Sunland Park - 3/25

hope you all are doing well.  was on the sidelines but looked at this contest and think it's worth a shot.  0.75/0.75 play for me.  the 1 is an obvious fav the tote board will tell you that of course.  the 6 will get play as well.  the "other" Baffert won't sneak by anyone and will prolly be down around 5/2ish.  i'll be quite surprised if the players send much through the windows in the direction of the 5, 7, and 8 but you never know.  horse I am playing could be 9/2ish. 

race 12

G3 Sunland Derby 3YO 1 1/8 Miles Dirt

2 WP

Recency - Overall the 1 and 6 have an edge here based on solid performances last out but nobody really has a big edge on Recency.  The 2 rates well here from my standpoint and in this particular situation I like the fact that he has not run since February 5th.  Switch to Pletch and has had time to absorb the big win going a mile (which I realize was only one turn at GP).  Pletch sent him out five straight times since then the last four being 5/8ths moves.  Drills don't make you jerk off but they are steady and they don't move very fast at Palm Meadows.  He should be physically fit, healthy, and willing to put in a good effort.  after that has to prove he is good enough.

Late Speed - At this distance and with these young fellas realize I have to project forward here on late speed.  None of them have shown me anything going 8F or 8.5F that says they will explode at this distance.  On overall speed the 2 has run a 91 and 88 in the last two which stacks up quite well versus these.  two back going 6.5 the line shows he flattened a bit but he was chasing a real toughie.  last out he pretty much cruised home late with some good energy.  I am projecting forward that he will show strong late speed versus this competition.  everything is relative but you have to try and project. 

Pattern - I like this pattern.  yeah, yeah, yeah I know he only beat MSW last out.  Like how they rested him a little after that and did not chase a G2 within a couple weeks.  Switch to Pletch after private purchase.  Like how he almost matched his top fig when stretched out.  Would have preferred making a new high fig but if that were the case he's 4/5 today and not 9/2ish.  Like that his first start for pletch is all the way to 9F. 

Speed/Pace/Stamina/Class/Distance/Surface - No issues on surface.  fits very well on speed and pace.  Needs to answer the bell on distance and stamina.  although the 6 has a win at 9F that was tapeta synth and note they ran that 6 four straight times at a flat mile on the lawn.  In my mind they all have to answer it on distance.  All but the two favs (1 and 6) have to answer the bell on class as well.  This 2 could be pretty solid in terms of pace.  he doesn't need to go out front but he should be able to position himself nicely.  At the top of the lane he has to prove he has it in the tank and move home with energy and enthusiasm at this distance.  what I am saying is he shouldn't be far back and praying for a miracle late.  no excuses on pace.

J/T Combo - Pletch.  velazquez.  they connect at 30% and yes they do pad their stats with chalk but they also win competitive races.  Pletch is 25% off a 31-60 day break.  I don't see it as an edge though with Pletch/Johnny V.  this isn't filled with a bunch of stiffs there are very competent J/T combos here.

Breeding - This is a race where I do indeed consider breeding.  Young fellas going longer than they have.  None of them have breeding that jumps out at me.  The 2 is out of Distorted Humor who has been a fantastic sire.  More importantly to me, though some of the Distorted Humor's are better sprinting plenty of them have gone long.  Dam Sire is AP Indy so should get gas in the tank from that.  Some winning sibs as well.  Nothing fabulous but not a red flag.

like I said should have the race right there for him as they turn for home.  Needs to step up and prove it here today.  He could fade that is possible.  He could also run well. 

Good luck    

ATLAS...I am on the 2 as well, but this one is wide open for a bunch of reasons!

#2 never been 2 turns that scares me off of him

5th at 5/1 on the board.

https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/SUN032512USA12.pdf

I just now watched the replay.  Sunday I was out all day I just checked the results on my phone.  Well that certainly wasn't one of John Velazquez' finer moments.  Why on earth did he send this horse out to battle with Baffert's chalk?  I don't want to hear an excuse about the 2 slot.  It's possible the horse wouldn't relax but I find it hard to believe he could not have done a better job of holding him back a little bit.  Didn't he take home a few Eclipse awards. 

Even legit G1 caliber older horses by today's modest standards will have trouble finishing a 9F race if they are out front going in 1:10 and change. 

Yup.  Definitely a risk I was aware of and assumed in exchange for some price.  You were right.  Nice call on the 6.  I certainly gave him a shot to nail them all late but I expected the 2 to sit a couple lengths off the zip and put in a good effort late and maybe hold on.  Once they went nuts up front your 6 was licking his chops.  Nice hit.  Went off above where I thought.  I had the 6 around 8/5 or so but they faded him a little bit. 

According to Brisnet, the pace of this race was slow for the final time. 

They say it was -3 thru four furlongs and  -9 thru six furlongs.  Every 2 points equals a length (or fifth of a second approximately).   So the race was 1.5 fifths slow to the half and 4.5 fifths slow to six furlongs for a race with a final time of 148 and 2 fifths at this track.

BRISNET RACE SHAPES EXPLANATION

So apparently about 46 to the half and 1:10 thru six furlongs is normal (par) for a race that ends in 1:48 and 2 at Sunland.

Ender Knieval's past performances are on page 40   LINK

I see what you are saying Grey and I respect the Bris data and all the work the people there do every day to put out a nice product. 

One thing I would ask is how many 9F races they actually run each year at Sunland?  My gut tells me the sample size is small.  Also I think (but don't know) that this is the only 9F graded event at Sunland each year.  This isn't a knock on Sunland just my sense.

Also, the winner got a Beyer of 100 which stacks up quite favorably with other preps run so far.  I give all the credit in the world to the 4 and the 6 in this race.  They took advantage of horses in front that couldn't finish and they went eye to eye to the wire.

What I saw is two horses (the 1 and the 2) that went out front and ran at a pace through 6F that is beyond their natural ability to run without exerting themsevles too much to the point where they have very little left late.  Not making an excuse for the 2 just simply saying he is probably not physically capable of going in 1:10 in a 9F race and still having the punch needed late to get it done.  Had he relaxed a bit and sat just off the leader or leaders he would have had a lot more to offer late.  Also, when they "lock up" and run right next to each other battling that can take a lot of energy out of them which is why I expected Velazquez to sit just a couple lengths back and then make the move.   

I am not going to ignore that winner.  two straight 9F wins on two different surfaces at two different locations with his speed fig jumping each time.  Plus Asmussen ain't no dummy. 

It could be a small sample size, I've thought about that also.   It's not only 9 furlong races, it's 9 furlong races that end in 1:48 and 2.

But Brisnet has been around for quite awhile so who knows how much data they have.

But I do know that "race shapes" seems like a fairly accurate stat.   Like I said before, I have watched a lot of replays and the announcer usually confirms it in his call when "race shapes" says the pace of the race is either fast or slow.  

The announcer at Sunland was kind of insinuating that it was a fast paced race but he didn't really say it.    

Both Castaway and Ender Knievel went faster to the half mile at Sunland in a 9 furlong race than they did in their previous race at 8 furlongs.

Castaway had an 82 pace rating for four furlongs at Oaklawn (8 fur) and a 90 rating for four furlongs at Sunland (9 fur).

Ender Knievel had an 80 rating for four furlongs at Gulfstream (8 fur) and a 90 for four furlongs at Sunland (9 fur).

So they probably were going too fast for their own good.   Although overall according to Brisnet it wasn't that fast of a pace for 9 furlongs at Sunland. 

And if you look at their position at the stretch call at Sunland which is the mile marker in a 9 furlong race,  they were both already dead at that point.