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Derby angles that work

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All-Star
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Posted: #26
Wow great stuff guys
I now am - back to the drawing board

On a separate note I believe Will take Charge [Lucas camp] will be one of the most overlooked horses in the Derby.

 He screams developing colt to me. Toss the slop start and he’s nothing but good.
Only concern is the long layoff between his solid  win in the Rebel and Saturday.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #27

all of the last 4 derbys and 8 of the last 9 have had a horse that ran in the Ark derby finish in the super.  The 2 Ark Derby runners from this year-Overanalyze and Frac  Daddy.  Don't overanalyze this race........cause Frac Daddy isn't hitting the board-especially in the slop.  The other mentioned horse will.  GL to all!

 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by winsomelosemost:

all of the last 4 derbys and 8 of the last 9 have had a horse that ran in the Ark derby finish in the super.  The 2 Ark Derby runners from this year-Overanalyze and Frac  Daddy.  Don't overanalyze this race........cause Frac Daddy isn't hitting the board-especially in the slop.  The other mentioned horse will.  GL to all!



Oxbow and Falling Sky also ran in the Ark Derby...
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by angrybarber:

Stewart elliot and mario guitierez never rode in the derby before they won it

a new rider for horse....
 
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Posted: #30
Johnny V picked up the mount on Animal Kingdom the day before the derby. Uncle Mo scratched and Robby Albarado fell off a mount which is Johnny V ended up on AK
 
Prospect
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Posted: #31
My apologies...very true, do not think either of them will hit the board either.  Falling Sky will finish 20th.  GL to all
 
Captain
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Posted: #32
Over the Last 27 Years
Front Runners have
Won 2 times on a fast track
Ran 2nd  2 times on a fast track
Ran 3rd or 4th, 6 times on a fast track

Stalkers Ran 1st and 2nd Twice in that time period, I'm counting Babaro and Bluegrass Cat '06  in addition to Big Brown and Eight Belles in '08

 
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Posted: #33
Since 2007, horses coming into the derby directly off a race on an AW track have finished 1st twice, 2nd twice, 3rd twice, and 4th twice.  

Black Onyx, Charming Kitten, Giant Finish, Java's War, Lines of Battle, and Palace Malice all ran on AW in their last race. 
 
Legend
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Posted: #34

Quote Originally Posted by giant_causeway:

Not inclined to pay too much attention to dosage index and dual qualifiers but the preparation profile for me is the most important. Really liking Frac Daddy! lol.. 50/1 a nice price with 365 for sure. Looks way too big and gone in again! lol.. Just hope he turns up and make the first three at the least.

Orb for me, has more versatility of all the closers who looks one dimensional and reliant on luck in running. Also has jockey of the moment Joel Rosario on board. Itsmyluckyday gone under the radar (well here anyway!) but really like the fitness angle. Co-incidence he's won all dirt race coming off a recent run 5 weeks or less? We shall see! He has no excuses really and if he's good enough he'll go close with luck in running not too big a factor given his prominent style.

Very nice read

So, who you got winning it all and whats your trifecta/superfecta?

 
Prospect
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Posted: #35
To me, this is one of the most reliable stats and helps cut the field down to just 8 horses.

Since 1952, 77% of all Kentucky Derby winners finished in the top three in either the Florida Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial, or Santa Anita Derby.


This year, that includes: 5, 8, 10, 12, 14, 15, 16, and 19
 
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Posted: #36
great thread, good work guys!  
 
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Very nice read

So, who you got winning it all and whats your trifecta/superfecta?



On those three a few weeks ago. Hopeful! If it's turns sloppy Frac Daddy: No Chance!

Orb, Itsmyluckyday, Goldencents likely my trifecta. Not my normal bet. Think it's more of an American thing. Still worth a few quid!

Wise Dan looks a good thing. Even money with UK bookies. Can't imagine POint of Entry has as much speed as Wise Dan who may well have given Frankel a race last year. Excelebration was comfortably second best miler in Europe whilst Animal Kingdom won the Dubai World cup in MArch. Form looks so much stronger then his rivals I'm thinking what's the catch??? Gone in for a bit and my nap of the day.

In the Guineas in the UK, it's the colts' day today. HAve George Vancouver from a long time ago (straight after Breeders Cup) but Dawn Approach and Toronado head the market. Both unbeaten but hopeful of hitting a top 3! Best of luck!
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