PREAKNESS ANALYSIS AND PICKS--PART II

Let’s start with the facts:

• Some exotics Preakness history includes the winner being 3-1 or less in 13 of the last 16 races.

• Jockey Jorge Carreno, on Conquest Mo Money, has won only one graded stakes victory in his career and that was in 2012.

• Three Straight runner ups have been 10-1 or more.

• Seven of the last eleven show horses were 10-1 or more.

• Eight of the last nine Exactas included at least one horse 5-2 or less.

• The trifecta has paid under $100 in eight of the last 20 races.    

• The Derby winner has won the Preakness 10 of the past 20 years.

• Regarding runners who did not run in the Derby……Just three of the last 33 Preakness winners didn’t run in the Derby. The three winners are noteworthy: Rachel Alexandra, Bernardini and Red Bullet.

• Here are the Derby entrants running in the Preakness: Always Dreaming, Lookin At Lee, Classic Empire, Hence and Gunnevera (Your 5 box bet?).

ODDS AS OF 6:15 Eastern on Friday, May 19

#1 Multiplier…..A talented colt out of The Factor, a sire whose offspring have proven mettle, the winner of the Illinois Derby (G-III) doesn’t seem to fit with most in the Preakness. Nonetheless, the boy has game improving with each race, including achieving a solid 94 Beyer in his last against a field of Triple A players. Lifetime 4/2-1-1 with improvement in this race possible with the added distance. While I don’t think he can win, those who follow the Preakness know, traditionally, that live longies make good underlays. Not sure why trainer Brendan Walsh (19% wins) took Jimmy Graham off, but the switch to Rosario is a big positive. 30-1 ML is worth investing a few bucks on unders and show. 23-1 as of 6.15 on May 19.

#2 Cloud Computing……Eye-opening colt for slickster Chad Brown, the lightly raced lad gets Hall of Famer Castellano, off Gunnevera, for this. Brown often finds success when putting youngsters in tough spots like this. No reason to think this guy can’t score a decent piece at 12-1 ML. While his work has been decent, I think the knock might be the distance. However, I think JJ keeps him involved as a stalker, but can he finish against Always Dreaming, Classic Empire and the known closers? Backers should keep in mind that Cloud Computing, while still learning, finished second to J Boys Echo in the Gotham, and third to Irish War Cry in the somewhat maligned Wood. Let’s see if CC has a Chad Brown epiphany, as I see this horse having a chance for a super slice. 19-1 as of 6.15 PM.

#3 Hence…..I’ve read some comments about how great it was that Hence “finished a strong 11^th” in the Derby. Is it necessary to tout the ‘tallest midget’ theory? Seems like he just never got into it dawdling in the 18^th spot before moving up. I don’t think that going from 18^th, traffic tie-ups included, to 11^th qualifies the horse as a closer, but throw it on the pile to look at later. Hence did close strong in the Sunland Derby, but keep in mind that Irap and Conquest for Mo, competing here, finished behind him. Hence will need to stay in a strong stalking position, very doable under tactician Geroux, and hope to pounce near the end, no easy task considering the ones we expect to be in the mix. Asmussen has won the Preakness with Curlin and Rachel Alexandra, and while I will give the trainer kudos for those accomplishments, I’m quite confident that Hence does not resemble those two. Not saying it’s impossible, but the “combined talents of the trainer, jockey and horse” theory applies in spades for the boy. A plus is that Hence raced in the Derby. 30-1 as of 6.15 PM.

#7 Term of Art…..Let’s find out if this son of Tiznow is here because O’Neill is the self-proclaimed genius that he thinks he is, or if the trainer’s ego and love of crab cakes brought him to Maryland. This is a horse who has done nothing noteworthy in nine career starts. The only horse of note he’s beaten is Sonneteer. That tidbit and a dollar bill will get you a Snickers bar out of a vending machine. He’s lost his last four races by a combined 38 lengths, all graded stakes. He won five back, but lost the race prior to that one by nearly 20L. This is Art’s first trip out of California, so maybe Doug wanted the frequent flyer points. I think his 30-1 odds are about 20 points under what they should be. The blowhard won this with I’ll Have Another in 2012. He gets JOrtiz, which is good, but I don’t think JEsus could win on this animal. A well-deserved 60-1 as of May 19.

#8 Senior Investment……Happy to say he was my pick in the G-III Lexington, but, for that race, it might be like selecting cargo shorts over Capris on an 80 degree day. OK. Call me cynical. Fact is, the boy has won 4 of his last 5 races. He lost in his only other graded stakes, the Louisiana Derby (G-II), finishing sixth by just 5-3/4 behind winner Girvin. Channing Hill has done a fine job riding for sharpie Kenny McPeek and, while I don’t think he can win this, Senior Investment is improving and might surprise for a morsel or so at 30-1 off Beyer improvements in each of his lifetime races. Likely coming off the pace, as he did at 11-1 in the Lexington, a Beyer in the 90s is possible, thus a chance for underling rewards. A sweet 45-1 right now……

#9 Lookin At Lee….Oh, how I wish they would rest him and point toward the Belmont, but, let’s see what he can do here. Arguably, the most improved horse on the Trail, aside for Always Dreaming, he is reminding me more of my favorite Triple Crown closer of all time, Real Quiet, with a bit of Victory Gallop thrown into the mix. Credit Corey Lanerie for his mystical ability to Boral the rail for about a mile in the Derby, which is the single-most reason he finished second. Keep in mind that this is 1-3/16, not 1-1/4, or 1-1/2, like Elmont. Also, note he hasn’t won since last August, when a two-year old…..and that was at Ellis Park, the Oakland Coliseum of race tracks. Who cares? I love the guy and his 98 Beyer in LouLou Land was earned furlong by furlong keeping his speed improvement streak alive at 10 straight races. How many horses can EVER claim that accomplishment? Can he win? Sure, with some racing luck and with AD and CE failing, but never count Lee out for a major portion as he has five places or shows in graded stakes. Corey Lanerie handles the chores again for Asmussen, so do not count him out. 10-1 as of May 19.

#10 Conquest Mo Money…..Flavor of the Week for some, another that has improved in each of his career races (5/3-2-0 lifetime). If you believe in Classic Empire, then you might want to have faith in Uncle Mo’s boy as he finished second to CE in the Arkansas Derby, a mere half-length behind with the ever-improving Lookin At Lee placing third in that race. However, this isn’t Arkansas, Dorothy, and if the distance is tricky for any of these, it might be for him most. He ran second to Hence in the Sunland Derby about four back. Note that Hence finished 11^th in the Derby. Irap also ran in the Sunland, finishing fourth, then ran 18^th in Louisville. Something for those of you backing CMM, this from Johnny D, an excellent handicapper and columnist for Xpressbet.com. “In 101 career North American career victories, trainer Miguel Hernandez has earned less purse money than Preakness second choice Classic Empire has in just eight starts—around $2 million. If you want to root for an underdog in the Preakness then put your hopes firmly behind this colt….”  Lastly, Journeyman jockey, Jorge Carreno, is capable having won more than 1,300 career races, but just one stakes. 12-1 as of May 19 and certainly worth an underbet and show bet.  If you like him, hope he gets on or near the lead and holds on for dear racing life.

My Picks:

I’m Already Dreaming of Always Dreaming in the winner’s circle. While we are far from calling him a horse for the ages, if he wins the Preakness, I think he’s on his way.

#4 Always Dreaming to win.

$4 tri: 4/5/ALL

$2 tri: 4/2,5,9/1,2,5,6,8,9,10

$10 show bets: 1, 2, 6,8,10

$10 exacta: 4/2, 9

$20 exacta 4/5

Somehow my post got messed up.....

#4 Always Dreaming…..His Derby was confident, bold and maestro-like. Visually, most impressive. Any distance issues were put aside, and based on his win in the Florida Derby and the two races prior when he won going away, I think 1-3/16 miles might be his ideal distance! He seems content as he bounced up and down the track like a wide-awake yearling this past week with no indication he’s lost interest.

Those who believe in Always Dreaming take note of what the great racing handicapper, Jon White, wrote this week for the Xpressbet.com website:

“….. not as if the sole reason Always Dreaming won the Derby is he is a wet-track specialist. He won the 1 1/8-mile Xpressbet Florida Derby on a fast track in the excellent time of 1:47 2/5 (or 1:47.47 in hundredths). It was the fastest final time in that race since Alydar’s 1:47 flat in 1978. Since Alydar, these are the only Florida Derby winners to have posted a final time faster than 1:48 flat:

Swale (1:47 3/5 in 1984)
Holy Bull (1:47 3/5 in 1994)
Unbridled’s Song (1:47 4/5 in 1996)
Quality Road (1:47 3/5 in 2009)
Always Dreaming (1:47 2/5 in 2017)

To further put Always Dreaming’s terrific 1:47 2/5 Florida Derby clocking in perspective, it was just three-fifths of a second slower than Arrogate’s track record.”

Add Johnny V and Todd combining their talents for this and there is no need for me to expound any further…….4-5 as of 6.15 PM on May 19.

#5 Classic Empire…….Can he win this? Yes. Will he win this? Maybe. If so, every star in this solar system and far off galaxies beyond might need to align to beat Always Dreaming. Classic Empire’s KY Derby was as troubled as any I’ve seen since Lookin At Lucky’s race. Bobbled and bumped out of the gate. Pinballed a couple of times. Swollen eye due to mud smacking, according to the trainer, the horse actually got as close as 4-3/4L behind the leader before finishing fourth 8-3/4L back. According to Trakus via Trainer Casse’s comments this week, Classic Empire ran 75 feet farther than the winner and 90 feet farther than Lookin At Lee (CE finished 6L behind Lee).  As “gallant” as Classic Empire was in finishing fourth, he passed a few dead ones, and while he “traveled further” than the winner and second place finisher, even if he had a clean trip, I just don’t think he would have been good enough to beat Always Dreaming. Nonetheless, he fits, but will need all to come together. If Always Dreaming decides to take the day off, I think he’s your guy, but, in any case, he’s got to run with Already Dreaming to have a chance.  5-2 odds.

#6 Gunnevera……A swashbuckler no more! I thought his Derby stunk and maybe his trainer rose to his potential, which is polished mediocrity, with the horse running parallel to his $16K Keeneland sale price. Gunnevera regressed to a third consecutive Beyer drop, yet I read that Sano hasn’t changed his training regimen. That’s like a heart attack victim taking on a diet of red meat and ice cream. Ridiculous. Wonder why Castellano took off of him in favor of Cloud Computing? I guess I am just so disappointed in how this horse has performed, so much so that I have lost all faith in him. He does get Mike Smith, a huge plus, but will there be enough real estate after pace for Gunnevera to close? Smith won on the ill-fated Prairie Bayou in 1993. Another plus is that Gunnevera (15-1 ML) ran in the Derby. He’ll need to be totally on it to get some. I will include under and for show just because seven of the last eleven show horses were 10-1 or more. 10-1 as of 6.15 PM.

VET ...First of all, the purses are woefully low at Arlington. Ten years ago, we were racing for $250,000 or ore per day. Today, they're running for $120,000-$140,000 per day in total purse money.

They get OK on-track handles, but nobody outside of the track at the various OTBs and other betting facilities around the country are betting Arlington's short fields. That is killing them as far as they're making any money from off track facilities. In addition, Illinois has the ridiculous "recapture" rule where the track takes an extraordinary "commission," of sorts, out of the purse money. That screws both the horsemen and the bettors. Racing here is all but dead and AP and their parent, CDI, are doing a great job of killing it! That's why I am out of Illinois racing.

Thanks for the kind comments, guys.

Quote Originally Posted by vetdrm:

Well lets hope when I see you at the Million,its a banner day

Yes....see you at the Million.

I was at the debacle at Wrigley yesterday....horrible weather. 43 degrees and rain all day, but I stuck it out. More of the same today with lousy weather, more rain and cold.. Your Brewers look pretty darned good!

Thanks Tygre...why not? Looks as good as any bet out there.....

Quote Originally Posted by Midnight1:

Great data mikey. Hope we have a shot for another Triple Crown.

Great info you provided, Mid! Thanks