Posted:
#1
Hello All,
Below is my breakdown of the card today at Keeneland, and I'll finish with the way I'd spend lets say a $100 budget in single races and for multi-race wagering. I didn't have time to do every race, and races 5 and 6 will come shortly as I'm finishing up with those two but wanted to get what I have posted. Let's see how we can do!
kee r1:
1- Take Your Guns - you could tell he didnt really know what to do while rating behind horses down chute. got nice inside trip and broke fine. has every right to improve and most likely will under this top barn. joel takes ride and has been red hot at keeneland. if this horse improves, he should be the best and has been working smooth with 4 breezes since feb18 debut.
2- Insurgent - could be controlling speed here and is eligible to run sharper second off the winter layoff. how much better is the question, and if challenged does he try to rate (debut showed ability to pass)? Geroux stays.
3- Wild Will - Foley got a nice win going turf to dirt yesterday and looks to do the same with this one stepping way up in class of the claim. probably over his head here, maybe underneath if there's some pace.
4- Combat Controller - sat a nice trip and made nice move to take the lead but was overwhelmed by the much best fav. took a big time step in the right direction and will probably be the third choice in the betting and probably at the end of the day the best logical value in the race. McPeek off to a cold start but has two in here including a potential(?) rabbit in the 5. Albarado chooses this one but has been riding terrible thus far at keeneland.
5- Sir Ballantine - capable of getting up front and pushing the pace or sitting back. this was a horse that went for 210k on a 10k stud fee and is moving back up to a protected open maiden, but has questions whether he's fast enough to compete with the best in here. fractions were extremely slow which makes the figure look worse than it really is. runs back less than 3 weeks later and fit enough to breeze over the track last week. a very sneaky looking horse and with different owner groups and Saez riding, I think this horse could be well meant here at a big price. consider and dont leave off deep tickets.
6- Van Horn - first time on dirt and on paper this one looks a cut below. interesting given pedigree that he's never been more of a pace factor. Interested to see what kind of money this one takes. Also note he finished well in last.
7- Leading Cause - wasnt competitive in debut. watch and see.
8- Drago's Pearl - tossing the blinkers right on after having issues focusing and being very fractious in the gate. looked very green and tired down the stretch. horse could definitely have some ability but might be alot to ask for him to put it all together by today.
Final Thoughts:
Although being able to make cases for many in here, I just think Chad has this field measured here. Debuting in a deep and classy 14 horse field earned him a world of experience and I'll trust the best connections on top. If under 3/2 I'll pass on the win bet. For a price, I think the 5 is my best value bet at which should be all if not more of his ml.
For sequences, I'm either singling or going deep and hoping for a big price to start a pick 3 or double.
1-2-4-5
win: 1
win/place: 5
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