Posted:
#1
SANTA ANITA
RACE 1: 4 - EDITORE. This horse was very rank through the first half mile in his last and still had some nice run down the stretch. Totally capable of being forwardly placed in this short field without much speed, and I expect him to sit second behind the 1. How I got here: I'm tossing Doug O'neill's two entries here, which wouldn't shock me if it ends up being a mistake, but given their running styles and this short field, I'll take the gamble that they're both field fillers. The 5 got a hot pace in which all the speeds faded badly and he still couldn't win. Given the lack of speed and higher quality closers, I dont love his chances. The 6 is off a long layoff and should most likely be using this race to move forward off of. I'm gonna bet on a merry-go-round here and play the 1,4 all over.
RACE 2: 1 - PICTURE TUBE. There is not much speed in here which scares me, but I'm gonna try and beat the money burning favorite MONTEREY SHALE anyway. I have to think that the 3 is gonna go forward and either challenge the 2 or sit off of him, but given how wide Picture Tube was throughout in his last, I think with the inside post this time around he could make a premature move to get in the race and still carry the momentum through, in other words I think he could be the much best horse in here to overcome a poor pace scenario. For sequences, use the 3 defensively, but I think the two top choices should certainly get you out of here.
RACE 4: 5 - KENDA. I think this one is in the sharpest form with the most eligibility to improve, and despite being first against winners, this one is my top pick. I just don't trust the form of anyone else in the field, as I don't argue that many in here have faced better of recent and simply have a better foundation, but that doesn't always translate to a win. I think KENDA has been getting better every start, especially since being introduced to the downhill turf.
RACE 7: 3 - NOTED AND QUOTED. I'm gonna trust that Baffert entering Faypien in here is a way to put some pressure on what will be a tough to beat and deserving favorite in the 4 SELCOURT. This could be another redemption ride on the turnback just like yesterday with American Anthem. I think this horse is best going around one turn and as long as he can get some pace to run at, I expect a big finish today. Definitely use the 4 defensively because if nobody makes an honest effort to go with him, Selcourt could be long gone if improved at all. I think an exacta box with 3,4 is a good play.
RACE 8: 5 - UNUSUAL FLEET. I love the work pattern coming up to this off a freshening. He finished well in last while starting a little slow and never really having the most comfortable of trips, and I think a sharper performance today could get him home first. I'm hoping the 2 and maybe someone else can deliver enough pressure to the 4 for the 5 to come off the pace, as both the 2 and 4 have never shown the ability to pass horses or do anything else but go gate to wire. Everyone else seems capable of stalking, so I do fear the 4 being the best, but he is off a long layoff in a lower level race and I don't want a short priced favorite here. My price horse would be the 7 OH NEWMAN for Mike Puype. Maybe he can re-gain some turf form under Puype's care and sit a nice stalking trip as this race does smell of one that could deliver a bomb.
GRADE B BETS:
RACE 1: WIN/PLACE 4 - EDITORE
EXACTA BOX: 1,4
RACE 2: WIN 1 - PICTURE TUBE
RACE 4: WIN 5 - KENDA
RACE 7: WIN 3 - NOTED AND QUOTED
RACE 8: WIN 5 - UNUSUAL FLEET
WIN/PLACE(small) 7 - OH NEWMAN
GL TO ALL!
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