Friday BC Races

Wagering stamina & discipline will be extremely important Friday & Saturday. You certainly don't want to blow your wad on Friday causing you to lose confidence on your capping headed into Saturday. I know that's common sense but it's not so common anymore especially with all the ways to wager at your fingertips.

There are some capping angles I use regularly & if I like a horse I play it. I love the exotics but on BC days I'm not hesitant to sprinkle a little cash on WPS because there is so much wagered in the betting pools.

I pay attention to the 1st flash on the tote to help identify early money. But you have to be careful here because some money is played early by wealthy owners who just want to get their money down on the horse they own. On the other hand, late money can come into the pools after you've made your wager on a race. When seen I usually will look closer at the horse being bet to see what I may have missed. Making a small WPS in a CYA move sometimes is a result.

Reviewing the jock/trainer/owner connections is an angle I use often. As you know, most jockeys are contracted to ride for certain trainers & owners. A deviation from these connections usually catch my eye. I try to determine why a jock is off or on a certain horse & there can be numerous reasons for the switch. The most common IMO is that either the trainer or owner didn't like the last effort on the horse. But it can be as simple as the regular jock has a commitment to ride another horse. Certain trainers work with certain owners like Pletcher/Repole stables but some other owners like Gary Barber will use multiple trainers/jockeys. In fact there is one trainer, Paul Bauer, who trains exclusively for Rigney Racing which is unique.

We will be dealing with large fields as well as horses shipped in from Europe & Japan. Data on the shippers may be less than desired & video replays of their previous races may not be available. We'll also see a trainer or owner with multiple horses in a race that may cause you to think WTF? Don't because it's quite common in horse racing.

I'm going to start capping both cards & I'll add to this thread when I find something good to share.

Finished capping Friday's card & noticed that Steve Asmussen doesn't have a horse on the card.

Here's a decent story to share...

Evidently the BC committee invited trainer/owner Kyle Horlacher to Del Mar. Ever hear of him? Me either.

Mr. Horlacher is a 22 year Navy pilot veteran who retired & now trains 2 horses.

On Friday in Race 2 he has entered #5 Shoshanah & has attracted Paco Lopez to ride his 5 year old mare. ML is 10-1

I'll be playing the undercard but won't be posting those plays until tomorrow. We'll get to the meaty BC races. For brevity sake, I'll be posting the # of the horse & not the name. It should be easy for everyone reading to follow along. Here we go..

RACE 6 JUVENILE TURF SPRINT

#1- is a well bet gray colt for Mike Maker who is 6 for 6 ITM (In the Money) who ran 2nd to #10 Governor Sam by a closing neck. He goes a half furlong shorter here with Luis Saez staying onboard. He's always been close the pace & should be tomorrow. ML is 20-1

#2-has won 4 of 6 including 2 in a row ships in from England for a trainer I know nothing about. He beat # 3 Big Mojo by a neck in his last. However, Big Mojo beat him 3 races back & so has #9 Shareholder 5 races back. Ml is 9/2

#3- has won 1 of 4 & also comes over from England. He's trained by Michael Appleby but he has no relation to famed Charlie Appleby. ML is 4-1

#4- has been beaten by both #2 & 3 & has also won 1 of 4. Don't have any more to add on this colt. ML is 15-1

#5 -is 7 for 8 ITM & ran 3rd to #9 Shareholder back in June. He's another shipper from England. He ran 4th in his last try missing by a half length. ML is 15-1

#6- throw out his last when he got bumped around against #10 Governor Sam. He's only 1 for 6 & banked a little over 100k. I think he's along for a Cali vacation. ML is 15-1

#7 - excites me for a number of reasons . He's 6 of 7 ITM while winning 3 of them & running 2nd in another 3 races, he has been well bet in all of his races & Aidan O'Brien trains him. Better yet, the owner is Peter Brant  who wins at a 20% clip. ML is 5-1

#8 is an undefeated shipper from Japan who has won both of his races. He was pounded at the windows in both races & I like his Twirling Candy daddy. ML is 7/2

#9 won 2 in a row before getting destroyed in his last by #7 Whistlejacket in his last before shipping here from France. I'd throw that race out. ML is 12-1

#10 has won 4 of 5 races including 4 in a row. He loves the distance & the turf. Waco Paco stays up for trainer George weave who is sneaky good IMO. ML is 12-1.

#11 has been heavily bet in both races but was the beaten chalk for Pletcher/Irad. He comes from the BIGA & expect these connections to get bet again. ML is 30-1

#12 has won 2 in a row for Aidan O'Brien for owner Michael Tabor & picks up Frankie Dettori. This guy ships in from Ireland & went off @14-1 in his initial try when he ran 4th but has been heavily bet in his last 3. Perhaps they realized late they had a good one & didn't know it at first. ML is 8-1.   

RACE 7 JUVENILE FILLIES 1 1/16TH DIRT

#1-Irad picks up the mount from Mike Smith which surprises me. Perhaps it's because this filly has finished 2nd in both of his rides @ Del Mar. ML is 20-1

#2- is still a Maiden running 2nd in both tries for Danny Gargan. She was a beaten favorite in her last & Saez gets back up on her. ML is 15-1

#3- is from the GoDolphin owners & she's undefeated going 3 for 3 for the Brad Cox barn. However, she was 13 & 10 to 1 odds @ Saratoga where she won convincingly. The betting public realized she was special bettin her down to almost even money @ Keeneland in her last at this distance. One to beat. ML is 3-1

#4 has win 2 in a row for Mark Casse/Santana. She's banked over 250k & appears to have been racing under the radar of bettors winning @ 5 & 4 -1 odds. ML is 12-1

#5 is 3 for 3 ITM but has won only 1 race for Tom Amoss/Dylan Davis. She ran 3rd to #3 after getting bumped around in her last. I like Tom Amoss but he's not a "stakes" winner going only 4% in those races. ML is 10-1

#6 is from Japan, has won all 3 races & is going longer here. She ran 2nd to #9 American Bikini back in July. Like the Spreightown breeding. ML is 20-1

#7 is a Baffert filly who has won both her races including her Maiden @ Del Mar. Looks tough but will be heavily bet. ML is 9/2

#8 is another Baffert filly who is 3 for 4 ITM. Big jock upgrade to Flavian Prat. Hasn't won since August running 5th & 2nd in her last 2 races. ML is 15-1

#9 comes over from Japan after winning 2 in a row. Picks up jockey Ryan Moore who has won 14 BC races. ML is 5-1

#10 won the Frizette @ Aqueduct in her last by 8 as a Maiden with Jose Lezcano riding. Like the McKinzie breeding but should she be the favorite here? ML is 5-2  

RACE 8 JUVENILE FILLIES TURF I MILE

#1 will be the heavy chalk for Aidan O'Brien/Ryan Moore. She comes over from England & is undefeated going 4 for 4 whike banking 538k. However, she's never gone this distance. ML is 8-5

#2 is a Maiden for Casse & went off @ 41-1 in her last try @ Woodbine when she gave way in the stretch. She attracts Jose Ortiz. ML is 15-1

#3 ran 2nd to #4 Scythian in her last who she was never going to catch IMO. She did make a big closing move when she broke her Maiden at 1st asking  at Kentucky Downs which is a tough track to race on for any filly. Not sure & will have to take a closer look tomorrow  

#4 I circled this one last night. She has won 2 in a row for Bill Mott who wins stake races @20%. She beat #6 Virgin Colada who was the chalk in her last race which was the Ms.Grill0 Stakes @ Aqueduct @11-1. She goes a little shorter her & Mott usually has his horses well placed. ML is 12-1

#5 is 3 of 4 ITM for Casse/Santana but has only won 1 race but she did run 2nd to #12 May Day Ready losing by a nose. Manny Franco rides & she shortens a little here. ML is 20-1

#6 is out of More Than ready for Prat/Chad Brown but has failed as the chalk in her last 2 races. She ran 2nd to #4 in her last with a big ass closing move coming from 9 back & did the same 2 races back losing to #5 by a half length. ML is 20-1.

#7 has won 3 of 4, loves Del Mar going 2 for 2, is 3 for 3 on the grass at this distance. Should be tough. ML is 5-2

#8 comes here from Ireland after winning her last her last by a neck. She's won 3 of 7 for Aidan O'Brien & goes a little longer here. ML is 12-1

#9 is a well bet 2 for 2. She's been impressive but has never gone this distance. Lezcano came from way back in her last to get the win. ML is 20-1 

#10 woke up in her last race for Mark Casse/Davis winning in a closing move. She's going longer here too. ML is 30-1

#11 comes here from Ireland after winning 1 of 6. Seems to like 2nd doing so in 4 of her 6 races. ML is 30-1

#12 has won 3 of 3 with Frankie Dettori riding for the small barn of Joseph Lee who wins @ 23%. Doesn't have much speed but this is the type of filly I'm playing in my exotics. ML is 20-1

#13 is 3 for 3 ITM for Casse/Johnny V. Lost by a neck in her last @ 8-1 & also ran 3rd to #9 Kilwin. Ships in from Woodbine for Eclipse Stables. ML is 15-1

#14 comes here from England & her last race was dull. She's won 2 of 4 & picks up Rosario. She's owned by Gary Barber & Team Valor. ML is 30-1

RACE 9 JUVENILE 1 1/16TH

#1-owned by GoDolphin with Tyler Gafflione/Walsh. Love this combination. This colt is undefeated going 2 for 2 winning his last by 5. He has won at this distance & should go immediately to the lead. ML is 5-2

#2 is a well bet Baffert colt who has won 2 of 4. Curlin is his daddy but he's run 2nd & 4th in his last 2 including the beaten chalk in his last. ML is 20-1

#3  comes from Ireland & is lightly raced having gone to the gate twice. He won at first asking but ran a lousy 8th in his last. ML is 30-1

#4 this colt is out of Flatter & was the beaten favorite in his last 2 when he ran 2nd with Luis Saez & Irad in the saddle. Javier Castellano returns on this boy after breaking his Maiden on him. Double Check that Javier is riding.  ML is 6-1 

#5 is 2 for 2 for Rigney Racing/Paul Bauer. This guy has won on the lead & coming from behind. Interesting. ML is 9-2

#6 is another Baffert colt who has won 2 of 3. He's won on this surface & has a bullet workout on 10/28 going 5F in 54:8. ML is 10-1

#7 """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 2 of 2 & attracts Irad (Prat comes off). He'll be going longer here. ML is 8-1

#8 comes from Japan after breaking his Maiden at first asking winning by 5. Love the daddy Constitution. ML is 10-1

#9 is also from Japan & has won  1 of 2 but ran 5th in his last. He goes longer here. ML is 30-1

#10 is 3 for 3 for Brown/Prat & he'll be going longer here. Has shown to win convincingly coming off the pace. ML is 3-1

RACE 10 JUVENILE TURF 1 MILE

#1 comes here undefeated from Japan going 2 for 2. Interestingly he worked 10/28 going 1F in 12 seconds. Can't remember any horse working 1F. ML is 20-1

#2 is 3 of 4 ITM for Casse/Jose Ortiz but has run 3rd & 2nd in his last 2 tiring in both. ML is 20-1

#3 is a Maiden after 3 tries for Pletcher. Since Jose Ortiz will ride the #2, Tyler Gafflione picks up the mount. Note his best race was his last. Dangerous. ML is 15-1

#4 trainer Charlie Appleby has 2 in here including this one who has won 2 of 6. His speed rating puts him right there. ML is 4-1

#5 owned by Michael Dubb this one is undefeated going 3 for 3. He's won his last 2 by a neck & that indicated to me he has a lot of heart. Trained by Brown & ridden by Prat makes this one an attractive play. ML is 8-1

#6 has won on this track in September & has been well bet in his last 2. Local connection of D'Amato/Fresu will draw some interest I imagine, ML is 30-1

#7 comes in from England after winning 1 of 5. On the + side, Luis Saez hops up on this guy. He's stretching out here having never raced a mile. ML is 15-1

#8 SCRATCHED 

#9 ships in from England with a 2 wins in 5 tries. He'll try longer but I'm not sure why he's at Del Mar. MK is 20-1.

#10 has won 2 of 3 & goes longer here for Pletcher/Johnny V. He runs a good race then a crappy race. Who knows here. ML is 15-1. Special Note: This trainer, William Walden, started training 2 years ago & is a recovering addict. Horses saved his life & he's winning @20%. In life, he's a BIG winner!  

#11 ships in from England via Woodbine & is undefeated at this mile distance going 2 for 2 while winning 3 of 5. His speed rating is the best here. ML is 5-2

#12 ships from England & didn't fire in his last but has won 2 of 4 tries.The connection of Charlie Appleby/William Buick always gets my attention. ML is 10-1

#13 also comes from France for O'Brien/Ryan Moore, He's been well bet in all 5 tries where he's won 3 times. He goes longer here. ML is 8-1

#14 SCRATCHED

That's all for now. Excuse the typos or any other mistakes made.

I just don't have time to post Saturday's card in this much detail but will note horses that are on my radar.

BOL to all!

Thanks for the good info so far. Great story. Even better if they would’ve waved Mr Horlocker entry fee. Lol

If you like good storys look at Arthur’s Ride in the classic

I haven’t done very well historically on Fridays Juvy day but for what it’s worth I can say in the juvenile I like Chancer McPatrick and Bafferts Getaway car at a price. Juvy turf I’m looking at Al Qudra with Doyle aboard. Like him as a single. Appleby doesn’t bring a lot of horses over but when he does he’s 3 for 5. 
In the Sprint  I kind of like the 4 magnum force. Only lost to the two you stated by a length and a quarter and he’s triple the price while he is maturing at the right time, he’s definitely an addition to my tri’s. That’s all I got pal. Good luck.