Santa Anita Park - 11/1 and 11/2

friday

race 1

OC 40K N1X 3YO and up *6.5F (Downhill Turf)

8 WP

8/1 ml.  recency, late speed, distance, stamina, pace.  never been down the hill and is 1/11 lifetime with 4 seconds.  i'm looking for this one to create a pretty nice setup for a horse from off the pace in this full field of twelve.  like how he's spruced up since september 1st after a rugged spring/summer campaign and comes in with four solid drills.  he should be very fit.  on figs this horse looks a tad light since he doesn't have any turf sprinting figs but his two turn turf figs are quite competitive here as are his 7/8ths and mile moves on the main oval.  i'm focusing on his races at 8F and 8.5F on the green.  he bombed in one of them and had to steady twice at a short price.  in the other four he showed strong late energy every time and did not have to come from the clouds.  sprinting on dirt he was close to the pace.  never been down the hill but bejarano certainly has.  i feel he can sit within a reasonable range and really kick it into gear late.  i think this field is very vulnerable late in the lane.  1.0 units.

Friday:

I like races 1, 5, 7, 8, and 9.  Probably pass race 10 it looks pretty chalky to me.

Saturday:

I like races 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12.

Will also play Saturday's late P4. 

race 5

G2 3YO 9F (Turf)

11 WP

12/1 ml.  pattern, late speed, distance.  really swinging for the fences here as there are plenty of reasons on paper to avoid this horse.  only three spins here in the U.S., none have a fig that beats this field, and a history of layoffs.  i'm willing to project forward here and toss his last with the saddle slipping under frenchie.  tossing the last i like his improving pattern and consistent late energy he shows closing a lot of ground in races with big, competitive fields.  in this race he gets an added furlong off his win two back and a full field of twelve to set up some pace.  if the added ground here helps him take another step forward (only been around two turns three times and is a 3YO) then he could be pretty competitive here in a field that runs primarily in the upper 80's and low 90's.  Sadler put him through an aggressive sequence of six drills since the saddle disaster and had him moving the right way prior to that so i am projecting he is fit and ready and pointed to this specifically when he is easily eligible for much softer company.  I'm going to take a shot he sits chilly in the back (11 hole breaking all the way behind the dirt in Arcadia gives plenty of time to slide in to the rail) and then just tries to make one big move and get all the way up.  1.0 units.   

In race 5 i think we'll have not a garbage favorite but an overrated fav.  the 7 got a 103 last out but i'm not buying it.  the splits hit 1:18.4 and 1:46.4 (for a mile yikes!) and they stumbled home in over two minutes for 9F.  i know it was rated soft but that is still extremely slow and he never ran a fig like that before in his ten prior starts.  people will bet him big because of that fig. 

the others have run betwen the low 80's generally and up to a 94 (the 2 and 12) but nobody is consistently running over 90.  that range, full field, variance, and a variety of other factors tells me this sucker could be very wide open.  also has a handful of horses that like to get out early to set the table potentially. 

santa anita

4/1 not bad i guess.  i thought they would stick more on 11, 6, and 3.  nice setup and this stiff mowed them down late.

yes i stayed on it.  i was in a business meeting actually watched it on my phone i only caught the last furlong or so.  you might want to just consider keeping in mind these races are very difficult.  hopefully i make good decisions.  big fields don't make it tough.  big fields with several horses that can definitely win makes it brutally tough.  some of these twelve horse fields have six, seven, or eight that can win

Splids.  great work.

yikes.  something wrong there.  basically eased the last 3/8ths.  another chalkie doesn't win. 

race 7

G1 BC Juvenile Turf 2YO 8F (Turf)

9 WP

8/1 ml.  recency, pace, pattern.  extremely difficult race with 2YO on the lawn and a full field.  i'm taking a shot.  i like the comments showing he dealt with some challenges and kept running hard home in all of his races except two.  his debut wasn't great and he didn' fire wearing the shades in a twenty-four horse field in June. like his last a G1 at Longchamp going about 7/8ths he was moving well late.  three straight triple digit RPRs and an overall improving pattern.  never been around two turns and never been this far so i am projecting.  also of note of the euros he has had the most time since his last and the others come back a bit too quick for my preference ideally.  could improve nicely getting more ground and extremely firm turf.  almost all of them could win here fellas.  i'm playing this with this 9 being in a stalk and pounce position with a chance to fire home at the top of the lane.  i'll give him a shot.  1.0 units. 

race 8

G1 BC Dirt Mile 3YO and Up 8F

11 WP

9/1 on the board.  recency, pace, speed.  1.25 units. 

a couple bad steps and checking on the far turn and goodbye and goodnight.  another chalkie goes down.

race 9

G1 Juvenile Fillies Turf 8F (Turf)

8 WP

8/1 on the tote.  recency, late speed, distance, stamina.  1.0 units.

santa anita

7/1 winner. there we go

splids