is TAPWRIT a Live Long shot for the DERBY ?????

Question

Whats Up Brothers ????Looking for some Opinions TAPWRIT got off to a bad start in the Blue Grass and Didnt shoot his wad finishing 5th .... Before that he WON the TAMPA BAY DERBY and came 2nd to MCCRACKEN in the Sam Davis In his last 5 starts =  3 WINS  1 PLACE  / 1 5TH ....I am also a Big Fan of Jose Ortiz Hoping for 25-1 or better ....Will likely bet him underneath in the exotics as wellthoughts ????

DoubleUp4Life · Answer

Whats Up Brothers ????Looking for some Opinions TAPWRIT got off to a bad start in the Blue Grass and Didnt shoot his wad finishing 5th .... Before that he WON the TAMPA BAY DERBY and came 2nd to MCCRACKEN in the Sam Davis In his last 5 starts =  3 WINS  1 PLACE  / 1 5TH ....I am also a Big Fan of Jose Ortiz Hoping for 25-1 or better ....Will likely bet him underneath in the exotics as wellthoughts ????

howzuck · Answer

Doubleup, I think he could be a live long shot, not sure he could win, but I will include him in exotics, there are a bunch of other live ones also, I think there will be big payoffs if you can solve the puzzle this year......

howzuck · Answer

I like Mccraken a lot here (still waiting for post draw obviously), so I have to give tapwrit some consideration as well. But Mccraken will be among the favorites (though in the 20 horse field this could mean about 8-1 to 10-1), I&#x27;m sure there will be some bombs in the money to create five digit trifecta and superfecta numbers, good luck......

mikeyp1 · Answer

I agree....what&#x27;s more Tapwrit has yet to run his race. Not sure if I will play as one of those I will play to win, but a very live under for me. Note.....I just read an article on drf.com about how investor/breeders, including Robert LaPenta, a noted owner, have arranged a $1.2 million sale for the colt. Smoke, then fire?

howzuck · Answer

Yes, well value will go up ten times overnight if this horse somehow wins the Derby!

Seriously, if this is true, are owners really motivated to try hard to win the Derby, after all odds are against him winning and he could get injured?

mikeyp1 · Answer

I believe they are getting the deal done before the Derby. Remember when Baffert fleeced the guy who owned War Emblem a week before the Derby?

mikeyp1 · Answer

HOWZ...The biggest incentive for the new owners for Tapwrit to win is extremely high. The difference between the stud fee of a horse who wins the Derby and a solid horse with pedigree is about $75,000 to $100,000 per pop.

So if Tapwrit wins the Derby and covers, on average, 50-75 mares each year at an average of $125,000 per mare (vs. a stud fee of probably $25,000-$35,000 as a non-Derby winner, but with a good pedigree out of Tapit), the price difference is huge.

Note: AP Indy and Mr. Prospector covered around 80-100 mares per year. I read an article last year that showed that American Pharoah earned $20 million in his first year as a sire getting $200,000 per cover. X's 100 mares.

Bottom line is that I don't think the owners want Taprwit to tank.

DoubleUp4Life · Answer

Thanks for responding Brother Agree , I like a bunch of Horses in here ( around 15 LOL/ too many ) ....Considering this plan = $150-300 TO WIN ON TAPWRITExacta Key wheel 15&#x2B; horses on Top of Him  ($30-120&#x2B;)and Key him 3RD in the TRI WHEELS with 6 Horses on Top and 12&#x2B; in 2nd    Feels Great this Year to Have some House money to play with =Luckily I just hit a NICE  40 cent PICK 4 at Mohawk yesterday (as Posted $3,127 )

DoubleUp4Life · Answer

The TRI AND SUPER SHOULD BE HUGE Wish they had 10 cent Supers ... MCCRACKEN at 9-1 or better would be very Good for his Backers .... He is one of the 6 horses I would use on top of my TRIFECTA WHEELS BEST OF LUCK BROTHER / APPRECIATE YOUR INSIGHT

DoubleUp4Life · Answer

HOPING SO  BROTHER I Love the Possible Value at 18-1 or better ( hoping for 25-1)

DoubleUp4Life · Answer

BELMONT PICK 450 CENT RACE 6RACE 6      2,5,8,9  RACE 7        5,7RACE 8      3,7,9,10RACE 9   7,10 &#x2B; (15 and or 13 if running)   $32/($48)($64)

Upside · Answer

Good Luck Double ! Like him in the 2/3/4 positions ....

jbl · Answer

Can&#x27;t decide between IWC and McCracken so I will do 2 separate .50 tri wheels. one with the 15/1,5,8,10,12,14,16,17 all three ways and one 17/1,5,8,10,12,14,15,16 all three ways($168). Hope I get your Tapwrit Sonneter and either IWC or Mccracken

angrybarber · Answer

IMO Tapwrit won&#x27;t win but I&#x27;m definitely using him in everything underneath.GL

DoubleUp4Life · Answer

$180 TO WIN #16$2 exacta wheel ALL OVER #16$1 EXACTA    5,8,11,14,15,17,18  OVER $1650 CENT TRI WHEEL 1ST    8,11,14,16,17,182ND    5,8,10,11,14,15,16,17,183RD     2,5,7,8,10,11,14,15,16,17,18,19

Ecdozit · Answer

Gonna fail to have a little action today but horses are foreign can you tell me how I would call that in little more specific ? Any wait till football been following a few years!

Ecdozit · Answer

Which race is your above bet for

glyde69 · Answer

If he&#x27;s live is a debate(imo he&#x27;s a good horse maybe good for a solid 3rd), but there&#x27;s no question he&#x27;s the value of the race. If he doesn&#x27;t lay an egg in the BG stakes, he&#x27;s arguably the second or third choice at 7-1 right now. He&#x27;s 28-1 as I type. Maybe he&#x27;s had a bad day last time out? Personally I can&#x27;t bet a horse in the Derby off a race like that. Maybe a G3 on the undercard I make a case to "throw out his last," but not in a 20 horse Derby. If he gets a great trip, I can see him winning and I&#x27;ll kick myself for ignoring that value. GL dude

DoubleUp4Life · Answer

RACE 9$30 to win on #7Conquest Farenheit 6-1 ML Won twice on Wet Turf Like the Value with one of My favorite Jocs Flavien Prat $2 exacta key wheel  #1,2,4,5,6,8,9,10 over #7 TOTAL COST $46

DoubleUp4Life · Answer

THANKS BROTHER FOR DROPPING BY You got that right about the Blue Grass start .... he didnt need the points and they might have run him soft on purpose that day ..Then again its gonna be real tough in this field I love the Value in the Long shots today and this horse is at the top of my list   ( also like Bombers 8,11,18 to possibly steal this one at a HUGE price )best of Luck Brother

DoubleUp4Life · Answer

BEST OF LUCK BROTHER

DoubleUp4Life · Answer

RACE 10$30 WIN #8EL KABIER 6-1 ML fantastic workout here 4f  in 47 flat$2 exacta wheel 1,2,5,7,9,10,12  over #8total cost $44

DoubleUp4Life · Answer

5/5/2017 2:34:16 PMQUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:SPECIAL PICK 3  50 CENT PICK 3   X 3 TIMES OAKS/WOODFORD/DERBYOAKS    4,7,10,13,14WOODFORD   2,4,6,8DERBY     5,7,8,11,14,15,16,17,18TOTAL COST $90/180/270

stuff · Answer

The derby favorite is Always Dreaming at 4-1,Johnny V up and trained by Todd Pletcher. I like the 1 horse Looking At Lee, closes hard and if he looks sharp in the post parade i&#x27;m betting him over all and all over him $38. Gonna see a high paying exacta,tri.and super today. Thunder Snow has been racing in UAE,Great Britain and France and today he will get first Lasix because we allow that med. in the U.S.A. not familar with his connections but he could be dangerous.

MushKing · Answer

Looking around, I saw a few experts who follow the sport (Joe Drape - New York Times, Joe Nevillis - Daily Racing Forum) predict Tapwrit to win today.

Again, I know nothing about this stuff, I'm probably the least knowledgeable person here, but I couldn't pass up the value.

I took 2 favorites, and 2 longshots-

McCraken - $100 (+550)

Classic Empire- $100 (+600)

Thunder Snow - $100 (+1800)

Tapwrit - $100 (+2500)

Which means Irish War Cry will be the winner, heh.

is TAPWRIT a Live Long shot for the DERBY ?????

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