Derby Talk

medhellson

justify

hofburg

bolt doro

my boy jack 

Right now I believe I'll have audible on top of one and justify the other with myboyjack and hofburg 2 and 3 and 3 and 2. 

im actually leaning promises fullfilled - i view it like this-    he will go out early and justify should stalk instead of press -- no one else wants to tangle with them early hoping they burn each other out-- but i think pace will be moderate and promises fullfilled has a huge chance at 50-1 plus as he can last when uncontested -- justify hasnt passed a horse like these ever

I'd be shocked if promises finishes higher than 8th.

promises fullfilled will get first, second, or bottom 2--   my play is based on the fact he can set a moderate pace - if not then he will fade to around last for sure     But i feel he has a 20% chance to set a moderate pace and a then another 50% chance to win if he does--  so think that equates to a about a 10% chance to win in my view and at over 50-1 off odds thats my win play  

I eliminate any horse no finishing in the top 2 in the five major prep races and any horse not born in the great state of Kentucky. Those arbitrary qualifiers account for about 80% of Derby winners over the past 75 years.

And of course, I ain't touching the Apollo Curse.

That leaves................ Hofburg, Vino Rosso, Enticed, Good Magic and Bolt d'Oro.

Among them, Bolt d'Oro has the most impressive resume and a decent post position. Good luck gentlemen. 

Ante-Post book:

Solomini 25/1 EW, 33/1 EW

Magnum Moon 16/1

Hofburg 20/1 EW

Tricky one. Didn't think much of last year's Juvenile class hence taking the default EW bet Good Magic for the Juvenile race. He pissed up nicely. Not sure he is improving though. Think this year's equivalent of Exaggerator is Solomini and like him a lot. Some concern over his inability to switch leads but seems to do that ok in his last workout. Price makes him worth a shot. Form already entitles him to be thereabouts and if he can improve a little bit more now he seems to have learned to switch leads, he has win possibilities. The Draw of 17 is a concern given statistics about that post but it isn't impossible.

Magnum Moon I have in the book but gone right off him. The way he hung right at the end of his last start suggests there is a quirk yet to reveal itself. Could be tiredness and the trip might stretch him too. Also has the Apollo curse to overcome. Have the option to cash out for a small profit but not sure yet.

Hofburg I just added couple of days ago. Think he is strong contender for the Belmont Stakes but concerned over lack of experience. Think, given his experienced connections (Juddmonte, Mott) and the rarity they actually run a bonafide Derby contender in recent years, this could be indicative of the ability he has at home or the chances they think he has. Worth having onside.

Not sure I'll add any more! Do like Good Magic and Vino Rosso but can't back them all! If they drift in the market to perhaps 16/1 and 20/1 respectively, I might add them as savers but Solomini is the undisputed top pick for me. Both Magnum Moon and Hofburg solid savers. 

From a European perspective, Mendelssohn is very much an unknown. The problem isn't just the surface but also his breeding. Scat Daddy seems to be a massive influence for speed. As popular and sexy a stallion he is, it's a big jump from siring turf Group One winning sprinters to siring a Kentucky Derby winner. His dam has the Rialto/Sif stamina influence in her pedigree giving him a decent shot at staying the trip. For me, it's a price thing as I'm unwilling to want to pay 9/2 to find out whether he acts on dirt.