Santa Anita Park - 11/1 and 11/2

race 10

G1 BC Distaff F&M 3YO and Up 9F

3 WP

7/1 on the board.  recency, pace, pattern.  obviously she needs to pop a lifetime high here and she's 5/7 lifetime, lightly raced, and 2nd off the bench off a pretty cozy/easy G1 win.  doesn't need to come from the clouds which as you can see is imperative on this concrete surface/conveyor belt.  i'm giving her a shot to give this a good fight and make some noise.  0.75 units. 

2nd at 7/1.  i felt this horse ran really, really well.  oh well.  couldn't catch the horse that had that lead at the furlong pole. 

race 1 - winner paid 4/1

race 5 - horse eased basically.  something went wrong.

race 7 - horse took two bad steps on the turn and checked and was done from that point.

race 8 - got blasted off the track late by the 2nd choice that went wire to wire.  tried to make a move and fell apart.  easy now to say bad bet but not every so called "speed" horse ran big today but Goldencents did so.

race 9 - winner at 7/1.

race 10 - 2nd at 7/1.

ROI +190%

Try for better decisions tomorrow.  Flip flopped a few including the 4 in race 7 who won at 6/1.  Splids was on the 4. 

My notes on the surfaces:

Turf - very, very fair and extremely fast.  I love it personally.

Dirt - the thing that stands out to me about the bias is not the times it is the huge challenge it seems to be for anyone to make up ground.  i point to race 8 as a reference.  the final time was slow for a G1 with older horses in my view but the opening half was a real sizzler.  so basically the winner blasted out, opened up, and held on.  but in the BC Distaff a horse that was stalking finished 1st and 2nd but all in all nobody came from more than a couple lengths back at the quarter pole to even hit the board.

saturday

race 3

G3 F&M 3YO and up *6.5F (Downhill Turf)

10 WP

8/1 ml.  recency (straight and reverse/fresh), late speed, pattern, pace, distance, stamina.  i'm taking a shot here not unlike yesterday's first race where i see this race potentially setting up for a horse to mow down the "speed" in that final furlong.  i like the bold placement here into open company in a G3 after a vigorous spring/summer campaign in restricted stakes.  like how mullins spruced her up since August 18th as she tailed off a bit and brings her back today with five strong drills in tow.  mullins is 16% off a 61-180 break, 21% going route/sprint, and 21% on turf and 18% in graded stakes.  she is a bit light on figs sprinting on the green versus the favs in here but since those spins she has improved meaningfully.  also fired fresh last fall off a break going down the hill and again this April off a break (sprinting on the lawn in inglewood not down this hill).  her figs recently going two turns on the lawn in my view make her very competitive here and she was in a nice stalking position and should not necessarily have to come from the clouds today.  that speed/pace/stamina combo around two turns could potentially have her flying down the lane full of gas in the tank and energy.  big field, very tough race, i'll give her a shot to mow them all down late.  1.0 units.   

dud.  too far back and didn't fire.  13-3 finish.

race 4

G1 BC Juvenile Fillies 2YO 8.5F

6 WP

15/1 on the tote.  recency, pace, pattern.  0.75 units.