance. Both he and Metal Count got slammed in the Derby and I have to think with cleaner trips each has a fighter's chance.

 
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Posted: #28
Mikey, love your analysis and writeups.  I am not really sure how Commanding Curve will run - I have seen it both ways where horse that was visually impressive in the Derby and skips the Preakness run well in the Belmont, although it does look to me more like he was passing tired horses, but seems more often horses who perhaps had excuses who are fresher (again skipping the Preakness) do well in the mile and a half, especially if breeding suggests they could.  I really liked Medal Count in the Derby and I think he will run big at the Belmont (yes, at long odds). Commanding Curve's close was noticed by noticed by everyone and will get lots of $ bet on him because of it, but if he is below 10-1, it's not value to me.  I would leave in the exotics, but not key off of him.  Mikey, I do like Samraat, but I am concerned he could caught up in the early pace.  Your opinion on this could sway me either way!
 
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Posted: #29
In regards to Samraat, I'd be careful I heard that the management and owner of My Meadowview Stables wanted to wait til Saratoga to run Samraat again. But Violette convinced the owner to run, do what you want with the information.
 
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Posted: #30

Howz and Angry...good points about Samraat. My concerns are the same as yours. Hung up in a fast early pace; distance challenge, etc.

That said, I am very curious, if he runs, to cap his distance capability. Let's talk Wed./Thursday

 
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Posted: #31
Curve should be 15 to 1 at best.  Hope like hell he is 5 or 6 to 1, means my long shots will have better value.  Curve will not hit the board.  Very intrigued by samaraat and medal count
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:

The two deep closers in the Derby were Danza and Curve.  Commanding Curve having a better late speed acceleration but Danza having a better early speed.  

The best early speed and late speed was Chrome, the only way he was losing the derby was a bad trip.  

Since the pace was slow in the Derby, Commanding Curve was able to stay on pace and step on it fast in the stretch.   Danza may have been ahead but he had that troubled trip before accelerating.  

The pace was slow in the derby because all the speed horse jockey's wanted the same spot, sit behind the leaders and close.  

I think the Belmont  will be a slow pace like the Derby, with a lot of speed coming back.  With the longer run nobody wants to be in front and slow down towards the stretch.  

That being said, if it is a slow pace, I think Commanding Curve can easily get in the top 3 and possibly win.  But the real competition that was in the Derby and not in the Preakness will be back in the Belmont.  

If the pace is fast Commanding Curve has no chance.  

I think Chrome might win, not saying he will but he is still better than the competition.   

This is going to be a good race and harder to cap than the derby.  The Preakness was easy money, so predictable.  

I watched CC( this CC) prior efforts he appears to be by far, the BEST closer of the bunch...that EXTRA DISTANCE really helps his chances.....Everybody preaching about that extra 1/4 mile being the "true test" of a champion, which is very very true,  I look for this one to be by far, the biggest threat to the CC's CROWN attempt....and he's "fresh" ...The" Watch out for" horse....
 
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Posted: #33
boy was i wrong (about the odds).....

now im seeing value and leaning on C Curve....

pace was not fast in the derby and he still gained tons of ground. another furlong and he would've caught chrome. now adding 2 more furlongs to this race. horse had rest and is fresh. impossible to throw out that race (KD) considering that these are 3 year olds and they are still improving.

 
Legend
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by djbrow:

The only way that Curve is 4-1 is if Chrome, Tonalist, ROC, and Wicked Strong all scratch.

You should watch the last furlong of the Preakness. ROC wasn't going by CC if they went around five more times.


Absolutely correct.  ROC blew his load and CC just shrugged him off like a pesky fly without even working THAT hard.  Espy new he had it in the bag.  Another furlong and it would have been 4-5 lengths IMO.  
 
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by rawm:

boy was i wrong (about the odds).....

now im seeing value and leaning on C Curve....

pace was not fast in the derby and he still gained tons of ground. another furlong and he would've caught chrome. now adding 2 more furlongs to this race. horse had rest and is fresh. impossible to throw out that race (KD) considering that these are 3 year olds and they are still improving.


...just like me.....12-1 compared to 3/5  

He will be my key exacta player and will play him on top in some tris and supers..why the hell not....if somebody is going to run CC down it's gonna be CC...oh the irony..

plus it holds that winner's name starts with a "C" theory 
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