Kentucky Derby 143--Analysis anbd Picks

NOTE: I am including odds as of 6 PM on May 5……….

A puzzler for sure, even among the better Covers.com handicappers, with a ton of constructive debate among Coveristas. While considering all the factors, including past perfromances, breeding, running style, jockeys and trainers, there have been few Kentucky Derby’s with so few considered clear cut…..

This race could go a number of directions. With few closers, a relative few upfront speedsters, distance issues for some, and just a handful of closers, I might argue that any of the 20 could win this regardless of their profiles.

Looks to me like a race that can go just perfectly for the winner, or one that might become Giacomo/Mine That Bird Part Two. While my initial thought is to throw out my hands and dust off the dart board, I, like most of the Covers Crowd will rely on their own brands of handicapping.

Let’s begin with the ML favorite, but not the current favorite……

#14 Classic Empire…..Had he not won the Arkansas Derby in the style in which he ran, I might dismiss the guy as just another BC Juve pretender. His Oak Lawn win wasn’t particularly pretty, but the colt needed to get done what was done.

Foot and back issues. Not wanting to train at times. Precociousness leading into the gate and other issues aside, for me, it came together in Hot Springs three weeks ago. His work here this past week and the body language tell me he is ready for this, both physically, and with this Niño, most importantly, mentally.

Key for him, as with most Derby winners, is position at the eighth pole. I think he will be in solid at the eighth, assuming he runs to his style. Interesting to note that 51 of the last 54 Derby winners were running first or second with a furlong to go.

I like the jock for the colt’s style re: the race set up, the post, the way Casse has trained the boy, and the sire, Pioneer of the Nile. I am guessing a moderate pace. If that happens, the stalkers, like CE, have a great shot. My guess is the winner will need to post a 100-102 to win this with three or four here capable of doing so with Classic Empire one them. 7-1 as of 6 PM Eastern time on May 5.

#2 Thunder Snow…..The more I’ve studied this son of classic Euro turfers, the more I like him. Here is what he has going for him. 1) Two for two on dirt, including a win in his last race (G-II UAE Derby—NOTE: IN THE MUD) at 1-3/16 miles at Meydan. He tracked, then employed a splendid closing run in the 16 horse field earning a 108 Timeform. Note that Master Plan finished third. 2) He’s carried as much as 131 pounds, that weight, in his maiden, which he won. Gets 1st time Lasix. 3) He has experience galore. 8/4-2-0 lifetime with all, but his maiden, a graded affair (Two G-I, Four G-II, One G-III).  4) Combo of trainer Saeed bin Suroor and jock Soumillon. The trainer has been successful worldwide and, while he hasn’t done much in the Derby—six runners with no WPS finishers {best was 6^th for China Visit in 2000}—he keeps coming back with good horses. I think this might be his best. 5) The Belgium rider, Christophe Soumillon, has won races all over the globe, including in the BC Turf on Shirocco in 2005, and he’s a Euro jock that isn’t afraid to lay the lumber when needed as he gets them out and coming from the 2 post. The 35-year old Soumillon will be on it with the horse having past showings as capable of launch. 6) Thunder Snow has beaten some of Europe’s best, including Lancaster Bomber, as well as Japanese champ Epicharis (in the UAE Derby). A very juicy 20-1 ML. Please do not dismiss for win. As with Classic Empire, I think a moderate pace is in tune with his style. 17-1 as of 6 PM…….

#5 Always Dreaming….Oh how I want to pick him as the winner, the son of Bodemeister has been most impressive. All I can think about is watching Bodemesiter’s Derby. In the lead less than 150 yards from mortality, I’ll Have Another blew by him for the win. Bodemeister was great, but not 1-1/4 miles great, and that is my concern about Always Dreaming as this race can set up just the way his pappy’s did in 2012. Nonetheless, he must be considered for a nice piece. Here is what he has going for him: 1) while he has just one graded stakes, Already Dreaming was big in the FLA Derby and has competed well in every race. 2) John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher. 3) Vast improvement in the FLA Derby with a 97 Beyer. 4) Great work for the race. 5) Six lifetime starts coming into this a big plus. Let’s see if he takes the next step—the most giant of all. THE FAVE at 4-1 as of 6 PM Eastern time on May 5.

#1 Lookin’ At Lee……Here I go again touting the second best deep closer in the field, yet the horse’s speed remains questionable and, while I think his recent rides were stinkers, how much of the clumsiness had to do with the horse? Factor for me is Lanerie and the lousy one hole, the same pit his father, Lookin At Lucky, dug out of to rally for 6^th place in his Derby. Lanerie knows every inch of this track and is a bonifide member of the Calvin Borel Ride the Rail Club, so take that into consideration. Despite the past drowsiness, what else I like about the lad is 1) his closing style, 2) his improvement last out, 3) his Beyer improvement in every race since his first 4) his back class and pedigree 5) he is a contender for being “at” the lead at the eighth pole. I will put a lesser bet to win, with emphasis on place and show. Do not dismiss for unders. If this ends up being a moderate pace, and it certainly might be, you can forget Lee as a winner of this race. 25-1 as of 6PM Eastern time.

#10 Gunnevera….There was more boo-hooing about his performance in the Florida Derby than Hillary supporters after the election. Get over it, folks. Gunnevera will compete and compete as one of the few true closers in the race. At 15-1 ML, there should be no excuse for not putting this horse in your somewhere’s, if not for win. While I am not a huge believer in bounces for three-year olds---I find bouncy-bouncy as more an excuse for jilted backers—he did fall off the bed a bit in the Florida Derby never looking right in the paddock and to the trip to the gate. Here is what I like: 1) His single work at Churchill will not resemble anything Secretariat did in training, but what he achieved at GP to train for this is good stuff. 2) Castellano in the irons, aside from the FLA D, Gunnevera has improved each time out with the J-man handling the strap.  3) Sire, Dialed In, having some solid 3-year old offspring success, as have many of the Mineshaft family. 4) He could be the horse that catches the leaders at the top of the stretch and runs home for fun. As with Lookin at Lee, a moderate pace throws this horse off kilter for a win. Down to 9-1 as of 6 PM Eastern on May 5.

#16 Taprwrit…..I am still dizzy from the smell of his Blue Grass when he finished a very paltry 5^th and a more disturbing 11 plus behind. Tapwrit looked tepid out of the gate and it seemed to take a half mile before he realized he was in a horse race. His record coming into the BG was 5/3-1-0 with Beyer improvement each time out. After looking at the BG race again, I am going to toss and hope he has a better day on May 6.  What I like? 1) He can handle the distance. 2) JOrtiz is good, especially with Todd. The combo is 24% wins in 83 races in 2016-17. 3) A very solid work on the CD strip. 4) Three graded stakes starts.  Taprwrit looks to me as one that can electrify on this day….at 20-1 ML, and drifted up to 31-1 as of 6 PM!

#15 McCraken…..I continue to scratch my head as to why I cannot buy into this animal despite past success and pedigree. My problem is that, over the years, I’ve gotten off a horse that I have come to hate just because they’ve beaten me. Arte Schiller, I’ll Have Another and Super Saver come to mind. Here are my plays against: 1) Has he beaten anyone, aside from Tapwrit? 2) I don’t think his Beyer’s are Derby worthy (was his 95 in the Davis legit?) 3) is he capable of the distance? 4) Is he worth 5-1? 5) While he is 3 for 3 at Churchill, all wins were at age 2. Pluses? Hernandez is a jock possessed right now. I love his riding during the past year. Good work coming into this. 6-1 as of 6 PM.

#17 Irish War Cry…..As I wrote the other day, New Jersey-breds Regret, the first filly to win the Derby, in 1915, and Cavalcade, won in 1933....Can Irish War Cry be the third Jersey bred to win the Big Race? So many questions, yet he is most capable of winning the race. It’s a different time in racing. In this millennium, a Pennsylvania-bred won, and so did a slopper out of New Mexico bullrings, who shocked the world. Daddy, Curlin, won this race and the lad is one of three in this race that has hit a Beyer over 100….hitting a 101 twice! Irish War Cry has three graded stakes races on his sheet, the Wood and the Holy Bull. He won both posting 101 in each. The knocks? Of the last 30 runners to come out of the Wood, NONE have finished in the money. Also, while full fields have been the Soup DuJoor in the Derby in just the last 20 years or so, give or take a few, no horse has ever won out of post 17. Jockey Maragh is an upside as is Derby winning trainer Motion (Animal Kingdom). A definite for a sincere slice, but I don’t think for win. What a great story, if he did. 5-1 as of 6 PM.

#18 Gormley…..When he battled American Anthem in the Sham, I thought, just maybe, his heart and guts would carry him through to Derby day success. Then came the San Felipe and Oyoyoyoy! While I didn’t necessarily toss that putrid effort, I figured Gormley would improve in the Santa Anita Derby, but I didn’t think he would have enough to beat Reach the World. Well, Reach the World is celebrating Seis de Mayo and Gormley is in Kentucky. His 88 Beyer and winning time of 1.51 might be good enough for a Saturday feature race at Turfway Park, but not in this race. With a lifetime Beyer high of 94, it doesn’t look good for the son of Malibu Moon. However, I think there are so many holes in this race that, with his running style and coming way off out of 18, it’s a definite could be for a win. I will not play Gormely to win, but he is a must include for me. Nobody can deny Victor Espinoza and John Sherreffs. As of 6 PM Eastern on May 5, Gormley is 23-1.

#12 Sonneteer…..I have been following Twitter all day long and this guy and Lookin At Lee are said to be the best looking and most touted throughout the day (May 5).  Indeed, the colt has gone from 50-1 ML to 37-1, which is sort of like being the tallest midget when high odds slide down. A bit going for him starting with the Desormeux clan connections. If Exaggerator means anything to you, then sit straight. My concerns are legit with this his sixth hard knocking race in 2017 and with the Derby being Ali vs Frazier on hooves. Lest we forget the son of Midnight Lute is a maiden having run in seven virginal races without a win. Some think he can get the distance, but I have a bit of an issue with that as he seems to be a day late and a dollar short at a lifetime of 8/0-3-2. That said, a third or fourth is not impossible.

#6 State of Honor…..Another Mark Casse charge with just one career win, but always sniffing the champagne at 10/1-4-2. The Ontario-bred is out of To Honor and Serve and comes off a nice effort in the FLA Derby when he finished second. My guess is that he will be a front runner and, if he has a chance, it will be in a near-wire job. I don’t think that happens, but he does have the capable Lezcano aboard with some decent back class. 43-1.

#11 Battle of Midway…..Jerry Hollendorfer remains a classy sharpie and this colt is a good one. I just don’t think he has the speed with a career high 88 Beyer while finishing second in the SA Derby. I’ll pass, but backers will rely on marked improvement. Hot jock Prat rides at 39-1.

#3 Fast and Accurate (32-1) and #4 Untapped (61-1 & Blinkers Off)…..Monumental upset if either of these wins.

My picks:

 #14 Classic Empire… $50 win and $100 place

#2 Thunder Snow…$25 win and $50 place

$3 tri wheel: 1,2,10,14/1,2,10,14,16,17/1,2,5,9,10,16, 17,18

$1 Super wheel: 1,,2,10,14/1,2,10.14, 16 17/1,2,5,9,10,13, 16,17,18

$20 Exacta 2,14/1,10

$10 Exacta 1,10/2,14

$5 Exacta 1,2,10.14/16,17

BROW...looks like you win  the shake:

ZEBRA...Thank you for the compliment. I enjoy writing, since I have made a career of it and continue to do so. I could have done a better editing job on it.

MONTE: YOUR ALIVE!!!!!!! Good to hear from you.

TYGRE...Have TWO juleps, (and a hurricane)

FOOLS.....My calculation is $360, but I might be wrong. Check at the window.

VET....As you know, the Euros are the X factor, but I watched Thunder Snow races and he looks al the North American on the dirt.

LET'S HOPE WE ALL MAKE MONEY TODAY!!!!

Live odds link:

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/kentucky-derby-live-odds

Here is a horse wager calculator for figuring out cost of wagers:

https://www.jazzsports.ag/services/horseticketcalculator.php

So glad you got the exactor, Vet. Best I could do was a place and show on LEE, but a handsome payoff for both. Still doesn't get me to even