Derby angles that work

since 1992 through to 2008 there has only been two winners who did NOT achieve a three figure Beyer speed rating prior to the Derby. Since 2008, the three winners in Mine that Bird, Super Saver and Animal Kingdom has not achieved the previously thought requisite criteria to win a Kentucky Derby of a three figure Beyer speed rating prior to their triumph. Can this recent run of winners demonstrating substandard Beyer ratings prior to their Derby triumph be sustained?

 In just four years, it is far too small a sample size to give up on the triple digit Beyer speed rating as THE definitive statistic for finding a Kentucky Derby winner.

Only four likely Derby contenders have recorded a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure, and they combine for just six in total. The 100+ Beyer horses are Verrazano (105 in an optional claimer, 101 in the Tampa Bay Derby), Itsmyluckyday (102 in the Gulfstream Park Derby, 104 in the Holy Bull), Goldencents (105 in the Santa Anita Derby), and Revolutionary (102 in a maiden win).

This is by far the most popular way of figuring out who has the stamina to stay the Derby distance of 1m 2f. In technical terms, Dosage Index (DI) is a metaphor for genetic suitability to ten furlongs. A simple explanation is that dosage figures a given contender's distance potential based on stallions from the first 4 generations of that horse's pedigree. It's a genetically-based theory that takes into account not only how well certain ancestors of the horse did, but also how far back in the horse's line they are. Points are awarded for speed and stamina of top-notch horses that often appear in contenders' pedigrees. These superstallions are called "chefs de race."

Any horse with a dosage of 4.00 or less is supposed to be able to make the derby distance. So far, since the derby began in 1875, only four winners have had dosages higher than 4.00; however, all of those were relatively recently. They were Strike The Gold in 1991, Real Quiet in 1998, Charismatic in 1999 and Giacomo in 2005. Because of a reclassification of his sire, Strike the Gold would now qualify. 

 The average DI since 1940 is 2.27. The average DI in the past 13 years is 2.94 and that includes Real Quiet’s 5.29, Charismatic’s 5.22, Giacamo’s 4.33 and Mine That Bird’s 5.40. In the English Derby, the DI of winners are considerably lower then that in the Kentucky Derby. Whilst just 2f shorter, the pace angle is considerably much more weighted in the American version with more weight placed on the physicality of the horse given the demanding nature of racing on dirt which places more stress on horses then it does on turf.

Dual Qualifiers

Dual qualifiers are those horses that not only have a dosage of 4.00 or less but also are within 10 pounds of the high weight in the Experimental Free Handicap rating. It is based only on races from the contenders' 2-year-old season. But the dual qualifier angle has only had limited success. Only two of the last 14 winners, Street Sense in 2007 and Super Saver in 2010, were dual qualifiers.

Dual Qualifiers in this year's race are: Frac Daddy, Goldencents, Overanalyze and Normandy Invasion.

Raise A Native Sire Line

Twelve Derby winners so far had the horse Raise A Native in their sire line, meaning the line of male horses extending back directly from the sire. (In other words, the sire's sire, and his sire, and his sire, etc.)

Some interesting statistics similarly to the Wild Risk/Vimy bloodline for the Grand National won by Aurora’s Encore who possessed the Vimy bloodline.

14 of the last 25 winners (56%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.

11 of the last 17 winners (65%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.

8 of the last 12 winners (67%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.

Horses in this year's race with Raise A Native in their sire lines are:

Code West, Mylute, Governor Charlie, Palace Malice, Will Take Charge

Preparation Profiles

Big Brown, in 2008, was the first horse since Sunny's Halo in 1983 to win without more than 2 prep races at age 3.  Those trying this year are

Also, the vast majority had at least a third place finish in their last prep, but in 2005 Giacomo went on to win the Derby after having been 4th in his previous race.

Barbaro, the 2006 Derby winner, was the first horse since Needles in 1956 to win the Derby without a race four weeks or fewer before it. It should be noted, however, that this number is likely to increase because of the movement of the Florida Derby, a key prep race, to 5 weeks before the Derby.