Why does P Mac drive like that?
He did the same thing with Somebeachsomewhere....challenged the leader in first 3-8 and got hung...backed off and then loses
Fuck me, if JMAC or Sylvain/McNair drives, they don't make a bad decision...its either lead or pull back for stretch drive. He had nothing down the lane because he asked too early at the MEADOWLANDS!!
Saturday Mohawk Weather:
-track might be fine for the Pick5 ....only rain sporadic since this morning with long stretches of no rain and drizzle only expected to come in around the 5th or 6th race....late fog
WIND > NE....great for outside horses to get to the front on the first turn...they get a push
N wind later.....all night at about 10 mph
Gonna cap the first Pick5 and if I see a good key....and some potential mid to longshots live in other races, I will be playing tonight!
Doing Cullen wheel tickets to win one of the races he is entered in during the Pick5
Race 1 > love 3567 < the latter is the price horse as they put him on the engine like earlier in the summer when he was winning but notice the 5 races before he was trained to come from behind and did so with success? This time, they put him in the 5-6 hole and he comes with cover and challenges with Bet on Becky coming down the lane
Race 2 > ALL 6 ...don't piss around here as they are all close....some up and comers to challenge Wheels on Fire which I am going to put with Cullen on Lit de Rose Cullen wheel ticket
Race 3 > #8 KEY .... this is a well known fact at Mohawk that when Ballairgeron drops his horses 2 classes and he shows any kind of speed to start or to close, the horse will go to the front and win....I cannot remember when this horse did not win when doing so....look at its last win on the bottom line....and I can tell you, the horse was not fit and closing like it is in 25 like it is now .....that night it was a HI-5 that I keyed it and won on the drop
-if I lose this race as a key, I have to accept the fact they set it up for that to happen......everyone knows this fact if you watch Mohawk for years!
-only horse I am worried about is #9 going to Marfisi and when I do my Cullen wheel tickets, I will add it in
Race 4 > great race....do not leave out #1 with Leonard Rosene training...I know him and his best friend who is a seriously good handicapper and we talk about juice and advantages all the time....they must HAVE something as a Rosene horse came flying and won easy by 6 lengths the other night and look at the back half times on this horse
> Take ALL except #2 (8 horses) ......all have a shot as all have raced higher or racing well now
Race 5 > YIKES ....another Baillargeron horse that drops and pops that everyone knows....TRACEUR HANOVER #4 but you have to take WIND BLOWN who will battle to get to the front ....and maybe the fastest closer like #6 Smooth Lou who won the Cup and Saucer in the summer ...it has a monster kick
NOTICE > 2nd week Lasix on #7 and now a shift to the Moreau barn which is on fire!!!
Suggested tickets:
Main > 3567 / 56 (the more I look at this, I think you only need those two especially if I am doing the Cullen wheel also) / 8 / 8 horses ...leave out #2 with trainer driving unless there is a change..it goes in / 3467
COST = $51.20 ......seriously considering doing the tickets underneath instead....Cullen wheels
Cullen key #1 ..... 1 / 56 / 8 / 8 horses / 4 horses = $12.80
Cullen key #2 ..... 3567 / 3 / 8 / 356789 / 347 (will back up 6) = $14.40
Cullen key #3 ..... 3567 / 56 / 6 / 356789 / 47 = $19.20
Cullen key #4 ..... 3567 / 56 / 8/ 3 / 347 = $4.80
Cullen Key #5 ...... 3567 / 56 / 8 / 356789 / 7 = $9.60
TOTAL CULLEN PLAYS = $60.80
Forgot to mention I did fairly large Pick3's with the 5 /56 / 9 in the 3rd race as first time Marfisi horses usually shave a lot of time
Track looks worse than I thought.....glad I did wheel tickets and not everything I suggested...who knows what can happen in off conditions
Other Pick3's were $2 > 367 / 56 / 9 and $4 > 5 / 1234 / 9 and $1.20 > 367 / 1234 / 9
Ok....I am back after a very hard couple of weeks at work and I am still facing about 3 more weeks of hell to get through but doing fine. I just cannot spread myself thin or I make mistakes at work or in my betting world and there is nothing worse!
I finally made some NCAAF plays last night and hit my first PRESS BET today > took Ole Miss -9 for $550 and won by 13
Last night, I drank some wine and dabbled in the mid and late races.....played exactors and supers/triactors at Mohawk and started with $45 and ended with $122 ($158 just before my last play which was the Pick4 and lost)
So, I think time off is always good especially when you are not mentally fresh....the account begins to leak!
Winds tonight are from the SW at 8-13 mph gusts...same wind as last night so anything goes
-this wind favours FIRST OVER or 2nd/3rd over since they get a push on the last turn and they do well if there was a speed battle
-I handicapped to this angle last night and it worked, as well as throwing out all 9-10 hole horses since they have to use a lot of energy to get to the front....UNLESS, you think they are the fastest speed horse and you keep em
Major/nasty spill last night....race 7 in the Pick4 was a no contest as a result....McNair booked off the rest of his drives so going to check changes, since if he is off, his style is hard to replace on some of the horses I capped tonight!
Ahhhh....McNair IS driving tonight but its Bob McCLure that had to go get checked out himself....and is out....that is interesting
Interesting changes...I have to change ticket now because McNair is driving a race or two of McClures
Race 1 - bettors are reacting negatively but I say its a major positive..... #3 has Luc Roy now on a trotter that won on long odds but I liked with Gillis....don't be fooled by the odds!
Race 2 - Forefather is changing the bike and something else....it goes in now on a Pick3 or maybe a 2nd Pick5
#5 Century Heinken gets blinkers to help with the sideways move down the lane....love this horse and think its the only one that can beat Mappos in my view
Race 3 - McNair is taking over for #7 Rocknrollme as this is very good......was considering putting the horse in with McClure but will now for sure with McNair
-#9 is out scratched hence the switch to McNair
Race 4 - Austin Sorrie on #5 instead of McClure....thats fine....might even be better since Lyons Tilt needed a steady patient hand like McClure and that is exactly Sorrie's style here at Mohawk (not a Flamboro or London!)
Race 5 - #6 Angry Eyes needs a driver....I can see them asking Roger Mayotte or Saftic if he is racing tonight.....I am taking this horse off my ticket now due to driver uncertainty for my 2ND TICKET
Main tickets - P5
23610 / 45 / 1567 / 124569 / 3 < key horse dropping down with JMAC (this horse did not like slop last week! but look at its closing times! = $38.40
23610 / 45 / 1567 / 15 / 27 = $25.60
2310 / 127 / 1567 / 15 / 3 = $9.60
....if you love Mappos as a key in the 2nd race, then take #2 as well with #3 if you are nervous to KEY.......DO NOT fall in love with #7's times as this horse Superlative just sucks along and stalls down the lane..I have wasted WAY too much money chasing this horse this year to finally win and show last year's form, so I won't throw it on a big ticket anymore ...the horse is a money drainer!
Pick3 Race 1 40 cent > 1589 / 45 / 1567 = $12.80
>60 cent > 23610 / 245 / 8 = $7.20
> 20 cent > 23610 / 17 / 8 = $1.60
Race 3- I do not like HighlandBeachlover on the inside...never wins there....it usually wins at position #6 - 10 and likes to get ahead of horses and won't be able to in the 2 - hole....just an observation that I stick to
-#8 Rosene's horse....I have been talking about this trainer...know the owner....for sure they have a training cocktail or technique that is working as this horse did 26'4 in the wind (1 sec. variance for strength) and still closed in 27 flat!!! ...into the wind!! BEWARE.... I will put the horse on my second ticket
This ticket is alive....as well as a PICK3 backup to #3 and #8 in the next race (#3)
2310 / 127 / 1567 / 15 / 3 = $9.60 < I actually sweetened this ticket and put in Highland Beachlover in the next race just in case they did something like this.....you rarely see the PICK5 down to $1000 in bets in the pool and I am one of them!!
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